Anatomy Of A Trade: COIN +110% Trendline Breakout

Oliver Kell
Oliver Kell

Oliver Kell is a champion trader who achieved an impressive 941% return by winning the 2020 U.S. Investing Championship. With years of active trading experience, Oliver has developed strategies that thrive in both uptrends and downtrends.

September 11, 2024
7 min read
373 views

COIN made Oliver Kell’s focus after it moved 145% off its low and formed a Cup And Handle when it found support near the 200-day simple moving average.

When a stock with huge liquidity shows growing fundamentals, Oliver waits for the technical pattern to emerge. The rounded bottom never formed a textbook Reversal Extension but formed a tight tradeable range after the Wedge Pop.

This trade review shares Oliver’s thought process and trade execution throughout COIN’s 110% move.

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 1
Chart via Deepvue

Technicals And Fundamentals

COIN had been on Oliver Kell’s radar since its IPO and throughout its Institutional Due Diligence Phase when it eventually formed a low and began its Stage 2 Advance.

The fundamentals have everything Oliver looks for including a large market cap, high price, high average daily volume, and part of the strongest market theme.

Date: October 31, 2023

After a 140% move from the June lows, COIN began to show some signs of accumulation off a flattening bottom while the 200-day simple moving average began to support the price.

Oliver entered through a bull flag trendline and above all the converge moving averages.

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 2
Chart via Deepvue

Context Is Everything

Date: November 8, 2023

The general market had been showing weakness for a while but recently begun to show signs of strength. Meanwhile, COIN had been following the action of Bitcoin.

Oliver noted COIN becomes difficult to trade with the relationship to Bitcoin and raises stops with every bullish action.

The EMA Crossback formed the handle and another tradeable range formed. If Bitcoin does well and the market finds strength, COIN should also perform well.

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 3
Chart via Deepvue

Raise Stops When You Add

Date: November 14, 2023

After gapping through the handle, Oliver waited for a pullback and retest of the support area and let the moving averages catch up to the price movement.

Entering towards the beginning of The Cycle Of Price Action allows you to hold the position longer as the cycle unfolds.

Adding to your position up the right side of a base provides a new opportunity to raise your stops. Your average cost will be a little higher, but raising your stops keeps potential losses minimal while financing your new risk.

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 4
Chart via Deepvue

Another Tradeable Range

Date: November 20, 2023

Conviction builds over time.

At this moment, the overall market has continued to make new highs while Bitcoin also strengthened.

Oliver rounded out to a full position here and planned for the moving averages to guide the price higher.

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 5
Chart via Deepvue

A Look At The Weekly

Date: November 25, 2023

During Oliver’s Weekend review, he noted that the weekly price movement has rested near previous highs.

When making a trading plan, think of where the price has come from compared to where it is now.

We can expect some consolidation, but if the price continues it will quickly become extended.

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 6
Chart via Deepvue

Reduce Into First Extension

Date: November 29, 2023

A Look at the weekly shows “air” between the price and the 10-week exponential moving average. The candle formed is a potential reversal candlestick

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 7
Chart via Deepvue

When looking at the daily we see a doji which signals indecision and is another potential reversal pattern.

As we are extended on the weekly and the daily, some profits should be taken to book some gains while continuing to hold a piece. This also provides a good sport to raise stops to maximize profits.

If the price pulls in there may be an additional buy area.

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 8
Chart via Deepvue

Raise Stops Up To Higher Support Areas

Date: December 1, 2023

A quick pullback was supported by the five-day exponential moving average then quickly reconfirmed higher.

The Ignite Bar signals an area to raise your stops. If this support area fails then the price will most likely roll over and fall.

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 9
Chart via Deepvue

Sell Into Strength

Date: December 6, 2023

Selling into strength guarantees profits and allows the trade to play out as it rides the moving averages.

Swing trading capitalizes on fast price movements when the price is trending – Take profits when the trend changes.

Oliver viewed this as an Exhaustion Extension and reduced more.

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 10
Chart via Deepvue

Leading stocks with strong moves like this should continuously be monitored. If the stock sets up again, you have confidence that the price has had previous strong trends.

A New Bull Flag Develops

Date: Decmeber 8, 2023

What was first considered a blowoff extension now appears to be morphing into a new bull flag.

Oliver added back some shares he just sold to rebuild a larger position.

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 11
Chart via Deepvue

Let The Stock Trend

Date: December 13, 2023

COIN had been difficult to hold while it was hovering near the new entry’s low. Compared to bitcoin, however, COIN was showing excellent Relative Strength while the market indices continued to hold up.

Oliver elected to hold the position and let the price trend, raising his stops under strong price movements.

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 12
Chart via Deepvue

Raising Stops

Date: December 18, 2023

Oliver continued to monitor COIN while letting the trade play out.

Stops were raised when the price pulled into support after a strong price movement.

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 13
Chart via Deepvue

Potential Second Extension

Date: December 20, 2023

After a move of over 100%, Oliver decided to exit the trade on a second extension.

The overall market had a bearish day after an extensive run and we are close to year-end. After analyzing the strength of the recent market trend, it was a safe bet to book open profits.

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 14
Chart via Deepvue

Re-Enter When Wrong

Date: December 21, 2023

If this was a true Exhaustion Extension, the price should have come in. Instead, we gapped up.

Oliver re-entered the position with the initial plan in mind – Let the stock trend and ride the 10-day higher.

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 15
Chart via Deepvue

Raise Stops With Price Confirmation

Date: December 27, 2023

Another Ignite Bar reconfirms higher.

With new buys late in the cycle trail stops to keep them tight as the price trends higher.

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 16
Chart via Deepvue

Stagger Stops To Maximize Profits

Date: January 1, 2023

Getting stopped out of an entire position to then see it reverse higher is difficult to endure. After exiting, and then re-entering the next day already, Oliver staggered his stops into two different areas to allow for a longer trend.

The first stop hit when the price closed below the recent gap, under the 5-day EMA, and on increased volume.

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 17
Chart via Deepvue

Stopped Out

Date: January 2, 2023

Oliver’s second stop at the 10-day EMA has now been triggered on the continued weakness.

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 18

Educational Bonus – Parabolic Curve

Near the end of COIN’s run, Oliver noted three accelerating trendlines. This move became parabolic as the price trend increased after each pullback.

Note the three different trend line angles as they supported the price higher. When the price came through the steepest trendline, it quickly cut through the next.

COIN 110 Trendline Breakout 19
Chart via Deepvue

Moves like this need time to consolidate before building out a new base.

Wrapping It Up

COIN was a known IPO that eventually bottomed before advancing off the lows.

Oliver entered COIN on strength through a trendline after the price found support at the moving averages and formed a rounded bottom.

As the price structure changed and formed additional tradeable ranges, Oliver added to his position.

Trimming into strength allowed Oliver to hold the position longer. Buying pullbacks into support allowed Oliver to maximize position sizes by adding to his winning position.

The trade was ultimately stopped when it cut through the 10-day exponential moving average.

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