The TML Talk | June 13th, 2025

Market Overview

• Indexes and General Market Trend:
  • The NASDAQ remains robust despite volatility triggered by geopolitical events. It briefly dipped below the 10-day moving average but quickly recovered, showing resilience with most leading names respecting key support at their 21-day moving averages. The structural health of leadership stocks continues to reflect underlying market strength.
  • The S&P 500 recorded a confirmed distribution day, closing slightly below its 10-day average on increased volume. Despite this, its price structure remains intact, buoyed by underlying rotation into defensive sectors like miners and oil, reflecting cautious optimism rather than outright weakness.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues its lagging behavior, exhibiting more sluggish and less constructive price action compared to other major indexes. However, it remains within reasonable bounds without signaling significant concerns.
  • The Russell 2000 is notably weaker, clearly testing its 21-day moving average and highlighting ongoing caution within small-cap speculative names. Its relative underperformance remains a cautionary note within an otherwise constructive market.
• Current Market Status:
  • Despite news-driven volatility, market leadership remains largely intact. Leading stocks continue to hold critical moving averages, signaling that market breadth remains healthy even amid temporary uncertainties.
  • Key sectors demonstrating notable strength include cybersecurity, fintech brokerage names, consumer discretionary, biotechs, industrial infrastructure, utilities with nuclear and AI integrations, and select thematic exposures such as gold. Several promising IPOs continue to consolidate tightly near highs, preparing potentially actionable breakout setups.
  • Overall market tone remains cautiously constructive. Traders should remain disciplined, prioritizing stocks showing clear relative strength (RS) and confirmed sector participation. Conservative position sizing is recommended until technical strength and confirmation signals are robustly demonstrated.

Key Lessons & Quotes

• “One of the most expensive mistakes I’ve made repeatedly is selling prematurely—getting spooked by short-term pullbacks even when stocks haven’t violated my stops or the structural integrity of the trade. Each time I allowed fear to dictate my decisions, I watched winning positions reverse and surge without me. The clear lesson here: have a concrete, predefined plan and strictly adhere to it. Trust your technical signals and maintain discipline, especially around critical averages like the 21-day line. If you keep reacting emotionally rather than following your rules, you’ll leave significant profits on the table and pile up unnecessary regrets.”
• “Position sizing must reflect both the quality of the setup and your current position in the trade. Far too often, I see traders jump in heavily right at the start simply because they like the chart. I’ve learned from experience that aggressive sizing without sufficient cushion or confirmation often ends painfully. If I’m entering near key support levels, like a 10-day or 21-day moving average, without any cushion, I’ll start with a smaller position—usually a third or half size—and only scale up once the trade demonstrates genuine strength. This disciplined approach ensures that if the trade fails, the losses remain manageable.”
• “Managing risk effectively isn’t about always being right; it’s about knowing what you can comfortably hold. I’ve encountered stocks with outstanding fundamentals and strong charts, yet their inherent volatility made it impossible for me to hold through inevitable pullbacks. It took me years to realize that my conviction doesn’t matter if the price swings cause me discomfort. If I can’t hold through normal volatility, the stock doesn’t belong in my portfolio. Selecting stocks whose volatility aligns with your comfort level is crucial to long-term success.”
• “One of the strongest market signals is sector alignment. When you see multiple stocks in the same sector simultaneously flagging tightly or breaking out decisively on increased volume, that’s not random noise—it’s clear institutional accumulation. Ignoring this alignment because it seems coincidental can cost you significant opportunities. Recognize these collective movements early, and position yourself accordingly to benefit from major thematic runs.”

Actionable Takeaways

• Treat the 21-Day as Your Guide: Use shakeouts near the 21-day moving average as tactical opportunities to add or initiate positions—especially when volume confirms support.
• Prioritize RS and Sector Strength: Groups like cybersecurity, fintech, industrials, and utilities remain tightly aligned. Wait for clear volume and structure confirmation before increasing exposure.
• Control Position Size in Volatility: Start with smaller positions when volatility is high or entries lack cushion. Add size only after clear technical confirmation and stability.
• Avoid Selling from Fear Alone: If a trade hasn’t violated key support or your stop, resist impulsive selling. Allow setups time to fully develop before exiting prematurely.
• Lean on Relative Strength (RS): Focus on stocks consistently showing relative strength and respecting key moving averages like the 10-day and 21-day.

Stock Mentions and Commentary

Communication Services – Interactive Media & Services:

• $META: Showing constructive consolidation above rising 21-day moving average. Volume trending lower, reflecting calm accumulation. Relative strength stable. Actionable on reclaiming short-term moving averages or a breakout through recent highs with volume confirmation.
• $RDDT: Tightening just beneath its 200-day moving average. Volume supportive on key days, indicating institutional interest. Improving RS signals potential turnaround. Anticipatory entry possible on reclaim of moving averages or decisive breakout above recent highs.
• $SPOT: Riding the 23-day EMA with resilience. Volume has contracted nicely during this consolidation phase, indicating controlled digestion of prior gains. Buyable at EMA support or on volume-driven breakout through resistance.

Consumer Discretionary – Restaurants & Retail:

• $EAT: Strong earnings momentum and stable revenue growth. Technically constructive near highs. Actionable on low-volume pullbacks to 10-day or breakout above recent resistance.
• $SHAK: Briefly discussed but removed due to lack of near-term strength. Still worth watching or keeping on a watchlist.
• $URBN: Constructive consolidation above rising 21-day MA, sector strength evident. Actionable on volume-driven breakout or retest and bounce off short-term support.

