The TML Talk | August 8th, 2025

Market Overview

• This week, markets staged a resilient recovery after last week’s sharp pullback, with the Nasdaq and S&P reclaiming ground just shy of all-time highs, driven by robust earnings digestion and fading volatility. The Nasdaq held above its 23-day line after a brief undercut, signaling strength, while small caps (IWM) and the Dow lagged but tightened constructively at key supports, suggesting potential to catch up if leadership persists. Despite intraday swings—some nauseating for large position holders—the indices closed with tight weekly ranges, bolstered by rotational flows into tech-heavy growth, fintech, semiconductors, and select biotech/healthcare names.
• Earnings season, now mostly digested with over 80% of S&P companies reporting (82% beating estimates), underpinned the rally, though pockets of volatility persisted in names reacting to reports. Leaders showcased relative strength, hitting fresh highs with organized action, while thematic flows into semiconductors, fintech, crypto proxies, and select healthcare names supported broadening participation. Sentiment indicators like NAIM (hitting 96%) flashed enthusiasm but lacked confirming extremes across multiple metrics, suggesting the uptrend remains intact without imminent topping risks, though traders are cautioned to manage emotional swings from wide intraday ranges.
• The market’s ability to hold logical levels, like the Nasdaq’s 10-day and prior pivots, underscores rotational health, with money flowing into high-quality, liquid setups in hot groups like AI infrastructure and Chinese tech proxies. Fresh bases in IPOs and prior leaders, coupled with fading earnings flags, point to a market poised for selective opportunities. As long as volume stays constructive and leaders respect key averages, this recovery sets the stage for potential new highs, with focus on names exhibiting tight, actionable patterns during this volatile but promising phase.

Actionable Takeaways

• Anchor to Logical Supports: Hold positions through intraday volatility by setting stops at key levels like the 23-day or prior highs, as indices showed resilience post-undercut; re-enter only on confirmed closes above these levels to avoid whipsaw losses.
• Hunt Relative Strength Setups: Screen for names outperforming on up-on-volume scans sorted by 12-month RS, targeting liquid leaders in fintech or semiconductors that hold 10-day lines, ensuring group alignment for high-conviction entries.
• Navigate Earnings with Precision: Post-earnings season, favor setups with reports cleared, buying on tight pullbacks to moving averages; sidestep pre-report volatility by cross-checking volume and RS line strength for breakout potential.
• Scale with Controlled Risk: Use small, mental-health-sized positions in volatile IPOs or high-momentum names to test setups without overloading; build cash reserves to capitalize on tighter patterns as markets stabilize near highs.
• Track Thematic Rotations: Monitor hot groups like AI infrastructure or Chinese tech for cohesive volume spikes, favoring names with rising RS lines and tight daily action to confirm rotational flow over chasing isolated movers.
• Master Emotional Discipline: Counter intraday swings by sticking to pre-set risk plans, avoiding revenge trades when volatility spikes; use weekly charts to maintain perspective on leaders forming bases for optimal re-entry timing.

Stock Mentions and Commentary

Communication Services – Interactive Media & Services:

• $BABA: Emerging as a Chinese tech benchmark, holding above key averages; enhancer with breakout potential, monitor for green-line resolution amid tariff risks.
• $META: Forming a tight bull flag post-earnings, poised for breakout; core leader in tech, track for momentum shift above prior highs.
• $RDDT: Explosive IPO breakout with heavy volume, consolidating tightly; high-conviction enhancer, watch for 10-day hold or green-line push.
• $RBLX: Respecting 10-day support post-earnings gap, signaling next leg higher; core leader with massive upside, favor green-line strength for adds.
• $TME: Chinese tech proxy tightening at highs,

Consumer Discretionary – Automobiles & Specialty Retail:

• $DASH: Pulling back post-earnings with controlled action, shaping for breakout; enhancer with upside potential, favor strength above key averages.
• $MOD: Bull flag tightening post-earnings gap, showing higher lows; enhancer in auto parts, watch for volume-driven breakout in strong group.
• $NEGG: Explosive move with high volume, now coiling tightly; volatile enhancer, monitor for consolidation at supports for next leg.
• $TSLA: VCP setup with rising RS line, breaking out strongly; core EV leader, watch for tight pullbacks to moving averages.
• $XPEV: Chinese EV confirming broader strength, shaping new RS phase; enhancer with breakout potential, track for tight action at averages.
• $ZK: Rounding IPO base with EV catalyst, showing early promise; conditional enhancer, keep on watchlist for tighter setup.

