Richard Moglen

Tight Day – Reconfirmation or Rejection Incoming?

Richard Moglen

Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue

April 15, 2025

5 min read

468 views

Comments

Market Action

QQQ – Tight day just under the 21ema. Make it or break it spot for this rally. Do we continue higher or do we break lower. My watchlist acted better than the indexes which is a positive sign but this is style a news driven market with the potential for big swings. NVDA is down after hours on tariff news which may have an impact tomorrow on the rest of the market.

The short term expectation based on today’s close is sideways with expansion one way expected soon. Continuing to expect volatility and news catalysts.

Bulls want to see us either break out strongly above the 21ema or build out a tightening range
Bears want to see more uncertainty about the tariffs/trade war and for us to follow through down

Daily Chart of the QQQ.

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IWM – Fade off highs at the 10ema, continues to be weaker

IBIT- Downside reversal off the key level and testing the 21ema

Trends (1/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ

Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Above Rising
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing

Groups/Sectors

Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.

Performance Charts from Deepvue

Prebuilt Deepvue Theme Tracker

Deepvue Leaders Heatmap

S&P 500.

Heatmap from Deepvue

Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is a preset for Deepvue Members

Leaders and Key Moves

NVDA Consolidation day, ideally reconfirms higher. Slight wedging action. Down 5% after hours on more tariff news

TSLA Forming a tight range. Expecting expansion one way soon. Watching for a pop through the 21ema

META Weaker, follow through down

PLTR Strong day testing the pivot

HOOD fade off highs on lower volume, watching for it to build out and then pop through the 50 sma

CRWD above the 50sma, some fade off highs

MSTR Fade off highs and the key level

Stocks Showing RS

Even through the market is in a correction, it’s best practice to continue to monitor for persistent RS and developing themes. Tracking names every day will point you to the leaders early as the market is entering it’s last stage of the correction.

However just because a stock is showing RS one day does not mean it is buyable, and RS matters most in the later third of a correction.

AGX pulling back but on lighter volume towards the consolidation pivot

MNDY short idea if it breaks lower below todays low and the 21ema

LOAR still strong but needs more of a pause

DASH tightening

WGS acting well, ideally pauses more below pushing yesterday’s high

TTWO watching for a breakout, ideally lets the 21ema catch up

TEM watching for a pop from this range, tight action on very low volume

NEM lots of miners look similar. if the recent ranges break lower could be a shot swing trade idea

CELH really like todays action, watching for a push from this range

GEV tight day, watching for a break higher through the 50 sma

Today’s Watchlist in List form

Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Most leading to the downside for now)

NVDA, TSLA, META, PLTR, CRWD, HOOD, MSTR

Stock on Watch

AGX, MNDY, LOAR, DASH, WGS, TTWO, TEM, NEM, CELH, GEV

Focus

TEM CELH

Themes and Leaders

Strongest Themes: TBD – Cyber interesting in growth space. Software acted well today

Market Thoughts & Focus

Good action today but the market and many stocks remain at very key spots. We’ve had a strong move off lows, now we will see if they can reconfirm up or are rejected down. Stocks are still in rent mode and being nimble is a must.

Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way

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