Trade Opportunity Case Study of the Week: PLTR 21ema Pullback and Range Breakout – | April, 2025

The Trade Opportunity

The purpose of this weekly article is to analyze the top trading opportunity of the past week. This is to improve our identification and execution of high quality trade ideas that meet our setup requirements.

Each article will focus on a stock that meets one of three of the main categories of setups I trade:

• Range Breakout / VCP / tight area breakout
• Pullback to Support/ Key moving average
• Gapper / Post Gap Setup

These articles are like taking a step into the batting cage and loading up a historical at bat from an Ace pitcher in the world series – they will help you prepare and execute in future situations by studying important moments from the past.

The setups we cover will appear again and again in each market cycle

So far we have covered these case studies:
Previous article covering the BE Day 1 Gapper Setup
Previous article covering the AI Day 3 Gapper Setup
Previous article covering the DOCS Post Gap Range Breakout Setup
Previous article covering the ALAB Range Breakout Setup
Previous article covering the NVCR Range Breakout Setup
Previous Article on QMCO Range Breakouts
Previous Article on CRNC Episodic Pivot
Previous Article on VST 10 EMA Pullback
Previous Article on HIMS Range Breakout
Previous Article on TEM Opening Range Breakout
Previous Article on U Gapper Day 1 Setup
Previous Article on Okta Earnings Gapper
Previous Article on QBTS Catalyst Gapper
Previous Article on CELH Inside Day Breakout
Previous Article on SQQQ Oops Reversal

I also have the following Educational Articles which expand more on Setups/Entry Tactics. This is relevant to today’s discussion
Oops Reversal Entry Tactic

Please let me know in the comments what other topics you would like me to write about.

This past week the QQQ gapped lower before closing well Monday and rallying the rest of the week.

PLTR pulled into the 21ema forming a range below the double bottom mid point pivot before gapping up and following through. Overall it was up 20% on the week

Discovery

How would you get PLTR on your radar? Liek CRWD last week it is always one of the top liquid growth stock names I consider to trade. Whenever NVDA TSLA COIN CRWD HOOD PLTR RDDT and similar are working they are a focus.

PLTR also has been one of the strongest names when you sort by % change since the April 7 Low. Whenever we start a rally I like to sort my screens by the price % change over X days in Deepvue. With X being the number of days since the bottom. This identifies the names that are bouncing the strongest. PLTR also held above the 200 sma during the correction, in contrast with most growth names.

The knock against PLTR being a new leader is that it has already risen 1000% in the last 2 years. However what seems high can always go higher.

PLTR has also been covered extensively in the Trade Lab reports and should have been top of your watchlists. Here it was last weekend before the recent move.

Setup and Execution

The week started our with a market gap down. When this occurs I’m watching the strongest names at constructive areas for a low risk entry versus the low of the day.

PLTR immediately showed RS versus the market with a rally attempt but did roll over with the market which continued to decline. However aggressive traders could have put on positions or starter positions at S3 after PLTR undercut the piror day lows and the QQQ pulled into S5.

These positions could have had very tight stops and would have risen about 1.6% to end the day. For a starter position this is about the minimum cushion I would require to hold through but also it was good to see the market as a whole doing the same so short momentum was to the upside.

Here is Monday’s action in CRWD on a 5 minute chart

Here is the action on the daily chart. See how the low of the day and S3 also lined up with the 21ema. Strong confluence

The next day we gapped up and looked to follow through. The AVWAP reclaim entry gave tight risk and you had 2% cushion by EOD. Entering anywhere else such as on a intraday base you likely were stopped. The AVWAP entry also lined up with the pivot. The fact we could not trend above R1 suggested it would be a consolidation day

5 Minute Chart:

Here is the action on a daily chart

Note how this is a constructive inside day within a 21 ema pullback. Inside days “prime” mature setups so even if not entering in anticipation of a move this would be on your radar the next day for a breakout.

Here was my note in the trade lab report

The next day PLTR gapped up with the market. It paused at he range pivot then moved higher. The entry was on the AVWAP reclaim or looking at the daily right as it broke through the range pivot with risk LOD. Cushion by the end of the day was 1.5%

Here is the action on the daily chart.

On Thursday PLTR Followed through and set up likely the last low risk entry points yielding 5% or 3% cushions

Here is the action on the 5 minute cahrt

And here it is again on the daily. The pivot retest entries would be up about 15%

PLTR has shown great strength in this recent move. However we are now a bit short term extended.

The expectation for anyone holding shares would be we could pull back to the 10 ema and it would be completely normal. However if it violates the recent pivot breakout that woudl be abnormal action.

A 10 ema pullback would be a chance to add some shares if it shows respect and for anyone not in just yet woudl be the next low risk buy point.

Ideally PLTR forms a tight range sideways and lets the 10 ema catch up naturally.