Positive Expectation Breaker.
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
October 13, 2025
Market Action
QQQ – The Trade Tensions seemed to be rolled back even on Sunday and today we gapped up and closed well back above the 21ema. I view us as still being in the same market cycle. A negative end to the week with more distribution would change that.
Bulls want to see us hold above the 21ema and continue trending
Bears want to see us reconfirm down, likely with additional negative news catalysts.
Daily Chart of the QQQ.
IWM – Reclaim and strong close above the 21ema. Overall still basing since Sep 19
IBIT – The crypto theme took the biggest hits on Friday Upside reversal today. Still has work to do.
Trends (4/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Above
Short-term – 21 ema – Above
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Above Rising
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Above Rising
Groups/Sectors
Deepvue Theme Tracker
Deepvue Leaders
S&P 500.
Leadership Stocks & Analysis
TSLA – Positive expectation breaker gapping above the range low and closing well. Watching for a range re-breakout
AAPL Inside day but in the lower half of the breakdown bar
PLTR Upside reversal day. No follow through down
NVDA positive expectation breaker and tight day.
META tight day and back in this range below the MAs
HOOD pullback to the 21ema area
RDDT tight day as it refuses to go lower. Expecting expansion. Below the MAs.
ALAB follow through down testing the base pivot and 50sma area.
MSFT tight day but below the range pivot
Key Moves
MP Strong follow through up. Risks of more tension with china likely a tailwind for this name
GEV Positive expectation breaker and range breakout. Watching for follow through
Setups and Watchlist
TARS swing trade setup watching for a range breakout
BKKT watching for a flag breakout
STUB watching for a range breakout
CRWV watching for follow through up and range breakout
FIG watching for follow through up off the 10ema
CRDO watching for follow through up and range breakout
CRWD watching for follow through up and range breakout
MDB watching for follow through up from the inside day
LASR watching for follow through up and range breakout
AMSC watching for a consolidation breakout
Today’s Watchlist in List form
Focus List Names
TARS BKKT STUB CRWV FIG CRWD CRDO MDB LASR AMSC TSLA GEV
Focus:
TSLA STUB AMSC CRWV
Themes
Strongest Themes: AI, AI Energy
Vulnerable Themes: Crypto
Additional Thoughts
As mentioned this weekend was an interesting situation as the market could recover quickly if the trade tension catalyst was reversed, as has been the pattern. We got that and today we saw positive expectation breakers across the board. I view us as still being in the same market cycle. I’m focusing on names that bounced strongly today and held their structures.
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way
Continue Reading The Full Trade Lab Report
Get instant access to comprehensive market analysis that cuts through the noise and shows you exactly where the opportunities are
