The TML Talk | June 27th, 2025

Market Overview

• Indexes pushed into new all-time highs this week, finally confirming what leadership had been hinting at for weeks. The S&P and Nasdaq cleared their prior highs with authority, while the Dow joined in by turning all moving averages higher. The laggard IWM showed mild resistance at the 200-day, but even that’s well off its lows—signaling more participation than not.
• Notably, the move to highs came late in the week on strong volume, cleaning up earlier concerns of wedging or low-conviction breakouts. This resets the risk profile, especially for those wary of the 2020-style V-shaped fakeout. Leadership has been persistent and broad, with multiple groups—biotech, semis, software, fintech, and quantum—trading at or near their highs.
• Sentiment and positioning continue to lean cautious. Despite the strength, NAAIM exposure only reached 80% mid-week (vs. 90–92% typical at short-term tops). Meanwhile, the market climbed a wall of worry, brushing off headline-driven shakeouts and reasserting trend resilience.
• Technically, many leaders are riding their 10-day moving averages, and the deeper ones are respecting the 21/23-day cluster. This is classic trending behavior—and offers calculated areas to rotate, pyramid, or take partials.

Actionable Takeaways

• Trim What’s Extended—Rotate Into New Setups: The indexes are extended from their 10/21-day lines. If your stocks are 2–3x as stretched, consider trimming strength and redeploying into newer bases still near support.
• Use Relative Strength and Industry Confirmation: Favor names whose RS lines are in uptrends and are part of leading groups. Weak names in hot sectors or isolated outperformers tend to fizzle without group support.
• Avoid Buying Breakouts Straight Off the 23-Day: Breakouts that launch vertically from the 21/23-day without pause often fail on the first attempt. Instead, look for tightening action and a controlled turn before entering.
• Respect Personality and Liquidity: Stocks like $NFLX and $HOOD reward patience by respecting moving averages and offering clear spots to add or hold. Names like $NEON or $NBIS may be fast movers, but demand tighter sizing and faster reflexes – or no trade at all depending on R/R.
• Watch for the U-Turn Late in the Day: This market continues to reward traders who watch for intraday reversals. Late-session U-turns off key levels (like $AMZN on Friday) often offer prime entries when volume expands.

Stock Mentions and Commentary

Communication Services – Interactive Media & Services:

• $META – Broke out of a well-defined handle earlier this week and is now flagging above the 10-/21-day zone. RS line remains in an uptrend and volume pullbacks continue to shrink—leadership intact.
• $NBIS – New IPO still digesting its initial breakout. Price is hugging the 10-day with volume easing each day; signs point to controlled consolidation and accumulation.
• $NFLX – Early cycle leader now extended, but showing textbook trend action. Every dip to the 10-day has been met with buying, and volume remains constructive.
• $RDDT – Coiling tightly just below range highs after shaking out early longs. Intraday volume has dried up—a breakout on heavy trade would confirm renewed demand.
• $TME – Continuing to drift sideways above all major moving averages. Low volatility and quiet volume suggest patient sponsorship and no reason to sell.

Consumer Discretionary – Restaurants & Retail:

• $AMZN – Reversed higher from a key inflection zone Friday, reclaiming prior pivot highs on expanding trade. RS line is pressing to new highs—a breakout continuation could ignite a larger move.
• $SHAK – Pullback from recent highs was swift but controlled. Still holding above breakout levels and digesting gains constructively; 10-day has yet to crack meaningfully.
• $SHOP – Stair-stepping higher in a smooth trend. Not a primary leader, but its consistency and support along the 21-day make it a low-drama hold.
• $TSLA – Inside week forming beneath a flattening 21-day. Needs to reclaim that level with authority to reset momentum. Long base still intact, but patience required.
• $URBN – Continuing to form a 3-weeks-tight pattern. Volume has dried up and price is hugging short-term MAs—a bullish sign of stubborn holders.

Consumer Staples – Specialty Retail:

• $ELF – Setting up just beneath all-time highs after five weeks of tight action. Friday’s ramp came on heavier volume, suggesting institutions are positioning ahead of a potential breakout.
• $ODD – Repeatedly reclaiming the 10-/21-/23-day stack and tightening up just under prior resistance. Volume signature remains bullish; still one of the cleaner niche retail setups.

