Gap Down and Strong Close – Key Low in Place Below MAs
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
March 31, 2025
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Market Action
QQQ – Gap lower below the prior key lows but the weakness was bought up and we closed strongly near highs, up 2.5% from lows. Today’s low is now the key level for the rally to hold above to remain alive.
The short term expectation based on today’s close is follow through higher, however we are below all the moving averages with a key catalyst coming April 2. Expecting continued volatility
Bulls want to see us follow through higher and then form a higher low
Bears want to see us reverse down lower and undercut today’s low.
Daily Chart of the QQQ:
IWM – Strong move off lows, weaker overall below the MAs
IBIT- Much weaker close, below the MAs
Trends (0/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing
Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Prebuilt Deepvue Theme Tracker
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500.
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is a preset for Deepvue Members
Leaders and Key Moves
Important Note: Many of these “leaders” are leading to the downside. Still they provide a good gauge of market environment. As new leaders reveal themselves I will curate this list.
NVDA Strong reversal up after an undercut of the prior low, below the MAs
TSLA strong close after the gap down. Potential higher low if it can hold here
META Gap below the 200sma but strong close
PLTR strong reversal off the prior base pivot level. Watchign for continuation up
MSTR some reversal action but the priro bar feels like a meaningful break that will need some time.
ROOT Continued move lower below the 21ema
BABA upside reversal, below the 21ema
TGTX big shakeout to the base pivot, closing back above the 21ema
Stocks Setting Up / Showing RS
Note: The market is very weak, continuing to note RS but looking for persistent RS over time as this correction unfolds.
ADMA big skakeout move, watching for continuation
CELH Acting decently, some fade off highs, in this range
CRK some push higher off the level
AEM strong upside reversal as many miners act well, watching for continuation of the trend
EQT watching for follow through above the base pivot. See also RRC
NEM watching for follow through up. Also see FNV GOLD
OLLI acting strong in this base, the base pivot is just below ATHs
HALO watching for follow through up off the 21ema area
SE acting very well, watching for follow through up. Nice accelerating earnings
UBER watching for follow through up
VRNA watching for follow through up
Watchlist in List form
Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Overall leading to the downside for now)
NVDA, TSLA, META, PLTR, MSTR, ROOT, BABA, TGTX
Stock on Watch
ADMA, CELH, CRK, AEM, EQT, RRC, NEM, FNV, GOLD, OLLI, HALO, SE, UBER, VRNA
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: Miners, Oil & Gas, Insurance, Health Care Equipment, China, Biotech/Pharma,
Market Thoughts & Focus
Day 1 of a potential rally today but a lot to prove as below all the moving averages. Is this just an oversold bounce or a key low. Time will tell and regardless there is not really any merchandise set up outside of miners.
Growth names many had large reversals today near key levels. Watching to see how bases develop but nothing much that screams buy.
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way