Negative Expectation Breaker and New Lows
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
March 6, 2025
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Market Action
QQQ – Gap down and close near lows, undercutting the key low and 200 sma. The expectation based on yesterday’s bar was follow through higher. It is significant that instead of doing so, we gapped lower. This suggests that more time is required and w are back to waiting for another start of a potential rally.
What will be my playbook when we start to rally again? Read my educational Article on Trading Market Rallies from this weekend.
The short term expectation based on today’s close and recent action is consolidation or lower. Volatility up or down to be expected.
Bulls want to see us hold near the 200 sma on a weekly closing basis. A strong friday would either look like a strong upside reversal or a gap up and hold
Bears want to see follow through lower, accelerating to the downside
Daily Chart of the QQQ:
IWM – some follow through lower, overall downtrend below all the MAs.
IBIT- close off highs but still acting alright in comparison. below declining MAs
Trends (0/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below declining
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Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is now a preset for Deepvue Members
Post Market Action. MRVL HIMS RGTI down
Leaders and Key Moves
Important Note: Many of these “leaders” are now leading to the downside. Still they provide a good gauge of market environment. As new leaders reveal themselves I will curate this list.
NVDA Resolved down from the inside day. Gapping up slightly in after hours on AVGO report. Downtrend
AVGO at the 200 day but set to gap up to around the 21ema. Daily downcycle for now. Will be a good gauge of the market tomorrow
TSLA downtrend. Leaking below the key level
META Reversal Down
RDDT reversal back down, and closing below the key level
PLTR reversal down and back to the base pivot
BROS broke lower
OKTA reversal down, watching for a range to form against the key weekly level
MSTR Fade off the range lows but holding near the 21ema
ROOT reversal down
Stocks Setting Up / Showing RS
5 Day Slope % Change in Deepvue has been my new favorite way of spotting stocks showing Relative Strength.
As mentioned before 1 day of positive action is not enough, we want to look for persistent relative strength and stocks that are forming sound bases in new leading themes. There is not much of that second part yet so we are casting a wide net
As we saw today in this type of market something that can look to be holding up well can completely fall apart the next day. Need to be nimble, selective, and quick if participating at all. See NTNX
TGTX fade and back in this flag/range
RKT inside day below the 200sma
ERIE holding up well
AMGN building above the 200sma
GILD continues to trend
MCK continues to act well above the base pivot
EXEL shakeout type bar, needs to follow through
ZLAB holding that gap
ACMR holding above the pivot and in an uptrend despite NVDA and semi weakness
VEEV not a pretty chart but gapping up
LLY watching for a pop higher
AEM inside day, miners look constructive
AXSM tight, could break either way
WGS in this range
SE inside day
UBER poor DCR but still in this range
Watchlist in List form
Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Overall leading to the downside for now)
NVDA, AVGO, TSLA, META, RDDT, PLTR, BROS, OKTA, MSTR, ROOT
Stock on Watch
TGTX, RKT, ERIE, AMGN, GILD, MCK, EXEL, ZLAB, ACMR, VEEV, LLY, AEM, AXSM, WGS, SE, UBER
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: Insurance Biotech Miners China Aerospace/Defense.
Market Thoughts & Focus
Negative expectation breaker today. I’m watching for one more flush down that really get’s people worried, and then a sign of strength after that. This has been sharp but still seeing posts about how we are only ~8% off highs… Open-minded and how we close the week tomorrow will be key.
These are the more growth minded names I’m watching closely
OKTA RDDT SNOW PLTR UBER RBRK TEM RBLX BROS META ROOT LMND HOOD NET
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way