Good Action off the 200 SMA
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
March 5, 2025
[kt_reading_time]
Market Action
QQQ – Strong Close after testing the 200sma in the morning. A positive that we are respecting that level. Today’s low and the 200sma are key levels.
What will be my playbook when we start to rally again? Read my educational Article on Trading Market Rallies from this weekend.
The short term expectation based on today’s close and recent action is consolidation or follow through to the upside. Volatility up or down to be expected.
Bulls want to see us follow through up
Bears want to see reverse lower undercutting the 200sma
Daily Chart of the QQQ:
5 Minute Chart of the TQQQ: There was an opportunity for a trade as QQQ pushed off the 200sma around 12pm and we reclaimed the intraday 21ema. Risk to the low of the day ~1.5%. We trended nicely the rest of the day approaching yesterday’s high.
IWM – Inside day with a good close. Constructive but still in a downtrend below the MAs
IBIT- follow through up and showing short term RS. Appraching possible resistance at the declining 21ema. Ideally forms a higher low there and then pops through.
Trends (1/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Above Rising
Deepvue Special Offer – 2 Months for only $39
Try out the best platform for CANSLIM Swing and Position Traders – Top Trader Screens, Unique Indicators – Streamlined Routines
Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is now a preset for Deepvue Members
Post Market Action. MRVL HIMS RGTI down
Leaders and Key Moves
Important Note: Many of these “leaders” are now leading to the downside. Still they provide a good gauge of market environment. As new leaders reveal themselves I will curate this list.
NVDA Consolidation inside day. Could begin counter trend rally up to the MAs.
TSLA downtrend, but building a range at the gap low and 200 sma area
META Some follow through up, back above the 50sma
RDDT holding well, getting closer to a potential wedge pop through the 21ema
PLTR follow through up, building a range here
BROS negative inside day, expectation is a leak lower to fill the gap. If we get a strong upside reversal in this area this could start to shape up well
OKTA strong follow through! This is a name to watch carefully
MSTR above the 21ema, counter trend rally into potential resistance
ROOT follow through up and peaking into new highs. Ideally tightens and pulls back slightly then breaks out in earnest.
Stocks Setting Up / Showing RS
5 Day Slope % Change in Deepvue has been my new favorite way of spotting stocks showing Relative Strength.
As mentioned before 1 day of positive action is not enough, we want to look for persistent relative strength and stocks that are forming sound bases in new leading themes. There is not much of that second part yet so we are casting a wide net
In this type of market something that can look to be holding up well can completely fall apart the next day. Need to be nimble, selective, and quick if participating at all.
MP strong gap and close. Miners acted strong today AEM PAAS…
FUTU China names continue to act well. QFIN BEKE BABA
RKT approaching potential resistance
SE strong gap and go
CFLT strong bar, not a great looking chart but back above the 21ema. Watching for it to tighten around the pivot
WGS through the pivot
ERJ continues to outperform
ARQT Biotech, choppy performance enhancer
ZLAB biotech, through the cup and handle pivot
TGTX Biotech flagging for a swing trade
PRGO flagging above the pivot
LMND setting up below the DTL with an inside day
NTNX recently not great closes but holding above the pivot and MAs
LINE push through the short flag
URBN setting up a range against the 21ema
SNOW setting up below the 21ema
RBLX tight day below the 21ema, setting up
EXEL flagging, biotech
TTWO follow through up
LLY off the 10ema. GILD also still trending
UBER watching for follow through up
GSHD tight inside day, looks primed
NFLX near the 21ema
Watchlist in List form
A few members requested this and I think it’s a great idea. Remember that these lists are always changing
Potential Leaders + Mega Caps
NVDA, TSLA, META, RDDT, PLTR, BROS, OKTA, MSTR, ROOT
Stock on Watch
MP, AEM, PAAS, FUTU, QFIN, BEKE, BABA, RKT, SE, CFLT, WGS, ERJ, ARQT, ZLAB, TGTX, PRGO, LMND, NTNX, LINE, URBN, SNOW, RBLX, EXEL, TTWO, LLY, GILD, UBER, GSHD, NFLX
If you have any other feedback or requests please let me know in the comments!
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: Insurance Biotech Miners China Aerospace/Defense.
Software starting to perk up potentially, still a lot to prove
Market Thoughts & Focus
After yesterday’s lcose I really like how we handle the open and 200sma pullback. Strong close and short term momentum is higher. However this would be more of an oversold move up. Ideally we form a higher low and pop through the MAs. Noticing a few more names starting to setup up below/near their 21emas
These are the more Growth minded names I’m watching closely
OKTA RDDT SNOW PLTR UBER RBRK TEM WGS RBLX BROS META ROOT LMND HOOD NET
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way