The TML Report January 23, 2026 – Make or Break

Market Overview

The NASDAQ rallied back over the prior three sessions, reclaiming all of its moving averages and closing above key support. The S&P 500 followed suit. However, the S&P wasn’t able to reclaim its short-term 10-day SMA or its short-term declining tops line. This is the first time the NASDAQ has exhibited more relative strength than the S&P in a while.

Conversely, the Russell 2000, which has been the strongest major index of the bunch recently, gapped down at the open on Friday and sold off for the remainder of the day, closing near session lows, and just a hair above its 10-day SMA. The small-cap index could easily continue to pull back to its 21-day SMA and still be in good shape, while the NASDAQ and S&P play catch-up. In fact, that’s what healthy rotation looks like.

The Dow sold off with the Russell on Friday, but found support above its 21-day SMA, a bit lower in its pattern.

Most importantly, the market’s leadership remains robust due to the continued healthy rotational process. Keep in mind though, earnings season is now upon us, and its tone will affect how the market develops from here. So, make sure to check and double-check that a stock doesn’t have earnings before you initiate a position.

Assuming earnings season takes on a positive tone, and the market’s leadership continues to develop in a healthy, constructive manner, we should ultimately see the major indexes resolve to the upside.

Indexes

QQQ

The NASDAQ rallied back over the prior three trading sessions and reclaimed key support as it works its way back towards new all-time highs.

SPY

The S&P rallied back over the prior three sessions along with the NASDAQ, but didn't end the week as strong, letting the tech-heavy index pull ahead for the forst time in a while..

IWM

The Russell 2000 gapped down and sold off on Friday, but found support above its short-term 10-day SMA. The small cap index could continue to pull back from here and still remain in a healthy, constructive uptrend..

DIA

The Dow followed the Russell lower on Friday, but finished the session a bit lower in its pattern, and found support above its 21-day SMA rather than its 10.

Focus List

NVDA

Benchmark semiconductor name NVDA has been moving sideways since the end of October and looks like it's setting up to move higher again., Which would provide a solid boost to the NASDAQ and the rest of the semiconductor names.

AMD

Leading semiconductor stock AMD has pushed powerfully up the right side of its most recent base and looks like it could break out to new all-time highs with just a bit more time. A short, light volume pause/drift here (handle area) would be ideal before a breakout attempt to new all-time highs.

GLW

GLW has been base building since the 12th of December and looks like it's setting up to break out to new all-time highs.

IREN

The leading data center named IREN continues to push up the right side of its base in a healthy, constructive manner. However, with an ADR of 9.43%, your best bet for entering this name is on constructive weakness at key support with tight, logical sell stops.

CIFR

CIFR is another leading data center play that is setting up similarly to IREN, although It hasn't been quite as strong. The assumption is that CIFR will continue higher as long as the data center theme remains sound and the group continues to move together. CIFR is also extremely volatile, so taking advantage of constructive weakness at key support to enter is the best bet.

APLD

APLD has formed a healthy, constructive base over the last 14 weeks and looks like it's about ready to break out to new all-time highs.

BE

BE moved fairly straight up off the bottom to new all-time highs, which often isn't sustainable. So the current retest of this area is the ideal spot to look for an entry into this powerful leader.

MP

MP is a leader in the Rare Earths mineral group, which has been on the move. It has made healthy progress off its 200-day moving average over the last several weeks and looks like it's setting up to break out through the $70 area.

TSLA

Tesla has been moving sideways for quite some time now and looks like it could be setting up to finally move higher, based on its recent action..

CVNA

CVNA Looks like it might be finally following through on its original Green Line breakout attempt in July, 2025.