The Market Breaks Down Lower
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
March 10, 2025
[kt_reading_time]
Market Action
QQQ – Gap down and follow through lower ending the day nearly -4%. This resumes the correction and nullifies the potential rally attempt. Negative expectation breaker as well.
The short term expectation based on today’s close and recent action consolidation or lower. We remain in “oversold” conditions so sharp counter trend moves can be expected and volatility will be high. With that said “oversold” can always get more oversold.
Cash remains king, short side traders would likely want to be taking at least some off the table with this extension down.
Bulls want to see us a positive expectation breaker and a sharp snapback rally, ideally after a positive news catalyst
Bears want to follow through lower or a weak rally mostly sideways.
Daily Chart of the QQQ:
IWM – follow through lower
IBIT- Large gap down and close near lows just above the 200 sma
Trends (0/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing
Deepvue Special Offer – 2 Months for only $39
Try out the best platform for CANSLIM Swing and Position Traders – Top Trader Screens, Unique Indicators – Streamlined Routines
Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is now a preset for Deepvue Members
Post Market Action. A few names down due to no inclusion into the S&P 500
Leaders and Key Moves
Important Note: Many of these “leaders” are leading to the downside. Still they provide a good gauge of market environment. As new leaders reveal themselves I will curate this list.
NVDA continues the downtrend, rallies into the 10ema area are suspect
AVGO building a range above the 200 sma, showing some strength as it did not really break yesterday’s low much. In downtrend
TSLA Large extension down as it goes to try to fill this gap. Very negative but also odds rising of a counter trend rally.
META negative expectation breaker. Approaching prior consolidation lows
RDDT significant extension down into the 200 sma and prior gap up low. Downtrend currently but may snapback sharply
PLTR break below the recent range and prior base pivot level
OKTA Even the strongest stocks suffer during market weakness, still one to watch as it holds above the MAs
MSTR rejected at the level and now really following through down
ROOT inside day and holding above the 21ema for now
Stocks Setting Up / Showing RS
5 Day Slope % Change in Deepvue has been my new favorite way of spotting stocks showing Relative Strength.
As mentioned before 1 day of positive action is not enough, we want to look for persistent relative strength and stocks that are forming sound bases in new leading themes. There is not much of that second part yet so we are casting a wide net
In this type of market something that can look to be holding up well can completely fall apart the next day. Need to be nimble, selective, and quick if participating at all.
PGTX strong gap. Biotech remains the leading theme to the long side
LNTH still trending higher since I first mentioned it
TGTX some follow through
ARQT acting well, inside day above the last consolidation pivot
GDS acting well. NSP also acting well in the same theme
PZZA longer term downtrend but acting well
VEEV whippy but holding up for now
MP downside reversal but still holding above the base pivot
AWK and utilities acting well
AMGN fade off highs but acting well. BMY MCK same
MCK also working well
ZIM had been built a large base the past year or so. Holding above the MAs
ALKS trending, biotech
RGLD miners acting well, this is near the highs of a very large base. GOLD also acting well
EXEL still holding
ERIE oops reversal, insurance
UBER some breakdown, but still on watch
Watchlist in List form
Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Overall leading to the downside for now)
NVDA, AVGO, TSLA, META, RDDT, PLTR, OKTA, MSTR, ROOT
Stock on Watch
PGTX, LNTH, TGTX, ARQT, GDS, NSP, PZZA, VEEV, MP, AWK, AMGN, BMY, MCK, ZIM, ALKS, RGLD, GOLD, EXEL, ERIE, UBER
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: Insurance Biotech Miners Health Care Equipment China Aerospace/Defense.
Market Thoughts & Focus
Big negative day as the selling seemed to accelerate. However, the steeper this correction gets the greater the opportunities will be on the other side.
Going through my screens there is not much developing outside of what I have already noted. Open minded for a sharp rally sometime in the next few sessions.
The best trade right now is to work on your system and process. Keep monitoring RS, homework is most important during corrections to notice developing leaders early
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way