Financials – Capital Markets, FinTech, & Crypto Infrastructure:

• $FUTU: Hong Kong fintech rallying with group support, holding averages; enhancer with breakout potential, watch for RS line upturn.
• $HOOD: Hitting new highs post-earnings shakeout, respecting key supports; top-tier core leader, add on tight pullbacks in brokerage/crypto space.
• $IBKR: Steady brokerage benchmark confirming sector health; track for rotational context, less actionable but reliable for group pulse.
• $IREN: Bitcoin miner with massive volume post-earnings, holding supports; liquid enhancer, watch for strength at short-term averages.
• $SOFI: Tech-driven finance stair-stepping higher, tightening post-earnings; core position with institutional appeal, favor pullbacks to key levels.

Health Care – Biotechnology:

• $CDTX: Biotech holding tight at averages, part of rotational strength; enhancer for market health, monitor flow without rushing.
• $CELC: High tight flag post-strong run, shaping for breakout; volatile enhancer, verify no event risks before engaging.
• $COGT: Tightening in biotech rotation, holding averages with revenue; speculative enhancer, watch group context for breakout signals.
• $HNGE: IPO holding firm with high volume on earnings, whippy but promising; enhancer needing tighter ranges, watch for base resolution.
• $RYTM: Biotech standout shaping for breakout, liquid with revenues; enhancer with position potential, verify catalysts for conviction.

Industrials – Aerospace & Defense, Infrastructure:

• $GNRC: Forming powerful flag near highs, showing breakout potential; enhancer in industrials, watch for strength above key averages.
• $PSIX: Post-earnings gap holding supports, stair-stepping strongly; liquid enhancer, monitor for tighter action to capture upside.
• $RKLB: Space tech pulling back post-breakout, holding key supports; enhancer in hot theme, watch for tight consolidation at averages now that earnings have passed.
• $VRT: AI infrastructure play with green-line breakout potential, holding supports; enhancer with high upside, favor strength with tight risk.

Information Technology – Semiconductors, Software, & AI Infrastructure:

• $ALAB: IPO with strong post-earnings gap, holding tight at highs; enhancer in semis, watch for green-line breakout or pullback entry.
• $AMD: Ripping off lows with earnings-driven strength, outpacing peers; core semi leader, favor strength at short-term averages.
• $APLD: Volatile data center play with liquid power, shaping post-earnings; enhancer with big potential, manage risk at key supports.
• $APP: Coiling for green-line breakout, resilient despite market swings; enhancer, track earnings reaction for rotational strength.
• $COHR: High tight flag post-earnings, pushing through resistance; enhancer with breakout potential, watch for volume surge.
• $CSCO: Slow but nearing long-term highs, shaping green-line setup; benchmark leader, favor strength at key levels with tight stops.
• $FIG: New IPO with design pedigree, shaping early base; enhancer with high potential, watch for tight action post-earnings.
• $LITE: Pre-earnings green-line breakout watch, holding tight at highs; enhancer, favor post-report clarity for directional move.
• $QBTS: Quantum play tightening at key averages, poised for RS phase; speculative enhancer, watch for breakout above supports.
• $RGTI: Quantum name shaping up with tight action, earnings cleared; enhancer with group support, track for volume-driven breakout.

Materials – Industrial Metals & Mining:

• $MP: Extended post-earnings, broke out of flag with strong contracts; enhancer, cautious on whippy action until tighter setup forms.

Thematic ETFs, IPOs, & Bitcoin Proxies:

• $ETHA: Ethereum proxy shaping up with crypto rally, highly liquid; enhancer, watch for follow-through at key averages.
• $GLXY: IPO stair-stepping with 1999-style power, liquid and strong; high-conviction enhancer, favor strength if tightens.
• $IBIT: Bitcoin proxy holding firm post-breather, steady and liquid; enhancer for crypto exposure, track for group tone.

Utilities – Alternative & Nuclear Energy:

• $OKLO: Whippy nuclear play with earnings looming, needs to get past earnings; volatile performance enhancer, manage risk tightly for potential upside.