The TML Talk | July 3rd, 2025

Market Overview

• Indexes continued their moves higher this week, pushing deeper into new all-time highs and confirming what leadership had been telegraphing for weeks. The Nasdaq and S&P showed clear follow-through after recent breakouts, while the Dow and small caps joined in with convincing strength. Even IWM, which had lagged, is now participating—another sign of broadening market health.
• A sharp pullback Tuesday acted as a stress test, but it was quickly absorbed. The market rebounded cleanly, with key leaders respecting logical support zones. Despite lighter volume due to the holiday-shortened week, price action remained constructive. NAIM exposure surged from 81% to 99.3%, suggesting underexposed managers aggressively added into strength—not weakness.
• With the current upcycle around 47 days old, it’s approaching historical inflection territory. Still, Ross emphasized that sentiment and cycle timing shouldn’t override signals from leadership and price action. Sector rotation remains strong, with crypto, fintech, semis, and software continuing to lead, and emerging strength developing in biotech and quantum computing.
• Technically, top-performing stocks are trending tightly near their 10-day moving averages, while deeper consolidations are finding support at the 21-day. This orderly behavior reflects institutional demand and provides clear, tactical spots to manage exposure, rotate capital, or add selectively into strength.

Actionable Takeaways

• Watch the Cycle Clock: This market cycle is ~47 days old, historically near where risk windows open. Stay long but alert. Use the 10-/21-day as key reference points; a break with volume may signal trend fatigue.
• Rotate Into Fresh Leadership: Semis, crypto, software, and fintech remain dominant. New setups are emerging in biotech, consumer tech, and quantum. Favor tight bases with RS improvement and group confirmation over extended leaders.
• Require Clean Base Structure: Ignore breakouts without proper consolidation. Focus on names with defined pivots, tight ranges, and constructive volume. Emotional chasers and vertical launches remain low-probability trades.
• Use Intraday Levels for Precision: Morning shakeouts and late-day reversals around VWAP or range edges are actionable when paired with volume. Examples from Wednesday show how institutional buyers step in near key levels.
• Follow Institutional Footprints: Leading stocks are respecting the 10-day, pulling back orderly, and offering repeat add points. Prioritize those showing tight action, volume support, and clear accumulation zones.

Stock Mentions and Commentary

Communication Services – Interactive Media & Services:

• $ASTS – Explosive upside momentum followed by a textbook shakeout and reclaim of the 10-day. Volume is expanding on up days, and price is tightening again—momentum name with massive range potential.
• $META – Still digesting its recent breakout failure with volume receding and price holding above the 21-day. RS line remains firm, and setup is intact if it can push through short-term resistance on strong volume.
• $RBLX – Continues to trend with authority above its rising 10-day and 21-day moving averages. Volume pullbacks are light, and RS is building—still one of the strongest performers in the space.
• $TME – Quietly flagging above key MAs with little volatility. No signs of institutional selling and a breakout above recent range highs could trigger a new leg up.

Consumer Discretionary – Restaurants & Retail:

• $AMZN – Slowly working its way higher in a low-drama fashion. Still holding the 21-day and pressing on recent highs—needs volume to confirm leadership.
• $GRPN – Forming a short shelf after a big earnings-driven breakout. Dips continue to get bought, and volume is trending positive—a breakout continuation is in play.
• $SHAK – Tightening up nicely after a sharp shakeout early in the week. Structure remains intact, and price is riding the 10-day higher—bullish posture remains valid.
• $SHOP – Not leading, but grinding higher in a very controlled trend. Each touch of the 21-day is met with quiet support—solid barometer for discretionary sentiment.

Consumer Staples – Specialty Retail:

• $ELF – Still forming a five-week base just beneath all-time highs. Volume is quiet and shallow pullbacks are being defended—a breakout attempt could come any day.
• $ODD – Repeatedly reclaiming the 10-/21-day stack with controlled price action. RS line is improving and volume shows signs of steady accumulation.

Financials – Capital Markets, FinTech, & Crypto Infrastructure:

• $COIN – Flagging underneath breakout resistance after a vertical run. Volume pullbacks are shallow, and price is respecting key MAs—watch for a breakout on strength in BTC.
• $GLXY – Acting as a sentiment barometer for crypto beta names. Not quite ready for prime time but building a handle-like pattern that could trigger on a BTC rally.
• $HOOD – Strong breakout followed by tight range consolidation. Up-volume remains dominant and price has held the 10-day with ease—acting like a true liquid leader.
• $IBKR – Pressing toward fresh highs in a slow and controlled trend. Volume remains steady, and structure is ideal for position traders looking to scale in.
• $IREN – Gapped and ran hard early in the week, now consolidating gains in a healthy manner. Volume is receding and support is forming at short-term MAs.
• $MSTR – Still marching to the rhythm of BTC with leadership-level volatility. Structure remains intact and base is forming above the 21-day.
• $SOFI – Building a bullish handle just beneath resistance. Volume is light and price is tight—setup looks viable if it can reclaim $8 with conviction.

