Negative Expectation Breaker. Nasdaq 100 falls 1.3%. Leaders Hit
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
August 19, 2025
Market Action
QQQ – The expectation after the recent action of the 10ema pullback was to push higher and continue to trend above the moving average. Instead today we broke lower on the QQQ and many of the key leaders as well closed near lows. This suggests at least short term caution. It may end up being like what we had a few weeks ago where we broker the 21ema and quickly snapped back higher and continue to higher or it may finally start more of a consolidation period.
What will be key is what follows and how we act the next few days particularly in the leaders. For now remain above the 21ema so the uptrend is intact.
Bulls want to see us hold near the 21ema and snack back higher
Bears want to see us follow through lower below the 21ema
Daily Chart of the QQQ.
IWM – Downside reversal and testing the 10ema
IBIT – follow through lower
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Trends (4/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Above
Short-term – 21 ema – Above
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Above Rising
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Above Rising
Groups/Sectors
Deepvue Theme Tracker
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500.
Leadership
TSLA downside reversal. The 21ema is the key level
AAPL Still acting constructively
PLTR Broke lower significantly. Unless it snaps back likely needs a new base
NVDA broke lower from the tight area. Below the 21ema
META Closed below the 21ema
HOOD large downside reversal
RDDT Closed back below the ATH pivot. Ideally forms a base here
ALAB downside reversal and now below the 10ema
MSFT closing below the 21ema again
Setups and Watchlist
FROG watching for a range breakout.
GO watching for a range breakout. consolidation day
AORT watching for a range breakout
LASR watching for a range breakout
SEDG watching for a range breakout. Slightly extended. Solar has been holding up well so far.
MP watching for a 21ema bounce
Today’s Watchlist in List form
Focus List Names
FROG GO AORT LASR SEDG MP
Focus:
GO MP
Themes
Strongest Themes: Software, Cyber, Nuclear Power, Semis, Miners
Market Thoughts & Focus
Today was a sharp down day with tech in particular getting hit. Longer term trends intact but for me caution warranted unless we get a quick snap back.
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way
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