The TML Talk | August 29th, 2025

Market Overview

• This week, markets navigated a post-Nvidia shakeout with resilient poise, weathering Friday volatility tied to inflationary wage data and long-weekend jitters, as the Nasdaq held precariously near its 23-day line after a brief dip below last week, while the S&P maintained firm footing above its 10-day average, underscoring rotation’s strength. Small caps continued their robust hold after recent surges, with the Dow powering to fresh highs, highlighting broadening breadth and intact uptrends across benchmarks, despite semiconductor heaviness briefly pressuring tech-heavy portfolios amid Nvidia’s lofty expectations fallout.
• Rotational shifts into software, biotech, and EV plays reinforced constructive depth, with prior leaders absorbing pullbacks gracefully amid negative headlines, evidencing institutional resolve. Nvidia’s earnings ripple amplified sector-specific wobbles, yet buoyed sentiment as gold miners and crypto-related names surged, bucking norms and enhancing the market’s dynamic undertone, while fading volume on dips kept the broader rally’s foundation solid.
• Leaders exhibited composure at pivotal levels like the 50-day, crafting organized consolidations with volume taper and higher highs/lows, signaling nascent setups in high-potential arenas such as AI lending, cloud providers, and liquid IPOs. Emerging patterns in biotech flags and construction holds, paired with receding whipsaw, indicate a landscape ripe for discerning advances. Provided key supports endure and rotation persists, this environment primes for renewed highs, emphasizing stocks with tight action and institutional sponsorship.

Actionable Takeaways

• Add on 50-Day Tests: Scale into resilient positions during intraday dips below the 50-day line, entering on U-turn recoveries with tapered volume to position for potential bounces, anchoring stops at daily lows or the 65-day EMA.
• Scan for Flag Patterns: Identify organized consolidations with drying volume near rising short-term averages, favoring those with higher highs/lows and post-catalyst tightness for entries on volume-backed pushes.
• Approach Green Line Plays: Watch for setups nearing all-time highs after extended bases, buying pullbacks to the 10-day with tight stops at logical supports to harness breakout momentum.
• Employ Intraday Charts: For volatile enhancers, use 3-minute U-turns off key levels like the 10-day, requiring clear volume surges to validate interest and minimize false starts.
• Adopt Low-Aggravation Sizing: Initiate with small positions in choppy conditions, adding incrementally on holds to manage emotional wear, exiting on violations of trend supports.
• Require Volume Confirmation: Demand downside taper and upside dominance in patterns, steering clear of whips by awaiting constriction before committing, aligning risk with overall tolerance.

Stock Mentions and Commentary

Communication Services – Interactive Media & Services:

• $GOOGL: Green-line breakout this week with potential parabolic action; benchmark stock, watch for weakness near prior highs for entries versus 10-day. $META: Holding 50-day in gap zone with prior support; benchmark stock, monitor for plays versus 50-day as rotation continues.
• $RBLX: Gapped through 23-day after 50-day hold, tightening with multiple entry ways; core leader nearing green-line, favor strength through highs with 21-day stops or careful adds.
• $RDDT: Consolidating near green-line with 21/23-day shakeout touches; core position, buy strength through highs or dips to averages with tight risks.
• $WBTN: Tightening high tight flag with highest volume ever and user growth; performance enhancer, require overwhelming volume on pushes through highs with stops near 10-day.

Consumer Discretionary – Automobiles & Specialty Retail:

• $CELH: Blast-off from 10-day after tight low-volume hold, earnings with revenue doubles; performance enhancer, watch for inside days versus 10-day entries if group strong.
• $NIO: Bull/high tight flag with super liquidity and monthly constructive; performance enhancer in EV, treat as pennant needing group confirmation for resolution.
• $TDUP: Organized flag to 21-day with tapered volume post-multi-fold run; performance enhancer in retail, monitor U-turn at breakout for potential upside.
• $TSLA: Pullback to averages with possible 50/65-day confluence test; monthly anticipation core in EV/ride-share, watch higher highs/lows or undercut rally.
• $UBER: Shakeout undercut to 50-day bounce cleaning flaws; benchmark stock, track for tighter consolidation leading to re-breakout.
• $XPEV: Post-earnings hold with declining volume above averages; performance enhancer in EV, monitor gap support or further pullback for group play.