Health Care – Biotechnology:

• $NKTR – After a powerful spike, price has drifted back into the 10-day. Volume has completely dried up—a bullish sign if support continues to hold.
• $RPRX – Not flashy, but showing steady trend behavior along the 10-day and 21-day. Volume has remained consistent and RS is gently rising.
• $SRRK – Quietly forming a bullish flag near the top of a prior move. Volume has faded and price is resting—remains one of the better-looking speculative biotech names.

Industrials – Aerospace, Infrastructure, & Mobility:

• $ECG – Coiling tightly above the 21-day with declining intraday volatility. Still constructive and could resolve higher if volume expands through $6.
• $GDS – Slow mover that’s grinding sideways above major MAs. No distribution evident, and volume patterns suggest quiet institutional sponsorship.
• $RKLB – Broke out through multi-month resistance and is digesting gains constructively. Volume remains healthy and price is respecting breakout levels.
• $UBER – Pushing off support with a surge in buy volume. Acting like a large-cap liquid leader again—structure improving as it rides the 10-day higher.

Information Technology – Semiconductors, Cybersecurity, Software, Quantum, & AI:

• $AFRM – Coiling below resistance with a bullish volume pattern. Price is respecting short-term support and setup could explode on BTC or macro tailwind.
• $AS – Pulling back after a vertical extension, but support held at the 21-day. Flag forming with declining volume—strong RS and trend still intact.
• $AVGO – Continuing to trend after a clean breakout. Pullbacks are being met with rising buy volume—semiconductor leadership remains clear.
• $CORZ – Pulled back into the 10-day after a parabolic move. Needs to rest longer, but structure remains valid for another leg higher.
• $CRCL – Sloppy post-IPO action has started to tighten up. Volume is declining and price is coiling—could be a surprise mover if it clears short-term resistance.
• $CRDO – Trend remains clean with strong RS and multiple entries along the 10-day. Volume remains healthy—one of the best in the group.
• $CRWV – Coiling above former breakout zone with bullish posture. Still thin, but liquidity is improving and trend remains intact.
• $DAVE – Digesting its explosive earnings gap with zero signs of distribution. Volume has dried up and price is building a constructive flag.
• $DOMO – Thin and erratic but slowly grinding up after multiple shakeouts. Structure improving and volume shows quiet accumulation.
• $GRRR – IPO mover trying to form a handle. Volume patterns improving but still requires tight risk due to liquidity concerns.
• $IONQ – Forming a multi-week base with price riding the 21-day. Volume drying up and RS starting to tick higher—setup looks viable if it can reclaim $11.
• $LIF – Continues to base quietly with shallow pullbacks. RS is turning higher and volume action is constructive—setup forming for a breakout attempt.
• $NET – Broke out on strong volume and is now flagging orderly. Pullbacks continue to hold, and RS is pushing toward new highs.
• $NOW – Consistent uptrend with little to no volatility. Rising on steady volume and acting like a true large-cap leader in enterprise software.
• $NVDA – Reasserting itself as the clear semiconductor benchmark. Volume follow-through after breakout confirms strong demand.
• $NVMI – Broke out of a long base with conviction. Holding gains well and building a new flag above prior resistance—looks actionable on continuation.
• $ORCL – Basing just beneath breakout levels after a power move. Volume is declining and structure remains tight—classic setup.
• $OUST – High-beta mover with explosive potential. Volume expanding and price holding up—one of the better speculative AI names.
• $PCT – Low liquidity but structure is firming. Volume tightening and RS creeping higher—viable performance enhancer if it clears $6.
• $QBTS – Holding up well within a coiling quantum group. Structure remains intact, but volume needs to confirm if breakout is to trigger.
• $QUBT – Coiling near base highs on ultra-light volume. Still constructive—needs high-volume push to confirm breakout strength.
• $RBRK – Reclaimed the 50-day with volume. Price action remains tight and coiled—watching for a clean push through $4.
• $RGTI – Low-volume shelf forming above the 21-day. Volume drying up is a positive—needs catalyst to ignite.
• $SMCI – Starting to act better with signs of institutional interest. Still needs to reclaim key moving averages to reset the trend.
• $SOUN – Tight action along the 10-day with RS trending higher. Looks poised to break out with volume if market stays risk-on.
• $TSSI – Power move post-IPO followed by three weeks of tight action. Volume fading on pullbacks—very constructive setup.
• $UI – Quiet post-IPO base forming near short-term support. Low-volume fade after prior surge suggests it’s being accumulated.
• $ZS – Continues to lead the cybersecurity group. Respecting the 10-day and showing RS strength—base remains actionable on continuation.

Thematic ETFs – Bitcoin:

• $IBIT – Quietly pulling into clustered moving averages alongside BTC. Any reclaim of the 21-day on volume could offer a textbook entry.

Utilities – Alternative & Nuclear Energy:

• $GEV – Gapped lower midweek but immediately reclaimed the 50-day with strong upside volume. Still trending constructively and remains one of the cleanest names in the group.
• $LEU – Still chopping around support but hasn’t broken down. Needs to tighten up considerably before presenting a high-probability trade setup.