The TML Talk | March 19th, 2025

Market Overview

• Indexes and General Market Trend:
  • The NASDAQ 100 rallied today, Day 4 off last week’s swing low—up 1.41%, shy of the 1.75%+ follow-through threshold on increased volume; leadership breadth expands, hinting at a potential uptrend if Days 5-7 deliver, though momentum needs confirmation.
  • The S&P 500 climbed 1.08% today, also Day 4 post-low—below its 200-day SMA but showing resilience; volume rose, yet lacks the decisive 1.75%+ surge, signaling a market testing recovery with traditional growth joining the fray.
  • Small caps via $IWM surged powerfully today, outpacing broader indexes—mirroring a Dow uptick; this rare strength suggests a broadening rally, though sustained leadership and volume are key to flipping the risk-off tide.
• Current Market Status:
  • The market’s finding its footing after weeks of pressure—indexes are climbing, with biotech and tech stepping up. China’s still in play, $BABA leading calmly, though its dominance is softening.
  • China’s presence lingers—$BABA holds firm with $XPEV carrying the EV torch, but names like $LI are slipping. It’s steady, not fully stealing the show as traditional growth gains ground.
  • Defensive sectors like gold and financials ($DB, $HSBC) remain in the mix—banks are joining the rally, yet biotech’s surge is the headline. It’s a balanced shift, not a full pivot.
  • Volatility’s easing as breadth picks up—today’s volume backs the move. Without a 1.75%+ pop by Day 7, we’re stuck sideways, but leadership’s quiet strength suggests upside potential.

Key Lessons & Quotes

• “Amazingly enough it’s amazing how even the breadth of the watch list has whipsawed right because I use that as a key indicator and I don’t know that I don’t remember off the top of my head the last time the market sold off below the 200 Day meaning the S&P and the NASDAQ and there being such a deep sharp dip in the indexes where my watch list ran out of names essentially.”
• “Over the next three days we’d be looking for a follow through day and again the ideal time is on days four through seven of the rally off the bottom or off that swing low however follow through days valid follow-through days I should say Can Happen two and three weeks after they can happen on volume that’s bigger yet less than average and still be as valid.”
• “Making running screens making lists setting alerts and all of that yes it forces me to have a ready list for when the market follows through but honestly if I hadn’t watched the market for three weeks and you sat me down in front of the market it wouldn’t take me very long to hone in on where I should be however the process of doing that will help you above and Beyond understand how healthy the leadership is.”
• “Purposely picked the stocks with personality that are super that I can be wrong on the first six times and still not be hesitant to buy it back a seventh because I’ve been too chopped up or broke you know I’m just follow it’s either it’s a bummer sometimes it happens it doesn’t work the seventh time and all I do is lose money or get stopped out seven times in a row not necessarily at a loss right sometimes small.”

Actionable Takeaways

• Assess Leadership’s Reach: Watch biotech and tech for sustained gains—broadening hints at strength; China’s steady but not the driver it was.
• Await the Follow-Through Cue: Hold off until a 1.75%+ day with volume lands by Day 7—Days 5-7 are crucial for this rally.
• Spot Breakout Potential: Focus on stocks near 50/65-day lines resolving up—tight setups with volume signal low-risk entries.
• Test China’s Staying Power: Check $BABA and $XPEV on pullbacks—keep stops tight, as their edge softens amid broader growth.
• Lean on Liquid Leaders: Prioritize stocks with RSNHBP and stable averages—big-cap tech and biotech offer some upside potential.

Stock Mentions and Commentary

Communication Services – Internet Content & Information:

• $BILI: Earnings in 6 days—tight above 23-day, low volume; volatility contraction hints at a move, China fades but relevant.
• $BZ: China holdout—steady strength persists; lacks standout traits, watch as tech overshadows China’s pullback.
• $NFLX: Big-cap tech—reclaims 50-day on volume; RSNHBP leads price, liquid leader, steady if rally confirms.
• $NTES: Gaming name—holds averages, less dominant; liquid, lacks punch, watch for tighter setup as China wanes.
• $SE: Highs post-earnings—still strong; extended, needs dip, fading focus as tech rises.
• $SPOT: Liquid leader—above 21-day, RSNHBP; triple-digit growth, buyable on strength if uptrend locks in.
• $TME: China stream—tight near highs; monthly IPO U-turn, steady earnings, watch for breakout volume.
• $TTWO: Gaming star—outside day above averages; RSNHBP, easy 23-day stop, top pick with strong estimates.

Consumer Discretionary – Restaurants, Education, & Leisure:

• $BABA: China mainstay—tight above 10-day, RSNHBP; steady leader, big-move potential, buy strength with tight stops.
• $BROS: Restaurant play—reclaims 50-day on volume; weekly/monthly shaping, subtle group strength, monitor lift.
• $DASH: Delivery name—near 21-day, big volume; monthly IPO U-turn, robust estimates, upside if rally kicks.
• $DUOL: Education off 200-day—support holds; constructive, revenue grows, needs non-earnings spark.
• $JD: China retail—tight above resistance, RSNHBP; monthly accumulation, strong if China stays in play.
• $LI: China EV—fading, holds averages; whippy, losing ground to $XPEV, watch support levels.
• $LTH: Gym stock—tightens near 50/65-day; resolving higher, solid, watch breakout confirmation.
• $SRAD: Sports data—whippy highs, RSNHBP; casino tie, monthly breakout looms, needs tightening.
• $TAL: Education pullback—above lows, RSNHBP; group lags, needs market boost to resolve up.
• $XPEV: China EV leader—RSNHBP, monthly breakout looms; whippy but key, watch volume for staying power.
• $ZK: China EV—whippy, RSNHBP; less liquid, volatile, needs character shift to matter.
• $VIPS: China secondary—whippy, RSNHBP; weaker earnings than $JD, monitor for relevance.