Financials – Capital Markets, FinTech, & Crypto Infrastructure:

• $HOOD: 50-day test above green-line with flat base structure; core focus, add on constructive holds with stops at lows.
• $UPST: 50-day reclaim on massive volume in AI lending theme; performance enhancer with monthly right-side potential, watch for tightening.
• $WULF: High tight flag IPO with highest volume and doubling revenues; performance enhancer in Bitcoin/AI, careful on whips with logical stops.

Health Care – Biotechnology:

• $ALNY: Flaggish pullback below 10-day with tapered volume, profitable revenues; better biotech, watch 21-day catch-up for U-turn potential.
• $AUPH: Similar pullback under 10-day toward 21-day flag; performance enhancer, monitor for tightening and blast resumption.
• $CELC: Gap breakout on big volume, pullback into gap with shrunk action; performance enhancer at highs, watch 10-day if biotechs persist.
• $COGT: Holding 10-day after reversal, still building; performance enhancer, track for shape-up in group rotation.
• $IDXX: Tight bull flag above 21-day with 10-day closes; performance enhancer with strong revenues/earnings, buy strength through highs with minimal risk to 21-day.
• $RNA: Cup-and-handle nearing green-line with growth revenues; performance enhancer with story, watch pivot approach for volume.
• $TARS: Monthly/weekly hold despite weak day, needs work; performance enhancer, monitor for tightening if group strong.
• $TEM: Monthly power with post-earnings volume, whippy daily; performance enhancer in AI health, await tighten for careful buys.

Industrials – Aerospace & Defense, Infrastructure:

• $GDS: Double off bottom with averages under, China acting well; performance enhancer, play versus 50-day as aligns.
• $KC: Monthly strong similar to GDS in software; performance enhancer, monitor shape with China rotation.
• $RKLB: Whippy on enhancer edge with revenues/group; performance enhancer, selective entries with strict stops.
• $TPC: Holding in construction similar to peers post-moves; performance enhancer, cautious on breadth versus beginning biotechs.
• $UBER: Shakeout undercut to 50-day bounce cleaning flaws; benchmark stock, track for tighter consolidation leading to re-breakout.
• $XMTR: Monthly strong with recent revenues fantastic; performance enhancer, watch hold at monthly high for tightening.

Information Technology – Semiconductors, Software, & AI Infrastructure:

• $AAPL: Tightening post-earnings with outperformance rotation; benchmark stock, buy strength through highs with tight 10-day stops.
• $ALAB: Weeks tight post-green-line despite heaviness; core focus, High Tight Flag post Green Line Breakout, be careful on adds above averages in semis.
• $COMM: Stair-step flaggish with steady revenues; performance enhancer, buy strength with 10-day stops for potential.
• $MU: Pullback fine with monthly strong despite slowness; potential position, watch for juice in chip resolution.
• $NBIS: Taper sideways above rising 21-day; IPO performance enhancer, prefer shakes below averages for U-turn entries.
• $NET: Base with prior power, pull to 21-day at highs; institutional quality, accumulate constructive as averages touch for green-line.
• $PLTR: VCP off 50-day with highs/lows structure; core focus, add recoveries with stops at lows or bottoms.
• $RBRK: Needs time post-power, IPO base-on-base; potential position, watch for big breakout if software/cybersecurity back.
• $SHOP: Tighter than benchmarks nearing green-line; favorite prior leader, easy hold if respects averages on go.
• $SITM: Whippy daily but monthly nearing green-line; potential new leader, watch tighten if semis act well.
• $TTMI: 50 reclaim via 65 EMA post-volume, sideways after triple; performance enhancer, build for more if constructive.

Materials – Industrial Metals & Mining:

• $GLD: Pop with miners strong, monthly leg higher begun; not typical but wish bought, watch pullback constructive.
• $MP: Post-green-line settle after multi-fold; performance to position, watch on contracts for demand.

Thematic ETFs, IPOs, & Bitcoin Proxies:

• $MIAX: Fun IPO flag breakout liquid; performance enhancer brokerage, buy lower opens if patterns hold.
• $PSKY: Fun IPO bull flag, expect undercut first; performance enhancer movies, cautious on typical IPO.