Richard Moglen

Shakeout Or Weakness?

Richard Moglen

Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue

April 16, 2025

5 min read

407 views

Comments

Market Action

QQQ – Negative Expectation breaker as we gapped down and followed through. We did close off lows but looks like a rejection of the 21ema

The short term expectation based on today’s close is sideways or lower. Continuing to expect volatility and news catalysts.

Bulls want to see us hold and build a higher low here.
Bears want to see more uncertainty about the tariffs/trade war and for us to follow through down

Daily Chart of the QQQ.

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IWM – Good close off lows

IBIT- Some fade off highs. Holding the 21ema

Trends (0/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ

Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing

Groups/Sectors

Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.

Performance Charts from Deepvue

Prebuilt Deepvue Theme Tracker

Deepvue Leaders Heatmap

S&P 500.

Heatmap from Deepvue

Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is a preset for Deepvue Members

Leaders and Key Moves

NVDA Gap down on news but close off lows. Negative if it can’t fill that gap quickly

TSLA Break lower from the tight range but a close off lows, below the MAs

META Still leaking lower

PLTR Filled the gap, setting up a pivot if it can form up above the 21ema

HOOD break lower

CRWD reversal down but holding that level for now

MSTR holding near the key level

Stocks Showing RS

Even through the market is in a correction, it’s best practice to continue to monitor for persistent RS and developing themes. Tracking names every day will point you to the leaders early as the market is entering it’s last stage of the correction.

However just because a stock is showing RS one day does not mean it is buyable, and RS matters most in the later third of a correction.

MP inside day on big volume but volatile

AU miners continue to trend, still short term extended

AGX inside day

GH Oops Reversal, watching for follow through

GEV oops reversal, watching for follow through up

CELH small downside reversal, watching for a directional move

SDGR noticing the volume coming in. Big move off lows but this is still Stage 1

TTWO still watching for a push through this pivot

SPOT watching for a break from this range, inside day

TGTX watching for a breakout from this range

TMDX acting well

LOAR watching for a pullback into the level and 10ema

WGS watching for a flag breakout

Today’s Watchlist in List form

Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Most leading to the downside for now)

NVDA, TSLA, META, PLTR, CRWD, HOOD, MSTR

Stock on Watch

PLTR, HOOD, CRWD, MSTR, MP, AU, AGX, GH, GEV, CELH, SDGR, TTWO, SPOT, TGTX, TMDX, LOAR, WGS

Themes and Leaders

Strongest Themes: TBD – Cyber interesting in growth space

Market Thoughts & Focus

Some pullback today but decent close off lows. Now to see if we hold or see more downside. We remain vulnerable below the 21ema and 200sma on the QQQs, still expecting volatility.

Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way

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