Consumer Staples – Specialty Retail:

• $ODD: Recent post-earnings breakout marked by highest-ever volume, underscoring significant institutional accumulation. Current tightening consolidation above 23-day EMA appears highly constructive. Strong fundamentals bolster confidence. Actionable through continuation breakout.

Financials – Capital Markets & FinTech:

• $HOOD: Tight consolidation post-breakout, robust relative strength supported by constructive volume. Actionable near 21-day EMA or fresh breakout.
• $IBKR: Clean cup-with-handle forming above key moving averages. Actionable on declining tops line breakout, logical stops below moving averages.
• $SCHW: Swift reclaim after recent shakeout, supportive volume. Actionable on further confirmation or strength through near-term resistance.
• $SOFI: Consolidating constructively, worth keeping an eye on for future breakout confirmation.

Health Care – Biotechnology:

• $AKRO: Volatile yet notably improved action characterized by increased volume and relative strength. Watching for tighter trading ranges. Speculative entry on breakout supported by significant volume.
• $GH: Emerging from a monthly base into Weinstein Stage 2 uptrend. Constructive volume and price action suggest accumulation. Actionable on breakout through current consolidation highs or supportive pullback to short-term moving averages.
• $GILD: Benchmark biotech stock consolidating constructively near highs. Relative strength remains stable and improving. Actionable candidate on confirmed breakout above recent resistance or supportive test of moving averages.
• $GRAL: Tightening consolidation pattern nearing breakout potential. Recent volume activity supportive. Speculative entry point valid on decisive breakout confirmed by heavy volume.
• $RPRX: Constructive action emerging near key averages. Speculative actionable entry with supportive volume confirmation.
• $SLNO: Constructive consolidation characterized by supportive volume. Cautious actionable entry due to inherent volatility.
• $SRRK: Speculative performance enhancer in biotech, consolidating constructively near key moving averages. Setup actionable with clear volume confirmation on breakout.

Industrials – Aerospace, Defense & Infrastructure:

• $AXON: Strong consistent price action along the rising 10-day MA indicates institutional accumulation. Actionable on constructive pullbacks or confirmed breakout.
• $BYRN: Strong IPO consolidation presenting monthly breakout potential. Technically constructive near highs. Actionable near 10-day MA support or breakout through recent highs.
• $ECG: Constructive consolidation pattern in grid infrastructure supported by volume activity. Actionable setup upon breakout through short-term resistance.
• $NXT: Constructive IPO base forming with shakeout near the 21-day EMA. Attractive anticipatory or breakout entry on volume-backed strength.
• $RDW: Consolidating constructively with strong IPO breakout potential. Speculative actionable setup upon clear volume breakout.
• $STRL: Tight consolidation after significant advance, demonstrating sector strength. Attractive actionable setup on constructive pullback or breakout confirmation.

Information Technology – Semiconductors, Cybersecurity & Software:

• $AVGO: Benchmark semiconductor consolidating constructively, steady RS signals institutional support. Actionable breakout above near-term resistance.
• $CLS: Steady action along the rising 10-day MA. Actionable on pullbacks to defined support with logical, tight stops.
• $CRDO: Leading semiconductor equipment name, tight consolidation following a strong advance. High-priority actionable candidate on breakout confirmation.
• $CRWD: Cybersecurity leader consolidating constructively near short-term averages. Actionable on breakout or supportive retest.
• $CRWV: High-performing IPO forming textbook high-tight flag pattern. Strong factors aligned for actionable breakout.
• $DOMO: Constructive consolidation, actionable upon confirmed support or volume-driven strength.
• $GWRE: Constructive consolidation post-earnings, actionable continuation setup.
• $KD: Constructive consolidation pattern, actionable on confirmed breakout.
• $LYFT: Improved action consolidating constructively near the 23-day EMA post-shakeout. Actionable on volume-backed breakout.
• $MSTR: Bitcoin proxy, constructive consolidation around key moving averages. Actionable on reclaim of the 21-day MA or breakout.
• $NET: Cybersecurity leader consolidating tightly above the 21-day MA. Attractive actionable candidate on support or breakout.
• $NVDA: Premier semiconductor consolidating near highs, constructive volume patterns, excellent RS. Actionable on confirmed breakout.
• $PLTR: Stable RS above moving averages. Attractive actionable candidate near support or confirmed breakout.
• $RBRK: Constructive consolidation around key averages. Actionable on reclaim of the 21-day MA or breakout.
• $RCAT: Speculative aerospace and defense, constructive technicals. Actionable on breakout with volume confirmation.
• $SNOW: Constructive consolidation with supportive volume patterns. Actionable continuation breakout setup.
• $TSSI: Volatile speculative name, actionable cautiously post-shakeout and near-term support.
• $ZS: Cybersecurity leader forming constructive bull-flag consolidation near highs. Actionable on breakout or pullback support.

Thematic ETFs – Gold:

• $GLD: Gold ETF showing tight consolidation pattern benefiting from rotation into thematic assets. Technical setup remains actionable on support retests or confirmed breakout.

Utilities – Alternative & Nuclear Energy:

• $GEV: Grid modernization with nuclear energy, constructive consolidation and institutional support. Actionable breakout or supportive pullback.
• $VST: Utility leader tightly consolidating, supportive technicals and volume. Actionable on breakout or pullback support.
• $OKLO: Recent IPO consolidating constructively above key averages. Actionable setup on breakout with volume confirmation.