Consumer Staples:

• $MO: Cigarette safety—rides 10-day; steady, unexciting, monitor if risk-off fades.
• $PM: Defensive holdout—still steady; less strong than $MO, watch for selling as growth rises.

Financials – Capital Markets & Insurance:

• $DB: Bank power—17 to 25 rally; liquid ADR, group strength, enhancer with tight stops if rally holds.
• $FUTU: China financial—sideways above averages; RSNHBP, constructive, needs breakout punch.
• $HOOD: Broker comeback—rallies off base; bitcoin-tied, needs group lift, watch for strength.
• $HSBC: Foreign bank—47 to 62 surge; steady power, liquid, enhancer if banking sustains.
• $PGR: Insurance steady—near 10-day; name-brand stability, solid if growth falters, volume key.
• $QFIN: China broker—Monday breakout; whippy, RSNHBP, watch for tighter follow-through.
• $ROOT: Insurance growth—tightens near averages; outperforms $PGR, mover potential, needs volume.
• $TIGR: China brokerage—sideways strength; RSNHBP, less whippy, monitor financial trends.

Health Care – Biotechnology & Pharmaceuticals:

• $ABBV: Biotech titan—waffles near 10-day highs; steady breakout, needs rest, reliable but lacks spark.
• $ADMA: Biotech star—strong above 50-day; hammer support, RSNHBP, earnings glow, top pick with breakout potential.
• $AKRO: Whippy biotech—near 50/65-day; RSNHBP, volatile, needs tighter action, group-relevant.
• $ALKS: Steady biotech—above 23-day, RSNHBP; profitable, whippy but strong, watch for power.
• $ARQT: High RS biotech—whippy, RSNHBP; revenue grows, monthly breakout looms, needs character shift.
• $ASND: Biotech power—volatile, RSNHBP; revenue jumps, whippy, watch monthly for breakout clues.
• $AVXL: Biotech setup—near 50-day; lacks volume punch, resolving higher, wait for power confirmation.
• $CVS: Drugstore holdout—rallies off lows; steady but slow, monitor if biotech overshadows.
• $DOCS: Near 50/65-day—resolving up; lacks volume, earnings-driven, watch non-earnings breakout.
• $JAZZ: Biotech gem—new highs, RSNHBP; profitable, big estimate jump, top pick if tightens.
• $KRYS: Biotech volatile—whippy, no asterisk; strong group, needs tightening for confidence.
• $ONCY: Biotech steady—buyable strength today; RSNHBP, group-relevant, watch follow-through.
• $TGTX: Biotech leader—above averages, RSNHBP; profitable, estimates soar, top with follow-through.

Industrials – Data Processing & Services:

• $ERJ: Extended above the 10-day—resolving higher; liquid, group lags, steady with stop at today’s low if rally holds.
• $HSAI: China EV supplier—50% breakout; huge volume, extended, watch for flag as group fades.
• $KC: China industrial—tight, respects averages; liquid ADR, strong, gappiness tempers appeal.

Information Technology – Software & Quantum

• $MSTR: Software/Bitcoin—monthly shaping up; volatile enhancer, tight stops key, buy with crypto surge.
• $OKTA: Tech champ—post-earnings power; RSNHBP, liquid, top leader, buyable on dip if rally holds.
• $PLTR: Near 50/65-day—resolving up; RSNHBP, liquid, big potential, buy strength with 50-day stop.
• $QBTS: Quantum leader—HVE breakout; whippy, RSNHBP, high-risk enhancer, needs tightening.

Materials – Metals & Mining:

• $HMY: Gold standout—RSNHBP, strong; aligns with gold’s power, watch if growth takes over.

ETFs:

• $GLD: Gold ETF—top chart, RSNHBP; defensive leader, monitor as risk-on builds.

Ross’ Watchlist

• Communication Services: BILI* BZ NFLX* SPOT* TME TTWO
• Consumer Discretionary: BABA* BROS DASH* DUOL HSAI JD LTH* SRAD VIPS XPEV* ZK 
• Consumer Staples: MO PM
• Financials: FUTU ROOT QFIN TIGR
• Health Care: ABBV* ADMA* ALKS AKRO ARQT ASND AVXL* AXSM* CVS DOCS GH* HALO HLN KRYS* ONC* SWTX RGC TGTX TVTX* VRNA WGS ZLAB
• Industrials: KC KTOS RTX 
• Information Technology: AAOI ACMR DOCU GDDY* OKTA PLTR QBTS* RBRK* TEAM
• Materials: HMY
• Real Estate: AHR*
• Utilities: ARIS
• ETFs: GLD KWEB