The TML Report, March 6, 2026 – Major Indexes Continued to Weaken

Market Overview

The general market has continued to weaken, and all four major indexes are now beginning to trend lower, with significant resistance overhead.

Monday is day five of the latest attempt, and the S&P 500 is very close to undercutting the low of its rally… again. Not to mention, the Nasdaq isn’t far behind, while the Russell 2000 and Dow have already done so.

Regardless, given the current state of the market’s leadership, it’s hard to fathom that a follow-through day next week would lead to a new sustainable uptrend. However, it’s important to keep in mind just how quickly the health and breadth of the market’s leadership can change.

Today’s focus list is far from a list of high-quality traditional growth stocks. It is a random list of the names left standing for one reason or another, with oil at the top, which is only strong due to geopolitical concerns.

The combination of weakening major indexes and the lack of setups in leading growth stocks tells you all you need to know: The deck is not hot, and cash is still king.

So, until we have further confirmation that a new uptrend is underway, minimal exposure is recommended. Continue updating your watchlists, make sure your alerts are set, and be ready for anything.

Indexes

QQQ

Monday is day 4 of the most recent rally attempt on the Nasdaq. However, the tech-heavy index remains stuck below its DTL declining and key moving averages.

SPY

The S&P 500 finished in worse shape than the Nasdaq on Friday, just a hair away from undercutting the low of its rally attempt.

IWM

The Russell 2000 made a lower low on Friday afternoon and finished in the lower end of its range for the day. The small-cap index is now leading on the downside and finished in the worst shape of the four major indexes last week.

DIA

The Dow made a lower low along with the Russell on Friday, and while it tried to bounce a little bit, it didn't finish in much better shape.

Focus List

USO

USO attempts to mimic the price of light sweet crude. Geopolitical tensions have fueled this rally, and so this is where all the relative strength has been. I have included one stock from this group below that is holding up well (FRO), although many look strong.

FRO

Leading oil tanker stock FRO has pulled back to its 21-day SMA in a healthy and constructive manner.

GDX

GDX has pulled back to its 50-day SMA, where it's trying to find support. It has maintained its pattern of higher lows and higher highs, and it doesn't hurt that GLD is showing a clear respect for its key 21-day SMA.

FSLY

FSLY continues to make healthy upside progress despite weakness in the general market. This is a clear show of relative strength.

SKYT

SKYT continues to hold up and trade constructively in a tight range above its 50-day moving average despite weakness in the general market.

VRT

The RT continues to hold up and move sideways above its 21-day SMA; however, nothing prevents it from breaking below, filling its gap, and retesting its 50-day SMA, like so many others have.

GCT

GCT continues to form a healthy, constructive base and exhibit clear relative strength in an extremely weak market.

AMPX

AMPX says stock exploded higher after earnings, undeterred by the weakening general market and many leading growth stocks.

PL

PL continues to exhibit strength in a weak market, although care must be taken trading this name given its wide and loose action.

KRMN

Along with the oil names, KRMN is an aerospace and defense stock, another group that is benefiting from current geopolitical concerns.

CAVA

CAVA continues to carve out a constructive base in and around its 10-day moving average despite a weak general market.