Negative Expectation Breaker on QQQ
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
August 30, 2025
Market Action
QQQ – Yesterday we pushed out of the range. Today instead of following through we gapped lower and closed down at the 21ema. This is a negative expectation breaker and sets a potential lower high. This was the bearish option presented yesterday.
News circling about tariffs which leads to uncertainty.
Bulls want to see a quick snap back and hold above the 21ema. Either a positive expectation breaker or upside reversal with a strong close.
Bears want to see follow through down.
Daily Chart of the QQQ.
IWM – pulling back
IBIT – gap and go lower following through on the downside reversal.
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Trends (3/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below
Short-term – 21 ema – Above Rising
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Above Rising
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Above Rising
Groups/Sectors
Deepvue Theme Tracker
S&P 500.
Leadership
TSLA negative price action here. Ideally snaps back early next week.
AAPL inside day, constructive so far although the move up is on lower volume
PLTR still forming a range at the 50sma. Expecting expansion early next week. Bear flag or constructive range? Pro is it has not yet broken lower. Cons are below the 21ema
NVDA leaking lower after earnings indecision
META negative expectation breaker. into the 50sma
HOOD leaking lower but decent close off the 50sma area
RDDT Like the action! Constructive inside day after the move up.
ALAB Testing the previous range high
MSFT Consolidation day just below the MAs. Relatively weak
Key Moves
ZEPP fast mover, strong range breakout from RMV 0
SSRM expansion. Miners strong today
Setups and Watchlist
HUT watching for a range breakdown
PSKY very fast mover watching for a range breakout
TEM showed RS, watching for follow through up
LMND pulling back into the 21ema, watching for a re-breakout
MRCY watching for a range breakout or undercut and rally of the 10ema
DLO, watching for a re-breakout
RKLB watching for follow through up
CAI watching for a range breakout
CENX watching for a range breakout
GO watching for a range breakout
MP watching for a range breakout. Ideally tightens more
SNOW watching for an HVC breakout. PSTG similar look
Today’s Watchlist in List form
Focus List Names
HUT PSKY TEM LMND MRCY DLO RKLB CAI CENX GO MP SNOW RDDY
Focus:
RDDT SNOW CAI
Themes
Strongest Themes: Software, Crypto, Nuclear Power, Semis, Miners, Cruise Liners
Market Thoughts & Focus
Market pulling in with the doubts on tarriffs. Not in a hurry to be aggressive.
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way
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