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The TML Talk | September 26th, 2025

Ross
Ross

Ross is a co-founder of TraderLion and Deepvue. He was mentored by William O’Neil, and co-authored The Model Book of Greatest Stock Market Winners at WON + Co.

September 26, 2025

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Weekly Market Summary – September 26 2025

Weekly Market Summary

Post-Pullback Analysis & Leadership Assessment

Market Overview

Major indexes demonstrated resilient behavior throughout a volatile week, with the NASDAQ composite emerging as the strongest performer. The QQQ ETF notably avoided testing its 21-day moving average during the pullback, maintaining clear accumulation characteristics. While the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Dow Jones all pulled back to their 21-23 day moving average confluence, each index demonstrated healthy support and follow-through recovery patterns. The market structure remains intact with no serious distribution days reported and leadership characteristics continuing to show strength.

Volatility patterns reflected normal market behavior rather than structural deterioration, with many leading stocks actually strengthening during the broader pullback. The sentiment indicators remained constructive with NAZI readings only moderately elevated and market exposure levels sitting at reasonable 88% levels, well below extremes that would signal market tops. This environment suggests rotation continues to favor high-quality liquid names with organized personalities that respect key technical support levels.

Leadership dynamics show clear differentiation between extended names requiring consolidation time and emerging themes gaining institutional traction. The quantum computing and battery technology sectors experienced explosive moves while established leaders like Tesla worked through multi-month bases. Setup quality trends indicate increasing numbers of stocks approaching green line breakout territories, with relative strength patterns favoring names that maintain support above 21-23 day moving averages during market weakness.

Key Lessons & Quotes

“Watch your stocks, don’t get ahead of your rules, try and trade them on an individual basis.”
“It will either wear you out or scare you out.”
“Don’t worry about missing moves from here to there. William O’Neil would tell you the same thing passionately – focus on the setup quality.”
“The only thing that matters is that you’re patient enough to buy it with a tight logical sell stop.”

Actionable Takeaways

  • Focus on individual stock behavior rather than broad market timing, emphasizing tight logical sell stops based on moving average support levels
  • Monitor relative strength lines above 21-day moving averages as key confirmation signals for breakout candidates across sectors
  • Utilize end-of-day stop strategies rather than intraday stops to avoid getting shaken out of quality positions during normal volatility
  • Emphasize volume confirmation on breakouts through declining tops lines and prior resistance levels before committing significant capital
  • Consider performance enhancers in explosive sectors while maintaining core positions in established leaders with solid fundamental backing
  • Watch for green line breakout opportunities in monthly chart patterns, particularly in stocks showing stage two characteristics off major bottoms
  • Implement position sizing strategies that account for potential pullbacks to 50-65 day moving averages in volatile performance enhancers

Stock Mentions and Commentary

Communication Services

Ticker Setup Description & Key Themes
BIDU Chinese equivalent personality showing directional strength with organized predictable support; Bull flag pattern approaching stage two breakout
PSKY Paramount Skydance merger beneficiary working with Warner Brothers Discovery theme; Performance enhancer quality setup
WBD Movie and TV consolidation play showing flag pattern with tight sideways action above 10-day moving average
RBLX Multi-month sideways consolidation approaching green line breakout; Seven-week cup and handle formation developing
SPHR Entertainment venue leader showing bull flag pattern with massive relative strength; Performance enhancer with position potential
WBTN Webtoons IPO showing powerful monthly breakout with highest volume ever; Institutional backing with steady revenue stream
CVNA Carvana working on major monthly green line breakout with tight action near highs; Significant earnings turnaround story
DASH Seven-week cup and handle pattern with declining tops line resistance; Green line breakout candidate
JMIA Jumia Technologies pure performance enhancer showing flag on flag pattern; Declining channel breakout above 10-day

Technology Hardware & Semiconductors

Ticker Setup Description & Key Themes
QS QuantumScape battery technology showing cup and handle formation; EV infrastructure theme with quantum misnomer benefit
TSLA Breaking out from multi-month base with monthly pattern just waking up; Robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robot catalysts
NVDA AI chip leader working through consolidation above 50-day moving average; OpenAI direct chip deal catalyst
AMD Semiconductor laggard showing tight three-week consolidation; Historically catches up powerfully when group rotates
AVGO Semiconductor equipment leader holding above key moving averages; OpenAI chip manufacturing partnership driving strength
AMSC American Superconductor breaking out to new all-time highs; High-quality CanSlim leader across all metrics
SITM SiTime semiconductor showing monthly breakout potential; High-quality leader chugging along with AMSC
MU Micron Technology holding above prior highs during market pullback; Green line breakout consolidation pattern

Software & Technology Services

Ticker Setup Description & Key Themes
PLTR Palantir showing seven-week cup and handle above prior highs; Government contracts and AI integration driving sustained growth
CLS Celestica holding key moving averages with monthly stair-step pattern; Four months sideways suggesting next explosive move
DAVE Software leader tightening on monthly timeframe after stair-step bull flag pattern; Watching for continuation higher
PONY Autonomous driving AI software IPO with Waymo and Tesla FSD capabilities; Chinese ADR with whippy personality
SNOW Snowflake holding declining tops line resistance with volume tapering; Software leader shaping up for potential breakout

Financial Services

Ticker Setup Description & Key Themes
FUTU Fintech platform holding rising bottoms line support; International expansion and digital trading growth themes
HOOD Robinhood showing rising bottoms channel support with prior high confluence; Mobile trading platform strength
WOLF AI data infrastructure leader with highest volume ever; Satellite and space infrastructure demand driving growth
GLXY Galaxy Digital combining institutional crypto trading with AI data centers; Bitcoin mining and financial platform hybrid

Healthcare & Biotechnology

Ticker Setup Description & Key Themes
INDV Profitable biotech IPU approaching green line breakout with institutional volume; Hundreds of millions quarterly revenue
IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals showing well-formed bull flag pattern; Profitable biotech with incredible fundamentals
MLIS Merus high-tight flag formation above IPO gap; Liquid biotech requiring immediate follow-through confirmation
RYTM Rhythm Pharmaceuticals testing 50-day support with declining tops line breakout; Revenue stream without earnings
STOK Small biotech showing stair-step bull flag pattern; Four-fold move from lows pushing through monthly resistance
COGT Cogent Biosciences breaking out after shakeout pattern; Biotech leader managing to wear out and scare out early buyers

Energy & Industrial

Ticker Setup Description & Key Themes
AMPX Battery technology leader partnering with QuantumScape theme; EV infrastructure pure play
CAR Avis Budget tight along expanding moving averages; Watching for reclaim above 50-day with volume confirmation
SYM Symbotic robotics holding 50-day confluence support; Analyst downgrade creating entry opportunity for contrarian positioning
BKSY BlackSky satellite imaging showing launch pad pattern with space technology theme; Aerospace component strength

Quantum Computing & Emerging Technologies

Ticker Setup Description & Key Themes
QBTS D-Wave Quantum flag pattern among tighter quantum names; Pure performance enhancer requiring immediate confirmation
IONQ IonQ quantum computing leader with higher quality characteristics than QUBT; Emerging technology theme rotation
RGTI Rigetti Computing showing tighter personality among quantum group; Technology infrastructure pure play
ARQQ Arqit Quantum most laggard of quantum names but significant monthly upside potential; Requires tightening before entry

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