Sharp Drop at the Close
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
March 4, 2025
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Market Action
QQQ – Upside reversal today that looked to be extremely positive… until the 40 minutes where we sold off hard, leading to an indecisive closing range. This is what correction type days can be like. We undercut the 200 sma but closed above, that remains a key level to watch.
We certainly remain below the other declining moving averages and rallies into them need to prove themselves. Today’s low is another key level. It would be a positive if we can hold near or above it the remainder of the week.
Take a look at the Net New Highs New Lows which is increasingly negative, and also the declining breadth. More indicators of a weak market.
What will be my playbook when we start to rally again? Read my educational Article on Trading Market Rallies from this weekend.
The short term expectation based on today’s close and recent action is consolidation or follow through to the downside.
Bulls want to see us hold here and rally higher, with some strong closes. Or a complete washout on a news catalyst and a close near highs.
Bears want to see us follow through lower.
IWM – Negative day, lower lows
IBIT- Oops reversal but very volatile. Still in daily downtrend below the short term MAs. We have the November gap and 200sma below
Trends (1/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Above Rising
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Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is now a preset for Deepvue Members
Post Market Action. OKTA GTLB set to gap up
Leaders and Key Moves
Important Note: Many of these “leaders” are now leading to the downside. Still they provide a good gauge of market environment. As new leaders reveal themselves I will curate this list.
NVDA Oops reversal today in the context of a sharp downtrend. Undercut and reclaim of the prior key swing low. Rallies into the declining 10ema will be suspect
TSLA still in a downtrend, Now breaking slightly below the 200 sma and key gap level.
META good close at a key level, in a daily downtrend
RDDT upside reversal, I think this one is worth watching closely, as it is new merchandise. I like how all things considered this has not followed through much over the past 6 days. Watching for it to hold that prior base low level.
PLTR oops reversal but some fade off highs, a lsight positive is no lower low today compared to friday.
BROS Upside reversal, watching for it to form a base
OKTA a positive today, one to add to your watchlists. At a big weekly level and could start a new stage to uptrend if the market finds its footing soon
MSTR volatile oops reversal. Suspect rally into the declining MAs.
ROOT Oops reversal as it forms a pseudo handle of the larger base. Watching for a push through the pivot.
Stocks Setting Up / Showing RS
5 Day Slope % Change in Deepvue has been my new favorite way of spotting stocks showing Relative Strength.
As mentioned before 1 day of positive action is not enough, we want to look for persistent relative strength and stocks that are forming sound bases in new leading themes. There is not much of that second part yet so we are casting a wide net
In this type of market something that can look to be holding up well can completely fall apart the next day. Need to be nimble, selective, and quick if participating at all.
TGTX Biotech remains a strongest theme
LNTH through the 200sma
ERJ still holding up well. HEI as well in the same theme
PRGO pharma theme, strong earnings gap and holding near the base pivot. Longer term gradual downtrend
LMND with root in insurance theme strong oops reversal. Watching for a break above this downward trendline
NTNX still holding up better
ADMA powerful close. This one has previously had strong moves. Improved guidance. Biotech
ACMR has still been trending
VRNA Pharma, trending pwoerfully
URBN 21ema pullback but still acting well overall
LINE short term flag after the off the bottom move
SE volatile but holding above the MAs and longer term uptrend
LRN acting well
AHR holding above the pivot. Choppy mover
SNOW looking for it to build out a longer base
RBLX watching for a build out of this base, longer term stage 2 uptrend
XPEV and china names still trending
WGS holding up well after the gap, oops reversal today. See BSX too. PEN. Health care equip
CRK poking above the 21ema. Maybe some rotation into energy. Noticed PBA too
GILD trending. EXEL as well. LLY
FNV near the consolidation pivot. tight day today. WPM
GSHD big upside reversal. Insurance theme looks the most setup for higher
UBER oops reversal, watching for follow through
TTWO big upside reversal, still holding up alright
ZLAB biotech cup and handle
Watchlist in List form
A few members requested this and I think it’s a great idea. Remember that these lists are always changing
Potential Leaders + Mega Caps
NVDA TSLA META RDDT PLTR BROS OKTA MSTR ROOT
Stock on Watch
TGTX LNTH ERJ HEI PRGO LMND NTNX ADMA ACMR VRNA URBN LINE SE LRN AHR SNOW RBLX XPEV WGS BSX PEN CRK PBA GILD EXEL LLY FNV WPM GSHD UBER TTWO ZLAB
If you have any other feedback or requests please let me know in the comments!
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: Insurance Biotech Miners China Aerospace/Defense.
These are not the types of themes I like to trade or ones that typically act well for an extended period. Insurance looks the most setup for higher in the short term
Market Thoughts & Focus
Today looked to be very constructive and potentially day 1 of a new rally attempt. However the close gave back quite a bit and weakened the look.
We’ll see if we get follow through up. Most likely though this might sound obvious is that volatility will continue and we go sideways for a bit before continuing down. Rallies into the declining shorter term MAs are suspect.
Staying flexible and open minded but less is more for my style still.
I’m starting to track more growthy names that I want to be watching closer in preparation. These are not in favor right now but noticing a few things
OKTA RDDT SNOW PLTR UBER RBRK TEM WGS RBLX BROS META ROOT LMND
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way