The TML Talk, March 24th, 2026 – Extreme Bifurcation Continues – Iran Peace?

Market Overview

All four major indexes remain in downtrends, trading below all of their key moving averages. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 are both on day two of their latest rally attempts. Days four through seven are considered ideal for a follow-through day; however, many successful follow-through days have occurred weeks later.

Despite the continued weakness across the broader market, groups of leading growth stocks are forming constructive bases and breaking out. Semiconductor, Fiber Optics, and Oil and Gas-related names are building bases and breaking out as if the market were in a healthy uptrend, making new all-time highs.

Currently, the market is up in the after-hours session. The big catalyst was news of a U.S.-Iran peace plan report, which hit the wires after the close this evening. As we’ve seen many times in the past, geopolitical swings like these can reverse quickly, so we’ll have to see how this ultimately plays out.

While the tug of war continues, I would suggest that you do you. Whether that be operating in the groups of leaders that are working, or sitting out and waiting for the general market to confirm the current strength in the individual leaders. There is no right or wrong way, only what’s right for you. Continue updating your watch lists, make sure your alerts are set, and be ready for anything.

Indexes

QQQ

The Nasdaq remains in a downtrend below its 200-day SMA, and tomorrow is day three of its current rally attempt, with the potential for follow-through day on Thursday.

SPY

Just like the NASDAQ, the S&P 500 remains in a downtrend below its 200-day SMA, and tomorrow is day three of its current rally attempt, with the potential for follow-through day on Thursday.

IWM

The Russell 2000 continues to exhibit the most relative strength of the four major indexes. The small-cap index managed to find support at the confluence of its 200-day SMA and prior pivot point. Also, it was the only major index to finish higher today and begin to push through near-term resistance.

DIA

The Dow has been following a similar pattern to the S&P 500 ever since it rolled over and broke key support.

Focus List

LRCX

My expectation is that LRCX will ultimately follow the other leading Semiconductor Stocks to New All-Time Highs. Ideally, I'd like to try and enter this name on constructive weakness at a key support level.

ASML

My expectation for ASML is that it will ultimately follow its relative strength line and the rest of the group up and out of its current consolidation and ultimately to new all-time highs. I'm currently watching to enter on strength above the gap. The confluence of ASML's prior gap, 21-day SMA, and 50-day SMA is the spot I'm watching for potential entry.

AEIS

A E I S broke out of a sound consolidation to new all-time highs on heavy volume today. I will be watching this one for a potential entry on constructive weakness near key support.

NVMI

NVMI continues to build a healthy, constructive base just slightly below its prior high and looks like it's setting up to break out along with many other of the leaders in its group.

GLW

Watching GLW for a constructive pullback to key support near its prior pivot and 21-day SMA for a potential entry area.

AAOI

AAOI blasted higher on big volume after finding support at its 23 EMA over the last several days, watching for a constructive pullback to key support near $100 for potential entry area.

LITE

LITE broke out of a volatile four-week base today, and given that it has a 20-day ADR over 10%, I am watching for constructive weakness, with the $715 level in mind for a potential entry area.

VIAV

VIAV broke out of a volatile four-week consolidation on heavier volume today. Watching it for constructive weakness near key support at its 10-day SMA/21-day SMA for a potential entry area.

SNDK

The gap area below $700 on SNDK is a concern, so I am watching for strength and would prefer to enter above its 10-day moving average and prior all-time high, as it attempts a re-breakout.

WDC

Watching WDC for a constructive pullback to key support at the confluence of its 21-day SMA and prior pivot point for a potential entry area.

STX

Watching STX for constructive weakness near key support at the confluence of its 21-day SMA and prior pivot point for a potential entry area.