Stay Nimble – New Rally Attempt Day 1
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
March 7, 2025
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Market Action
QQQ – Strong Upside Reversal action with a good close to end the week. At lows we reached a correction drawdown of about 11%. Negativity seemed to be picking up. We are still in the key area to hold, just under the 200sma. This is now day 1 of a new rally attempt with today’s low being a new key level.
How to Trade a Market Rally? Read my educational Article on Trading Market Rallies from this past weekend.
The short term expectation based on today’s close and recent action is consolidation or higher. Volatility up or down to be expected. We need to start seeing follow through if this rally is going to hold.
Bulls want to see us follow through up higher and start forming higher lows
Bears want to see a failed rally at the declining MAs and eventually an undercut of today’s low
Daily Chart of the QQQ:
IWM – Strong upside reversal from oversold conditions
IBIT- negative action with a downside reversal, however, if next week is strong there is the potential for a higher low.
Trends (0/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing
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Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is now a preset for Deepvue Members
Post Market Action. A few names down due to no inclusion into the S&P 500
Leaders and Key Moves
Important Note: Many of these “leaders” are now leading to the downside. Still they provide a good gauge of market environment. As new leaders reveal themselves I will curate this list.
NVDA Upside reversal at a key level, remains in a downtrend but a bit stretched, could easily see a rally back into the declining 21ema
AVGO Earnings Gap was tightened but closed well and push off the 200 day
TSLA upside reversal in the context of a sharp downtrend
META Strong close off lows in a big upside reversal bar
RDDT This former leader finally really cracks. Will be watching for signs of a new base forming. 40% off highs currently
PLTR strong action off the former base pivot level as it forms this range
BROS Extension down
OKTA Respect for the key weekly level
MSTR rejected at the level and below the 21ema again now
ROOT volatile but strong action off the 21ema
Stocks Setting Up / Showing RS
5 Day Slope % Change in Deepvue has been my new favorite way of spotting stocks showing Relative Strength.
As mentioned before 1 day of positive action is not enough, we want to look for persistent relative strength and stocks that are forming sound bases in new leading themes. There is not much of that second part yet so we are casting a wide net
In this type of market something that can look to be holding up well can completely fall apart the next day. Need to be nimble, selective, and quick if participating at all. See RDDT
TGTX Strong push from the flag
ASTS building out a bigger base. Fund ownership is increasing on this one, see the data panel
LNTH still acting strong since I first noticed it
RKT through the gap level and 200 sma
GENI more speculative name but can more and forming a big base
ARQT biotech but nice upside reversal off the consolidation pivot
ACMR still holding well near the key level
CHKP nice breakout move, see if it holds
DE strong push higher since monday
MP upside reversal at the pivot, needs to follow through
WGS upside reversal off the 21ema area, watching for follow through
INOD pulling back into the 50sma
UBER oops reversal in the range, watching for follow through
EXEL biotech still in this flag
LMND tight under the downward trend line, watching for a break higher
Watchlist in List form
Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Overall leading to the downside for now)
NVDA, AVGO, TSLA, META, RDDT, PLTR, BROS, OKTA, MSTR, ROOT
Stock on Watch
TGTX, ASTS, LNTH, RKT, GENI, ARQT, ACMR, CHKP, DE, MP, WGS, INOD, UBER, EXEL, LMND
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: Insurance Biotech Miners Health Care Equipment China Aerospace/Defense.
Market Thoughts & Focus
I like how we closed the week but we still have a lot to prove. Looking through my screens there still does not seem much developing. If today was the reversal extension then we will see quick snapbacks up and higher lows start to form.
Today could be the bottom, but if this is going to be the start of a sustained rally the best risk/reward spots are still to come. Patience.
These are the more growth minded names I’m watching more closely
OKTA UBER TEM RBLX BROS ROOT LMND
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way