More Market Weakness
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
February 24, 2025
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Market Action
QQQ – Typical slight gap higher so they could sell it off more. Closing at lows below the MAs. Negative action and we appear to have started a daily downcycle.
There will be sharp bounces and reversals but my expectation is more downside to follow. Obviously we will take it day by day and counter trend bounces can be very fast and strong. The recent swing lows of the base are key levels where undercuts and rallies occur, below that the 200sma as well which would be less than a 10% correction from highs.
With todays bar my short term expectation is consolidation or lower. With the awareness that we are getting slightly stretched to the downside
Bulls want to see us quickly rally with a positive expectation breaker. Or a significant gap down with a very strong close
Bears want to see us follow through lower breaking the recent base swing lows
IWM – some follow through lower, below the 200sma
IBIT- Some follow through lower, right near lows of this short term consolidation
Bulls want to see us quickly recover with a gap up and go, or a strog upside reversal after undercutting key lows
Bears want to see us follow through lower
Trends (1/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below declining
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Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap – Most down from the open
S&P 500. Continued rotation into staples, insurance
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is now a preset for Deepvue Members
Post Market Action. TEM a name of note that’s down
Leaders and Key Moves
NVDA Follow through lower after yesterday’s downside reversal, breaking below the MAs
TSLA At the key low, below the MAs
META follow through lower, 50sma and prior consolidation high are key levels
RDDT Subtle undercut and rally, a definite RS Day. However below all the MAs
PLTR Gap down and negative close below the 21ema. likely tests the 50sma and base pivot
CRWD testing the 50sma
BROS good close off the 21ema, RS day
HIMS upside reversal. That gap likely acts as resistance if tested, this needs time and volatility elevated but RS day
Stocks Setting Up / Showing RS
INOD volatile but holding up above the MAs for now
CELH still in context of longer term downtrend but like how its holding the earnings gap low so far
GRAL volatile and pulling back but holding above the 21ema for now
U watching how it acts during this pullback
SEI holding above the pivot for now
ZIM really nice action, sating to push up off the MAs
HIMS that way have been a blowoff move but watching to see if this can form another base and tighten
MELI not leaking too far below the earnings gap low
GILD acting well, in trend. Biotech has overall been showing RS
EXEL nice action off the open
TMDX longer term downtrend but looks to be in Stage 1
VTR Reits have been strong
ALKS another biotech
CWAN double inside day in spirit
NVO is a Stan Weinstein 4B-
DOCS pulling back in an orderly manner
PGR insurance, also see AXIS
And all that JAZZ
ROKU pullback into the base pivot, watching for respect. Also watching MNDY into the 21ema although that is a sharper pullback
TTWO holding up well, upside reversal
MP holding near the pivot. WPM also looks decent, RGLD, PAAS, AEM
LLY forming a range
TEM down after earnings but will be watching the reaction and for the next setup
RKT forming a range off lows
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: Biotech Insurance Miners
Market Thoughts & Focus
Another down day. Still casting a wide net and beginning to look for RS. I want to emphasize that during weakness we are looking for persistent RS, not just one green day. To identify leaders early we want to look for stocks that consistently act better than the rest during a pullback/correction.
Relative Strength Tip:
The current pullback started around a week ago and the is below the 21ema and 50sma. So in Deepvue I’m sorting my screens by 1 Week RS Rating and % versus the 21ema. On a sharp down day I will also sort very simply by % change today and DCR and see what acted best. Stocks with strong 1 week RS and still above their 21s are showing RS. I’ll be tracking this throughout the pullback/correction and looking for persistent RS, not just 1 or 2 days. Also trying to Identify themes and groups that are at large showing persistent RS together.
Getting just a touch stretched very short term downwards, a little fight in DCRs in a few names RDDT ROKU CFLT SHOP SE MNDY BROS TTWO DOCS, see if they can follow through up
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way