Trade Opportunity Case Study of the Week: CELH Inside Day Range Breakout – | Mar 22, 2025

The Trade Opportunity

The purpose of this weekly article is to analyze the top trading opportunity of the past week. This is to improve our identification and execution of high quality trade ideas that meet our setup requirements.

Each article will focus on a stock that meets one of the three main categories of setups I trade:

• Range Breakout / VCP / tight area breakout
• Pullback to Support/ Key moving average
• Gapper / Post Gap Setup

These articles are like taking a step into the batting cage and loading up a historical at bat from an Ace pitcher in the world series – they will help you prepare and execute in future situations by studying important moments from the past.

The setups we cover will appear again and again in each market cycle

So far we have covered these case studies:
Previous article covering the BE Day 1 Gapper Setup
Previous article covering the AI Day 3 Gapper Setup
Previous article covering the DOCS Post Gap Range Breakout Setup
Previous article covering the ALAB Range Breakout Setup
Previous article covering the NVCR Range Breakout Setup
Previous Article on QMCO Range Breakouts
Previous Article on CRNC Episodic Pivot
Previous Article on VST 10 EMA Pullback
Previous Article on HIMS Range Breakout
Previous Article on TEM Opening Range Breakout
Previous Article on U Gapper Day 1 Setup
Previous Article on OKTA Gapper Day 1 Setup
Previous Article on QBTS Episodic Pivot


I also have the following Educational Articles which expand more on Setups/Entry Tactics.
Oops Reversal Entry Tactic

Please let me know in the comments what other topics you would like me to write about.

This past week the Market continued to build out and ended constructively Friday. We will see if we can follow through up. I would recommend reading the educational article I wrote on how to trade a market rally

Here are stock moves worth reviewing from this past week: CELH ARQT GRPN AU CRK ADMA WGS PLTR

ARQT Outside day and flag breakout Monday.

GRPN short range breakout post gap, really the best entry would be Day 1 or Day 2 through the HVC

AU Miners have been strong, nice low risk entry that was highlighted in the report.

CRK 21ema reclaim and move from the range Monday, still acting constructively up the right side of the base

ADMA 10ema pullback and upside reversal

WGS 21ema reclaim and follow through

PLTR level pullback and the 21ema reclaim friday

Today we will be focusing on CELH which had a Range Breakout from an inside day

Discovery

To get CELH on your radar you would want to be tracking momentum leaders and stocks showing RS.

CELH was featured on the Deepvue Leaders screen was in the top 10 ranked by 1 month Absolute Strength Rating last weekend before this move https://x.com/RichardMoglen/status/1900900440331694105

For swing traders this is a golden way to track potential momentum candidates to see if they are setup in ranges like CELH was

Here is what CELH looked like on the weekend. It had been in a sharp decline for quite a while before starting to develop a bottom. It had broken above the MAs and had since forming a range and 21ema pullback with an inside day.

It’s a fast mover and given the character of the stock more suited for swing trading. You woudl want to have alerts set at the 21ema and just below the inside day high to be ready for a breakout move.

Setup and Execution

The setup for CELH was a range breakout

For these we are looking for a push through a pivot while managing risk usually at the low of the day of entry.

On Monday the entry was as CELH broke above the inside day high. Risk could be managed very tightly less than 2% position stop.

Risking 0.5% of the portfolio this would correspond to a max size of 25%.

Here is the 65 min timeframe and 5 minute timeframe. It broke out on high relative volume right at the open and trended above the AVWAP all day.

If you missed the initial push the AVWAP pullback and intraday base breakout were potential entry points but the best was right off the open

After the breakout day CELH acted perfect. it paused Tuesday, reconfirmed Wednesday, paused Thursday, Reconfirmed Friday -Textbook momentum move.

It ended the week about 18% higher from the inside day breakout

Swing Traders would be looking to sell a bit into Day 1 strength and a bit into the reconfirmations on Wed and Fri especially considering CELH was approaching the Base Pivot, a likely spot for a longer pause/pullback.

Here it is on a 65min chart. Note the expansion contraction expansion pattern.