The Market Makes New Lows

Richard Moglen
Richard Moglen

Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue

March 13, 2025

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Market Action

QQQ – Sharp pullback and test of the recent lows, this area needs to hold. This selling has been steady and severe. We remain below all the moving averages. Rallies into the declining 10 ema would be suspect. Volatility remains high and sharp counter trend rallies can be expected.

The short term expectation based on today’s close and recent action is consolidation or lower.

Bulls want to see us put in a positive expectation breaker with a gap up and hold. Or a significant move lower than then reverses and closes strongly.

Bears want to see us follow through lower

Daily Chart of the QQQ:

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.41.47

IWM – New lows in this downtrend

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.44.51

IBIT- Reversal back down below the declining MAs.

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.45.12

Trends (0/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ

Shortest – 10 Day EMA –  Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing

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Groups/Sectors

Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.46.02

Performance Charts from Deepvue

Deepvue Leaders Heatmap

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S&P 500

Xnapper 2025 03 13 19.16.07

Heatmap from Deepvue

Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is now a preset for Deepvue Members

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.47.24

Leaders and Key Moves

Important Note: Many of these “leaders” are leading to the downside. Still they provide a good gauge of market environment. As new leaders reveal themselves I will curate this list.

NVDA held up better than most today but at the declining MAs. Bulls want to see a higher low and follow through up. Bears want to see a reversal back lower

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.47.45

TSLA close off lows but still in a downtrend and up again declining MAs

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.48.34

META Downside reversal closing at lows below the 200sma

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.49.03

RDDT follow through down after testing the 10ema area

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.49.24

PLTR reversal back down

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.50.11

OKTA Building out the flag, the 10ema area key level to hold

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.50.25

MSTR tight day into the declining 10ema

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ROOT Coiled between the pivot and 10ema

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.51.11

Stocks Setting Up / Showing RS

5 Day Slope % Change in Deepvue has been my new favorite way of spotting stocks showing Relative Strength.

As mentioned before 1 day of positive action is not enough, we want to look for persistent relative strength and stocks that are forming sound bases in new leading themes. There is not much of that second part yet so we are casting a wide net

In this type of market something that can look to be holding up well can completely fall apart the next day. Need to be nimble, selective, and quick if participating at all.

PTGX pulling back, watching for a flag to build out

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.51.38

HSAI pulling back, watching for reconfirmation up

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.52.04

XPEV china names continue to act well

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.52.42

SARO Recent IPO in Aerospace field worth keeping an eye on. Not very liquid

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.53.42

GFI miners continue to act well along with GLD and SLV

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.54.54

BE pulling back into the MAs, key area to hold for this base to shape up

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.55.26

ADMA ideally flags out letting the MAs catch up

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.56.10

RRC forming a range here at the 21ema. This is a name that can run albeit choppy. Overall has been basing since 2022. See EQT as well same theme

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.56.57

CRK same theme as RRC and EQT

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.58.27

AU with miners acting well

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.58.53

TGTX pulling into the pivot, watching for respect

Xnapper 2025 03 13 18.59.17

AEM fade but poking its head out. AGI PAAS WPM GOLD

Xnapper 2025 03 13 19.03.16

ACMR continues to trend, strong RS for Semi name

Xnapper 2025 03 13 19.00.34

VRTX biotech fade but testing highs. Ideally contracts

Xnapper 2025 03 13 19.01.29

ARQT some follow through down

Xnapper 2025 03 13 19.02.13

ZLAB push off the pivot

Xnapper 2025 03 13 19.02.41

MCK pulliing back to the pivot

Xnapper 2025 03 13 19.05.16

MP has been very choppy hear with wicks, needs to clear this area or suspect

Xnapper 2025 03 13 19.05.45

YOU pulling into the MA confluence, watching for a push higher

Xnapper 2025 03 13 19.06.34

BABA nice little range here, lots of eyes on this though

Xnapper 2025 03 13 19.07.14

ERJ forming this range

Xnapper 2025 03 13 19.08.04

AXSM forming a range below the 21ema

Xnapper 2025 03 13 19.08.48

Watchlist in List form

Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Overall leading to the downside for now)

NVDA, TSLA, META, RDDT, PLTR, OKTA, MSTR, ROOT

Stock on Watch

PTGX, HSAI, XPEV, SARO, GFI, BE, ADMA, RRC, EQT, CRK, AU, TGTX, AEM, AGI, PAAS, WPM, GOLD, ACMR, VRTX, ARQT, ZLAB, MCK, MP, YOU, BABA, ERJ, AXSM



Themes and Leaders

Strongest Themes: Insurance, Biotech, Miners, Health Care Equipment, China, Aerospace/Defense.

Energy/Oil and Gas stood out to me today

Market Thoughts & Focus

We tested lows today, the focus is on names that are forming higher lows is the market continues down. There’s not much out there standing out that looks promising.

We didn’t get the follow through up today and instead made new lows. That being said we have not made much progress downwards over the past 4 bars.

Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way

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