Forming a Range – Futures Down on Credit Downgrade
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
May 18, 2025
Market Action
QQQ – Continues to act well setting up a range and consolidating through time for the most part. There is “air” to the 10ema which is a key level of note on any pullback. Futures down currently based on the credit downgrade. Monday will feature a stress test and we will see how we fair. Likely an excuse to pullback. Know you plan with your key names and have a list of potential add on pullback entries.
The expectation based on the close and recent action is sideways or higher. Gapping down does break that expectation.
Bulls want to see us follow through up or form a constructive pullback above MAs
Bears want us to reverse lower look to close the recent gap.
Daily Chart of the QQQ.
IWM – Constructive action building a range
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IBIT – Tight day to end the week, expecting expansion next week. This has led the market
Trends (4/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Above Rising
Short-term – 21 ema – Above Rising
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Above Rising
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Above Rising
Groups/Sectors
Deepvue Theme Tracker
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500.
Leadership
TSLA Acting well, still some air to the 10ema. That is the key level of note on any pullback
PLTR Forming a tight range at highs. Can watch for an undercut and reclaim of the range on any gap down
NVDA Acting well, starting building a range. A retest of the MAs woudl be normal
META upside reversal off the 10 ema. Watching for it to build out and let the 21ema catch up
HOOD Watching for a handle to build out above the 10ema
MSTR Key opportunity this week on a rally higher from this pullback
CRWD Building a nice handle, watching for a breakout move this week or the 21ema pullback on weakness
UBER Tried to push out of the range, a bit stretched very short term, ideally forms a 10ema pullback
HIMS Continues to be the momentum leader. Ideally forms a tight day/setup day and then reconfirms
Key Moves
ACAD gap and go move on patent dispute win
CRWV expansion higher
COIN and blockchain related names stood out
OS AI related recent IPO. The IPO theme has been working. A bit short term stretched but one to watch for a spot
Setups and Watchlist
LEU watching for a post gap range breakout
TPR watching for a range breakout. international theme see SE MELI CPNG
SARO watching for a range breakout. Recent IPO
UPWK this name can move. Still in Stage one but watching for more of a pullback to the 10ema or a post gap range breakout
MCHP semi, watching for a range breakout and pop through the 200sma
SN watching for a range breakout
BE tight day watching for a range breakout
TTD watching for a flag breakout
LYFT watching for a range breakout
GEV ideally pauses a bit more and forms a handle but watching for a range breakout
CEG watching for a range breakout
FSLR Solar has made a powerful move, watching for some more tightness or positive expectation breaker
TEM forming a range, watching for a range breakout
Today’s Watchlist in List form
Key Names
NVDA, TSLA, META, PLTR, MSTR, CRWD UBER HOOD
LEU, TPR, SARO, UPWK, MCHP, SN, BE, TTD, LYFT, GEV, CEG, FSLR, TEM
Focus:
MSTR PLTR TEM
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: BTC, Miners, Software, Cyber, Solar
Market Thoughts & Focus
See how the market handles the volatility early next week. ideally good closes but generally sideways/down. More pauses would setup some great charts.
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way
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