Pullback – Bases Building
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
April 10, 2025
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Market Action
QQQ -Sharp Pullback with a gap down today after yesterday’s strong bar. We closed off lows but still down 4% in a day. We remain below the 21ema and importantly the 200sma. Volatility is high
The short term expectation based on today’s close is sideways or lower Continuing to expect volatility and news catalysts. We remain below the 200 sma and therefore vulnerable.
Bulls want to see us form a higher low, pop above the 21ema and volatility to lessen.
Bears want to see more uncertainty about the tariffs/trade war and for us to follow through lower
Daily Chart of the QQQ.
IWM – Similar action and gap down, below all the moving averages
IBIT- Similar, holding the 200sma area for now
Trends (0/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing
Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Prebuilt Deepvue Theme Tracker
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500.
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is a preset for Deepvue Members
Leaders and Key Moves
Important Note: Many of these “leaders” are leading to the downside. Still they provide a good gauge of market environment. As new leaders reveal themselves I will curate this list.
NVDA Constructive as long as it holds above that level. Watching for a higher low
TSLA Close off lows, below the 21ema, watching for a pop through the 21ema
META Rejection back below the 200sma
PLTR Really like how this is action, a focus of mine
MSTR inside day, below most MAs
Stocks Showing RS
Even through the market is in a correction, it’s best practice to continue to monitor for persistent RS and developing themes. Tracking names every day will point you to the leaders early as the market is entering it’s last stage of the correction.
However just because a stock is showing RS one day does not mean it is buyable, and RS matters most in the later third of a correction.
LOAR Aerospace recent IPO, Strong but extended
CELH acting well, ideally tightens then reconfirms up
GRPN tight day
HMY miners showing strength today, inflation fears? Short term extended
AGX inside day above the MAs
TTAN recent ipo acting well. Inside Day below the pivot after powerful rally up.
RKLB watching for breakout, tight inside day
LTH inside day, watching for pop through the 50sma
EAT watching for push through the 21ema
CRWV forming an IPO Base
PLTR acting well, watching for a push from the inside day and 50 sma
HOOD watching for push from the inside day and through the 21
SPOT Watching for a push through the 21ema
RBRK watching for a reclaim of this level
CRWD nice action, watching for pop through the 50sma
CYBR watching for push off the 21ema
OKTA watching for a pop through the 21ema
WGS watching for a range to form then a breakout
TTWO watching for a pop through the 21ema
UBER watching for a push through the 50sma
UBER watching for a push through the 50sma
TMDX Watching for a breakout from this range
Today’s Watchlist in List form
Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Most leading to the downside for now)
NVDA, TSLA, META, PLTR, MSTR
Stock on Watch
LOAR, CELH, GRPN, HMY, AGX, TTAN, RKLB, LTH, EAT, CRWV, PLTR, HOOD, SPOT, RBRK, CRWD, CYBR, OKTA, WGS, TTWO, UBER, TMDX
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: TBD – Cyber interesting in growth space
Market Thoughts & Focus
Large pullback today but not abnormal given the huge bar yesterday. Bases are shaping up in the names above. The key will be is if we can get reconfirmation up after some range building.
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way