Semiconductors Gap Then Sell-Off
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
October 6, 2025
Market Action
QQQ – Positive expectation breaker as we continue to trend above all the moving averages into new highs. Many semis with gaps today based on Open AI partnership news.
Remember, a strong market is not an excuse to be relaxed about risk management, know your plan for each of your positions how you would handle a large selloff day. Starting to feel like we may get a stress test day soon. Be ready for when it comes.
Bulls want to see a continued trend higher / constructive sideways range building.
Bears want to see a sharp reversal down back towards the 10ema
Daily Chart of the QQQ.
IWM – Trending, slight downside reversal
IBIT – Continuing it’s power move higher. keep an eye on names in this theme.
Trends (4/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Above
Short-term – 21 ema – Above
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Above Rising
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Above Rising
Groups/Sectors
Deepvue Theme Tracker
Deepvue Leaders
S&P 500.
Leadership Stocks & Analysis
TSLA – Nice follow through up with a strong close. Ideally contracts and forms a price shelf here
AAPL still forming this flag, watching for a breakout through recent highs
PLTR Positive expectation breaker although it closed off highs. on guard for more weakness.
NVDA Pulled into the base pivot in the morning but decent close. Upside reversal. Watching for follow through up
META potential reversal extension. watching for the right side of a base to form
HOOD downside reversal. Trending above MAs. watch for a 10ema pullback
RDDT forming a range down here. Bulls want to see a gap up and good close near the 50sma
ALAB gap up with semis but meh close. ideally tightens and forms a pivot
MSFT Range breakout. Inside day primed this
Key Moves
AMD large gap but sold off the open
SANM similar
AAOI breakout.
Setups and Watchlist
CRCL sitting on the pivot. Watching for a push higher off this level
CRWV watching for range re-breakout. Fade today back into the 10ema area
LYFT watching for a range breakout
BLSH watching for a range breakout. Inside day. fast name
AMSC watching for a range re-breakout
MP ideally tightens further, watching for a breakout
SHC watching for a range breakout.
Today’s Watchlist in List form
Focus List Names
CRCL CRWV LYFT BLSH AMSC MP SHC TSLA NVDA ALAB
Focus:
BLSH CRWV AMSC NVDA
Themes
Strongest Themes: AI, Metals/Miners, Energy, Crypto
Market Thoughts
Good action today although the semiconductor selloffs after the news feels more late cycle to me. I’ll be on guard. At this point are new deals liek that likely to start month long trends or be opportunities for liquidity?
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way
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