Richard Moglen

Gap and Fade.

Richard Moglen

Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue

April 14, 2025

7 min read

482 views

Comments

Market Action

QQQ – Gap up today into the 21ema area that was rejected. The gap filled and we rebounded a bit off lows. Still overall consolidating within the large bar from last week. If we can hold hear and build out a range that would be constructive. Follow through down breaking Friday’s low would be negative.

The short term expectation based on today’s close is sideways or lower Continuing to expect volatility and news catalysts.

Bulls want to see us either break out strongly above the 21ema or build out a tightening range
Bears want to see more uncertainty about the tariffs/trade war and for us to follow through down

Daily Chart of the QQQ.

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IWM – Similar action but at the 10ema and stronger push off lows. Still below the MAs.

IBIT- Some follow through higher, holding above the 21ema for now. Ideally pauses for a few days here and builds out before following through higher

Trends (1/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ

Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Above Rising
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing

Groups/Sectors

Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.

Performance Charts from Deepvue

Prebuilt Deepvue Theme Tracker

Deepvue Leaders Heatmap

S&P 500.

Heatmap from Deepvue

Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is a preset for Deepvue Members

Leaders and Key Moves

NVDA Gap up and close near yesterday’s close and 21ema. Needs to hold and build out here or risks follow through down

TSLA Forming a tight range. Expecting expansion one way soon. Watching for a pop through the 21ema

META Weaker, below the moving averages, Downside reversal off the 10 ema

PLTR News catalyst today. Gap up but close near lows. Did not close the gap unlike most names. Watching for it to build out here

HOOD good action and close off lows. Watching that 50 sma for a key level

CRWD pullback into the range after the gap up, watching for this area to be respected.

MSTR Acting well but could use a pause below this level.

Stocks Showing RS

Even through the market is in a correction, it’s best practice to continue to monitor for persistent RS and developing themes. Tracking names every day will point you to the leaders early as the market is entering it’s last stage of the correction.

However just because a stock is showing RS one day does not mean it is buyable, and RS matters most in the later third of a correction.

MP very strong action with the news catalyst, could be a winner in the china trade war. Gap and go on highest volume ever

PAAS and many miners very strong but also stretched here, expecting a pull in/pause soon

TMDX breakout. Very strong RS but short term extended, watching for higher low/10ema pullback

ADMA range breakout, strength in biotech today

TGTX pop above the range and base pivot

TTAN follow through up. IPO to watch closely

IDCC watching for a pop from this range

CRWV gap up and pull back into the range, on watch for a break above the prior day higher. another IPO to watch especially if risk appetite improves on AI names

SPOT watching for a break from this range

CVNA watching for a rebreakout from this range

LOAR watching for a range to form and a higher low

NFLX watching for a push from this range

DASH watching for it to build out below the 50sma

CELH ideally pulls back a bit more, watching for a break from this range

DUOL watching for a push through the 50sma, on guard for a break below the 21ema

OKTA pull back into the range watching for it to hold and build out

IBKR watching for it to build out below this level and then break through

UBER watching for a break above this level

HIMS early here so just watching how this develops, watching for a higher low and pop higher

TEM similar to HIMS, watching for a pop higher and higher low

TTWO watching for a pause then breakout

RKLB needs to hold here

CAVA watching for it to hold hear and then break from the range

Today’s Watchlist in List form

Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Most leading to the downside for now)

NVDA, TSLA, META, PLTR, CRWD, HOOD, MSTR

Stock on Watch

MP, PAAS, TMDX, ADMA, TGTX, TTAN, IDCC, CRWV, SPOT, CVNA, LOAR, NFLX, DASH, CELH, DUOL, OKTA, IBKR, UBER, HIMS, TEM, TTWO, RKLB, CAVA

Focus

PLTR CRWD HOOD

Themes and Leaders

Strongest Themes: TBD – Cyber interesting in growth space

Market Thoughts & Focus

Now we need to see if the recent ranges hold after the pull in today after the gap. Do we follow through down or base out and hold.

Today we did reject at the 21ema and the market is still below the 200 day & 50 sma so we are certainly not out of the woods yet.

Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way

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