The TML Talk | April 12th, 2025

Market Overview

• Indexes and General Market Trend:
  • The S&P 500 shook off gap downs with a massive day-three push on heavy volume, closing with serious accumulation. No follow-through day confirmed an uptrend.
  • The NASDAQ led the reversal, nearly posting a definitional follow-through, but remains below its declining 200-day moving average. Leadership is still partially absent.
  • The Dow and Russell 2000 lagged, with small caps churning weakly. Double inside days suggest potential upside, yet lack conviction without stronger volume.
• Current Market Status:
  • Extreme volatility persists after gap downs, with day-three action hinting at a bottom, but no sound bases or institutional buying signal a clear turn.
  • Defensive groups—gold, food retail, tobacco—top relative strength screens, while $CRWD and $RKLB offer only early, unconfirmed setups in growth sectors.
  • No major growth group shines; financials and quantum names show sporadic patterns, with $XPEV avoided due to delisting risks.
  • VIX spikes and advisor sentiment crossovers flag extremes, but without blue skyscrapers in leaders, the market’s rally attempt lacks staying power.

Key Lessons & Quotes

• “I wouldn’t officially call that a day-three follow-through, it’s not in the book, but that volume, that power was enough to make me pick one stock, small position, keeping in mind it could easily fail, it’s super early, I’d need healthier leadership to make me have bought 40% instead of only 10.”
• “Got gold, food retail, tobacco on 62 and a half% relative strength, healthy charts, big confirmation, defensive positioning, no major group setting up, not watching software security or semiconductors, little AI, quantum, sprinkled, we need to see more confirmation to lead the market up.”
• “You don’t cherry-pick, learned that in ’95, if you’ve got four or five trades take four or five trades, you start slowly, never buy a stock without knowing where my sell stop is, high relative strength, incredible chart, liquid, participating in a group that’s on fire, trade that stock.”
• “Looking at stock charts, making lists, drawing alerts, been doing that exact process since Bill gave me Wanda in 98, nothing’s changed, use Trade Station for intraday charts, run an account through there, greatest thing since sliced bread, scaling makes a big difference, get your feel, your eye.”

Actionable Takeaways

• Stay Light: Maintain positions at 10-20% with tight stops until a follow-through day confirms a sustainable market uptrend.
• Track Bases: Seek volume-driven setups in leading groups to confirm institutional buying with strong earnings momentum.
• Set Alerts: Monitor key moving averages for breakouts backed by solid fundamentals and institutional sponsorship signals.
• Avoid Traps: Steer clear of defensive sectors like gold while extended—wait for growth groups to form cohesive CANSLIM patterns.
• Test Small: Consider only small trades across multiple setups, scaling only into names with robust fundamentals and volume.

Stock Mentions and Commentary

Information Technology – Software & Cybersecurity:

• $APP: Shaping off lows; lags $CRWD’s strength—needs blue skyscrapers to confirm institutional accumulation.
• $AVGO: Semiconductor leader forming base; not actionable—watch for earnings-driven volume to confirm strength.
• $CRWD: Double bottom forming; buyable above 50-day with tight stop—earnings fuel potential breakout.
• $IONQ: Quantum stock with choppy daily chart; weekly base fair—needs group momentum with $RGTI.
• $MSTR: Bitcoin proxy above 50-day; requires massive volume—speculative, needs tight stop to manage risk.
• $PLTR: First-stage base breakout above 50-day; liquid name—volume critical for institutional follow-through.
• $QBTS: Quantum play, liquid at 61M shares/day; whippy chart—needs tighter setup to lead group.
• $RBLX: Outpacing market with light volume; needs heavy buying to confirm communication services rotation.
• $RGTI: Tightest quantum setup despite modest revenues; top watch—volume-driven breakout could spark rally.
• $TSLA: Double bottom in progress; not listed—monitor for volume surge to signal leadership return.
• $XPEV: Chinese stock with tempting chart; delisting risks dominate—avoid despite technical promise.

Industrials – Capital Goods & Aerospace and Defense:

• $DRS: Wide launchpad forming; outside week signals strength—pullback to green line offers entry point.
• $HURN: Consulting stock holding steady; not a leader—tighter action needed for breakout potential.
• $KTOS: Aerospace stock with relative strength; whippy—buy on strength if volume confirms momentum.
• $RKLB: Tight above averages; R&V signal screams upside—strong volume could draw institutional eyes.

Consumer Staples – Beverages & Education:

• $ATGE: Education services mentioned; whippy setup—needs volume, tighter patterns for CANSLIM entry.
• $CELH: Energy drink with defensive bursts; weekly power—watch for growth fundamentals to align.
• $LRN: Education services outperforming; whippy chart—smoother patterns needed for institutional support.
• $MNST: Energy drink peer to $CELH; base forming—monitor for volume to drive group strength.

Consumer Discretionary & Financials – Specialty Retail & Capital Markets:

• $RDDT: Social media retail near 200-day breakout; light volume—alerts on for institutional backing.
• $SRAD: Gambling data stock with strong estimates; volatile—needs smoother action to hold averages.

Materials & ETFs:

• $AEM: Gold miner with momentum; whippy action—wait for defined base to avoid chasing.
• $AGI: Gold miner trailing $AEM; volatile—needs consolidation for low-risk CANSLIM entry.

Ross’ Watchlist

• Communication Services: META RBLX RDDT
• Consumer Discretionary: ATGE LRN SNE SRAD XPEV
• Consumer Staples: CALM CELH
• Financials: IBKR JNVR STNE WRB 
• Health Care: ADMA AGL CORT RGC RYTM SLNO
• Industrials: DRS HURN KTOS RKLB
• Information Technology: APP CRWD IONQ MSTR PLTR QBTS RGTI
• Materials: AEM AGI
• ETFs: GLD
• Utilities: OKLO