Reversal Down – Make it or break it Time
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
January 15, 2025
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Market Action
QQQ – Gap up and reversal with a close near lows, not a good look. AAPL especially contributing. Back to the 50 sma.
Short Term Expectation based on the close is consolidation or lower
Bulls want to see us have a positive expectation breaker and good end to the week OR a big upside reversal friday
Bears want to see us reverse lower and close that gap and near lows for the week
IWM – Better action than the QQQ and holding near the 21ema
Bulls want to see us follow through up through highs
Bears want to see us reverse lower and fill the gap below
IBIT- upside reversal and stronger look than the QQQ
Bulls want to see us build out sideways here or follow through up
Bears want to see us reverse lower back below the 21ema
Trends (4/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Above Rising
Short-term – 21 ema – Above Rising
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Above Rising
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Above Rising
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Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is now a preset for Deepvue Members
Leaders and Key Moves
NVDA gap up and selloff. Refejcted at the moving averages, still looks weak
TSLA inside day above the 21ema, watching which way this resolves. If market softens more this could easily retest lows and the 50
RDDT good action above the 21ema in this base, watching for a push from the inside day but would not mind a few more days to form out the range
GEV a bit of a move higher, starting to trend above the MAs, would love some sideways back into the 10ema
PLTR rejected at the 21ema for now
ALAB move lower but still forming out this 18% deep base for now
MSTR with IBIT acting well this looks the most “primed” watching for a push higher
SYM pop on robot news with Walmart. Nor enormous volume and longer term downtrend so more suspect
Stocks Setting Up / Holding Up
SOUN tightening on the 50 but looks more like the left side of a base with that sharp decline.
RKLB still acting decent but below the 21ema now
DAL good action post gap so far
MSTR watching for follow through up
APP Fade but setting up a pivot above
GH a gap down and oops reversal off the 10ema with a good close would be nice here
HIMS push off the lows so far, watching for an inside day near these mas then push through the horizontal pivot
COIN above the DTL now, would like a short range first
BE tight above the 50, watching for a pop above
DECK forming a range above the 21ema
DECK forming a range above the 21ema
RBRK was shaken out today at the open then very strong close, watching for follow through up. Would love a tight day
RBRK was shaken out today at the open then very strong close, watching for follow through up. Would love a tight day
SNOW tightening below this horizontal level, watching for a break from the range
Themes and Leaders
Key Themes: Software, AI, Semis. Crypto, Energy
These names have the top RS, growth stories
TSLA GEV RDDT ALAB VST
Market Thoughts & Focus
Mixed action today, we are kind of at a key moment where the market has to show strength and set a higher low. The end of the week will be key. IBIT looks much better than the QQQ. Make it or break it time.
This is still a potential rally of a choppy corrective market, have to play it fast, pick tight spots, and manage risk tightly if participating. Less is more for most people until be get a nice higher low and start trending above the 21ema.
Daily Focus will be on MSTR BE
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way