Positive Expectation Breaker as the Trend Stays Alive
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
August 5, 2025
Market Action
QQQ – Snapback rally and positive expectation breaker. Keeps the trend alive although we still may see some consolidation in the short term.
Bulls want to see us hold and build above the 21ema
Bears want to see us reverse lower again
Daily Chart of the QQQ.
IWM – Strong follow through up filling the gap
IBIT – positive expectation breaker as we hold for now
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Trends (4/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Above
Short-term – 21 ema – Above
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Above Rising
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Above Rising
Groups/Sectors
Deepvue Theme Tracker
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500.
Leadership
TSLA holding. That swing low is a key level. Still below the 21ema
PLTR positive expectation breaker
NVDA strong close, trending
META strong close, positive expectation breaker
HOOD upside reversal off the 21ema. So far has held up after earnings.
MSFT holding for now. Could not close the gap so far
MSTR holding the prior base low area
CRWD some follow through up. Below the 21ema
Post Market Movers
Key Moves
JOBY HTF breakout from the watchlist
RDDT pull into the HVC and rally
Setups and Watchlist
RKLB watching for a flag breakout. Tight day. Earnings ahead
LEU watching how it acts after earnings. 21ema Pop
AGYS watching for a consolidation breakout
APPF watching for reconfirmation.
AVAV watching for a range breakout
Today’s Watchlist in List form
Focus List Names
RKLB LEU AGYS APPF AVAV
Focus:
APPF
Themes
Strongest Themes: BTC, Miners, Software, Cyber, Nuclear Power
Market Thoughts & Focus
Strong response today. Now watching for us to hold and build on it. Many more earnings moves to come.
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way
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