Financials – Capital Markets & FinTech:

• $COIN – Attempted breakout failed quickly after a vertical launch off the 23-day. Still above the 50-day, but will need to tighten and rebase before offering another high-probability entry.
• $HOOD – Acting like a true liquid leader. Every dip to the 10-day has been defended; rising RS and explosive up-volume confirm strong demand underneath.
• $IBKR – Smooth breakout from a flat base on average volume. Lacks explosive power but follows through well—an ideal name for scaling gradually on pullbacks.
• $LMND – Grinding higher after a Stage 1 base. Despite choppy intraday action, accumulation days continue to show up, confirming institutional interest.

Health Care – Biotechnology:

• $AKRO – Sitting quietly on its 21-day with a tight handle forming. Volume remains nearly dormant—classic setup for a surprise breakout.
• $GH – Reversal setup failed to follow through. Recent bars show distribution, and RS line continues to deteriorate. Off leadership radar for now.
• $GILD – Long base still intact, but failed to gain traction on positive headlines. RS has flattened out—needs high-volume push through resistance to reassert leadership.
• $RPRX – Climbing steadily along the right side of a new base. The 10-/23-day zone has offered clear support, and volume has quietly improved—add on strength.

Industrials – Aerospace, Defense & Infrastructure:

• $ATRO – Extended but holding gains near highs. Volatility increasing and RS slipping—could need a rest before offering a clean entry.
• $AXON – Picture-perfect trend along the 10-day. No distribution, no drama—just a steady climb with clear demand on minor dips.
• $ECG – Coiling tightly just above the 21-day following a strong thrust. A push through short-term resistance could start a new leg higher.
• $RKLB – Recent breakout through multi-month resistance held gains into week’s end; setup looks actionable on slight volume ram

Information Technology – Semiconductors, Cybersecurity & Software:

• $AVGO – Strong move through prior highs on expanding volume. Textbook breakout progression; any pullback to the 10-day could offer a calculated add.
• $CRDO – Among the cleanest uptrends in the group. Continues to ride the 10-day with authority, offering multiple entries along the way.
• $CRWD – Trend still intact despite chop. The 21-day remains the key level to watch for continued control.
• $CRWV – Coiling under recent breakout level with positive RS divergence; watch for a volume-driven move through $14.50.
• $DAVE – Quiet pause after explosive earnings gap. No heavy selling since the move, and support levels continue to hold—set up remains valid.
• $IONQ – Quantum name holding firm near the 23-day. Volume has receded—a positive sign after a strong run.
• $LIF – Building a tight low-volume shelf near highs. RS line is turning higher again, making this one of the more attractive software setups.
• $MSTR – Still tracking with BTC; pullbacks have been bought but no true base yet. A reclaim of the 10-/21-day could act as a springboard.
• $NEON – Thin float mover shaping a high-tight-flag; lacks volume conviction but pattern remains intact.
• $NVDA – Acting as the benchmark for the chip sector. Reclaimed leadership with a strong breakout and low volatility follow-through—textbook setup behavior.
• $ORCL – Still maturing its multi-month base. No signs of distribution, but needs a catalyst or volume spike to get going.
• $QBTS – Pulling back toward its 50-day and recent breakout zone. Still in play, but tighter structure would improve odds.
• $QUBT – Tight and orderly pattern forming. Quiet support along the 21-day suggests accumulation, though liquidity remains an issue.
• $SHOP – Stair-stepping higher in a smooth trend. Not a primary leader, but its consistency and support along the 21-day make it a low-drama hold.
• $SNOW – Marching steadily toward prior highs. RS line continues rising and price action remains controlled—quiet leader behavior.
• $TWLO – Rebounded off 23EMA with increased volume; short-term flag setting up under resistance.
• $ZS – Strongest structure among cybersecurity peers. Defended the 10-day again Friday; base remains firm and actionable on continuation.

Thematic ETFs – Bitcoin:

• $IBIT – Pulling back in quiet volume toward clustered MAs. A reclaim of the 21-day would reset the breakout and offer a fresh entry.

Utilities – Alternative & Nuclear Energy:

• $GEV – Moving higher above key MAs, nice breakout off 23-day EMA, above $500 and looking like clear skies ahead.
• $OKLO – Rejected prior highs on Friday but remains in an uptrend. Volatility is part of the character here; watch for a controlled retest and reclaim.