Gap Down After Testing the 10ema
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
March 18, 2025
[kt_reading_time]
Market Action
QQQ – After a rally into the 10 ema yesterday we gapped lower today and closed in the bottom half of the day’s range. The Mega Caps also showed distribution. We remain below declining moving averages.
Given the positive close friday this was a negative expectation breaker.
The short term expectation based on today’s close and recent action is consolidation or lower. Continuing to expect volatility.
Bulls want to see us recover or hold the recent range and build it out more as the moving averages flatten
Bears want to see us accelerate lower and make fresh lows
Daily Chart of the QQQ:
IWM – Back below the 10ema
IBIT- gap down but decent close off lows
Trends (0/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing
Deepvue Special Offer – 2 Months for only $39
Try out the best platform for CANSLIM Swing and Position Traders – Top Trader Screens, Unique Indicators – Streamlined Routines
Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is now a preset for Deepvue Members
Leaders and Key Moves
Important Note: Many of these “leaders” are leading to the downside. Still they provide a good gauge of market environment. As new leaders reveal themselves I will curate this list.
NVDA Follow through back down despite event today. Below all the moving averages
TSLA follow through down but tight action, looking to test lows
META New lows and testing the 200sma
RDDT follow through down and testing the 200sma
PLTR some follow through lower but decent closing range
OKTA watching for range into the 10ema
MSTR pullback into the pivot. Close below the 21ema
ROOT tight day action and upside reversal, watching for follow through lower
BABA pulled back below the pivot. inside day. Needs to hold here and reconfirm up.
Stocks Setting Up / Showing RS
5 Day Slope % Change in Deepvue has been my new favorite way of spotting stocks showing Relative Strength.
Now that this rally is about 5 days old I also like to use Price % Change 5 Days to see what has bounced the hardest.
As mentioned before 1 day of positive action is not enough, we want to look for persistent relative strength and stocks that are forming sound bases in new leading themes.
RBRK A+ action, holding a range here. Watching for re-confirmation up
TME breakout on volume
RKT inside day at the 200sma
QFIN tight inside day
ASND inside day after the base breakout, watching for a flag
GEV watching for a range to build out here around the 21ema
MP watching for reconfirmation
ROOT watching for reconfirmation
ADMA watching for follow through up
ZLAB watching for follow through up
ZLAB watching for reconfirmation from this flag
CRK follow through above the 50sma
VRTX tightening at the pivot, ideally lets the 10ema catch up
BROS RS today with an upside reversal
AXSM watching for reconfirmation up from this inside day
FUTU watching for it to hold here and retry the pivot breakout
PAGP inside theme, this theme has been strong
GH watching for follow through up
AHR watching for a break through today’s high
MDGL upside reversal at the MA, watching for a push higher
GILD inside day near the 21ema but poor close, watching for push off the 21ema, needs to hold here
PTGX flag breakout, watching for continuation
TPL tight at the MAs if oil and gas keeps working
Watchlist in List form
Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Overall leading to the downside for now)
NVDA, TSLA, META, RDDT, PLTR, OKTA, MSTR, ROOT, BABA
Stock on Watch
RBRK, TME, RKT, QFIN, ASND, GEV, MP, ROOT, ADMA, ZLAB, CRK, VRTX, BROS, AXSM, FUTU, PAGP, GH, AHR, MDGL, GILD, PTGX, TPL
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: China, Biotech/Pharma, Insurance, Miners, Health Care Equipment, Oil & Gas
Market Thoughts & Focus
Semis and growth names took a step back today. The more defensive themes that have been working still look in good shape. Noticing more biotech names setup.
With today’s action it looks more like we will test the recent lows given the negative expectation breaker. However with the Fed catalyst tomorrow we could also respond very positive and break expectations to the upside.
Bottoms are a process, still overall being patient and defensive.
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way