Gap Up and Sell Off – More Downside To Come?
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
April 8, 2025
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Market Action
QQQ – Gap up and then steady selling throughout the day as tariff seems to be escalating with China. For now we are holding above yesterday’s low.
The short term expectation based on today’s close is sideways or down. Continuing to expect volatility especially as risk is increased of news catalysts.
Bulls want to see us hold and volatility to decline
Bears want to see us follow through lower and make fresh lows.
Daily Chart of the QQQ.
IWM – Similar action
IBIT- Close below the 200
Trends (0/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing
Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Prebuilt Deepvue Theme Tracker
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500.
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is a preset for Deepvue Members
Leaders and Key Moves
Important Note: Many of these “leaders” are leading to the downside. Still they provide a good gauge of market environment. As new leaders reveal themselves I will curate this list.
NVDA Rejection at the key level, holding well above monday’s highs for now
TSLA 10 ema rejection, inside day Lows look vulnerable
META 10 ema rejection
PLTR 21ema rejection, watching for it to hold above this level
MSTR Big break below the 200sma
TGTX failure of the base pivot
Stocks Showing RS
Even through the market is in a correction, it’s best practice to continue to monitor for persistent RS and developing themes. Tracking names every day will point you to the leaders early as the market is entering it’s last stage of the correction.
However just because a stock is showing RS one day does not mean it is buyable, and RS matters most in the later third of a correction.
GRPN holding 21ema for now
AGX can trend, basing against the 200sma,
ALHC gap up but vulnerable for follow through down
CELH Inside day but close near lows, holding the 21ema for now
X Consolidation type day, watching for continuation higher, ideally pauses a bit first
GH downside reversal, see if it can hold the higher low
CRWD Reversal today but overall holding near it’s 200sma for now, I like that this has been basing for about 9 months now
DUOL gap down a negative but growth names holding near their 200smas are worth keeping an eye on as they try to form bases
SPOT holding up better than most
RBRK watching if it can hold above the 200sma and build a base
CYBR same theme and idea as RBRK
PLTR all in all holding up better than most
TMDX still building out in stage 1
Today’s Watchlist in List form
Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Overall leading to the downside for now)
NVDA, TSLA, META, PLTR, MSTR, TGTX
Stock on Watch
X TMDX VITL GH CELH VRNA GRPN ALHC
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: TBD
Market Thoughts & Focus
Reversal down today as many names were rejected at declining 10 emas. Vulnerable to follow through lower tomorrow.
I will be focusing on growth names that are holding above or near their 200 smas. I’ll be keeping an eye on the cyber theme
I’m continuing to monitor RS although I know that stocks showing up right now are unlikely to be the best names. This preparation each day will set me ahead when the market begins to look to turn.
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way