Trade Opportunity Case Study of the Week: CRWD Oops Reversal & Mean Reversion Trade – | April, 2025

The Trade Opportunity

The purpose of this weekly article is to analyze the top trading opportunity of the past week. This is to improve our identification and execution of high quality trade ideas that meet our setup requirements.

Each article will focus on a stock that meets one of three of the main categories of setups I trade:

• Range Breakout / VCP / tight area breakout
• Pullback to Support/ Key moving average
• Gapper / Post Gap Setup

These articles are like taking a step into the batting cage and loading up a historical at bat from an Ace pitcher in the world series – they will help you prepare and execute in future situations by studying important moments from the past.

The setups we cover will appear again and again in each market cycle

So far we have covered these case studies:
Previous article covering the BE Day 1 Gapper Setup
Previous article covering the AI Day 3 Gapper Setup
Previous article covering the DOCS Post Gap Range Breakout Setup
Previous article covering the ALAB Range Breakout Setup
Previous article covering the NVCR Range Breakout Setup
Previous Article on QMCO Range Breakouts
Previous Article on CRNC Episodic Pivot
Previous Article on VST 10 EMA Pullback
Previous Article on HIMS Range Breakout
Previous Article on TEM Opening Range Breakout
Previous Article on U Gapper Day 1 Setup
Previous Article on Okta Earnings Gapper
Previous Article on QBTS Catalyst Gapper
Previous Article on CELH Inside Day Breakout
Previous Article on SQQQ Oops Reversal

I also have the following Educational Articles which expand more on Setups/Entry Tactics. This is relevant to today’s discussion
Oops Reversal Entry Tactic

Please let me know in the comments what other topics you would like me to write about.

This past week the put in a reversal Monday and a huge bar Wednesday before tightening to end the week

There were several names which set up double bottom type patterns with a key low forming monday and then reconfirmation wedneday. We will have to see if the basee keep prgressing with higher lows.

PLTR was my second choice to focus on this week

Hood very strong

Discovery

How would you get CRWD on your radar? For me it is always one of the top liquid growth stock names to trade. Whenever NVDA TSLA COIN CRWD HOOD PLTR RDDT and similar are working they are a focus.

CRWD got back on my radar Tuesday as it and many other cyber names like RBRK were holding up well near their 200 smas.

Setup and Execution

The earliest buy point would have been monday on the Oops Reversal. Talk that weekend was very negative and a mean reversion move was in play.

For that type of move focusing on liquid names that can move or simply ETFs is often the way to go.

Going into Monday you would have to be expecting the potential for a gap down reversal up and had names ready to trade if that occurred.

Here is Monday’s action in CRWD on a daily.

Here is the Oops reversal day on a 5 minute, you had 3 main opportunities around the opening range with risk managed under 3%. CRWD never retested these areas. At the close the entries would be up about 6.5%. Enough to hold at least some through although in that type of environment you are risking large gap downs.

The next day we gapped up and looked to follow through. Depending how aggressive (or defensive you can think about it) likely you would be selling some into strength.

The goal on quick reversals trades liek this is not to double your money or to catch a low, but to profit from quick moves and re-evaluate.

CRWD eventually lost the VWAP and began trending down. At this point I would likely be selling the rest of my position knowing the environment to just lock in the gains I have. There are times to try to hold for a bigger move, volatile news driven action is not really one of them.

The next day CRWD rally before setting up an intraday base. There was a tight and logical entry on an AVWAP reclaim.

The real entry however was after the news catalyst of the tariff pause announcement.

The big difficulty is here is that everything ripped in just a few minutes, you would have to have been at your computer and ready and very quick to enter an order.

In hindsight it looks easy, just buy on the break of the pivot, but was very difficult to execute in the moment.

Taking into account slippage and entering near the high of that 5 min bar you could have managed your risk with about a 3% stop at the low of that bar. If the news was real that low should not be violated.

CRWD closed near highs that day up about 8.5%. Again depending on your aggressiveness taking profits there would be prudent given the news based nature of the market and maybe only holding half for a further move.

The next two days CRWD pulled back, never testing your cost and tightening. It is now setup at the close of the big Wednesday’s daily bar.

Here is the action on a daily chart

Note how we are also at a key level form the prior base and just below the 50sma. Relative Measured Volatiliy (RMV) has also gone to 0. This is a make it or break it moment.

I could envision either a gap & go / strong expansion up from this point, or a reversal down and move basing. This is the spot where CRWD needs to prove itself. We are still very early up the right side here but at a potentially strong risk reward spot.

If we get a Monday gap up you can look to play it

• Right off the open managing risk at low of the day
• On a AVWAP reclaim/range breakout in the opening range base managing risk at a higher low or low of the day
• On an intraday base breakout or further AVWAP reclaim later after a move up.

IF this happens I would always be looking to manage risk around a 1-3% stop as CRWD could easily roll over from a gap up as well.

Signs of it rolling over would be a loss of the daily AVWAP that is not reclaimed, trending below the intraday 21ema, breaking opening range lows etc. Then it would be no touch and watching for the next spot.