Upside Reversal after CPI

Richard Moglen
Richard Moglen

Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue

March 12, 2025

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Market Action

QQQ – Gap up after CPI, pull in and choppy basing into the close. Locally we have been holding this area for 3 bars and could see a further rally into the 200 sma area. Longer term we remain in a downtrend below the moving averages.

The short term expectation based on today’s close and recent action consolidation or higher.

Bulls want to see us push higher from the recent range and close well

Bears want to see us reverse back lower sharply, or rally weakly.

Daily Chart of the QQQ:

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.20.39

IWM – Pausing and forming a short term pause in the downtrend

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.25.44

IBIT- bouncing since the gap down. Rallies into the declining 10ema are suspect

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.26.21

Trends (0/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ

Shortest – 10 Day EMA –  Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing

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Groups/Sectors

Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.27.13

Performance Charts from Deepvue

Deepvue Leaders Heatmap

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.27.58

S&P 500

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.27.43

Heatmap from Deepvue

Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is now a preset for Deepvue Members

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.28.26

Leaders and Key Moves

Important Note: Many of these “leaders” are leading to the downside. Still they provide a good gauge of market environment. As new leaders reveal themselves I will curate this list.

NVDA pop higher into the declining 10ema. watching for reversal down

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.28.50

TSLA pop higher, rallies into the 10ema and prior gap level are suspect

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.29.56

META gap up but fade off the highs

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.30.30

RDDT follow through higher, we may have seen the correction lows, needs to form higher lows and reclaim the MAs. Likely resistance against the MAs

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.31.11

PLTR pop higher and good close above the level

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.32.22

OKTA Tightening in this flag

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.34.11

MSTR tight day

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.34.30

ROOT consolidation day at the pivot

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.34.49

Stocks Setting Up / Showing RS

5 Day Slope % Change in Deepvue has been my new favorite way of spotting stocks showing Relative Strength.

As mentioned before 1 day of positive action is not enough, we want to look for persistent relative strength and stocks that are forming sound bases in new leading themes. There is not much of that second part yet so we are casting a wide net

In this type of market something that can look to be holding up well can completely fall apart the next day. Need to be nimble, selective, and quick if participating at all.

HSAI tight action after the breakout, watching for continutation

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.37.04

PTGX watching for a range to form

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.36.41

ACLX biotech name that can trend, pushing above the 200sma

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.38.57

TGTX pulling into the pivot

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.39.26

ADMA another biotech that can trend pushing higher

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.40.17

LI and china names still look strong

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.41.05

KC very speculative name formign a pivot

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.42.10

AEM setting up in this base, watching for a breakout. Miners look strong PAAS

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.43.59

YOU setting up a pivot here still

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.45.31

GOLD setting up still under this DTL

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.46.17

ZLAB tight

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.46.47

BABA tight action within the base

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.48.47

ERJ setting up a range post power move

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.49.43

MP strong upside reversal at the pivot

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.50.20

GSHD wide range but tight closes in this range. ERIE however in insurance broker lower

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.50.48

UBER holding near the 50 sma, needs to respond here

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.52.23

WGS needs to hold here

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.53.43

INOD strong action off the 50sma, watching for 21ema reclaim

Xnapper 2025 03 12 17.54.03

BE Acting well in this base, holding above the MAs

Xnapper 2025 03 12 18.20.03

Watchlist in List form

Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Overall leading to the downside for now)

NVDA, TSLA, META, RDDT, PLTR, OKTA, MSTR, ROOT

Stock on Watch

HSAI, PTGX, ACLX, TGTX, ADMA, LI, KC, AEM, PAAS, YOU, GOLD, ZLAB, BABA, ERJ, MP, GSHD, ERIE, UBER, WGS, INOD

Themes and Leaders

Strongest Themes: Insurance Biotech Miners Health Care Equipment China Aerospace/Defense.

Market Thoughts & Focus

I like the action today. It still follows the these that a local low has been set and potentially some base lows. This does not mean the volatility is over as it can be very choppy as we work to form higher lows.

We still need to see follow through and expecting resistance at declining MAs. If we reverse lower sharply expecting further weakness.

Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way

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