Expansion Down Below Moving Averages
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
April 21, 2025
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Market Action
QQQ – We got the expansion I was expecting – to the downside, with a gap down and loss of 2.4%. We did rally off lows but still is a negative day as we remain below the moving averages.
The short term expectation based on today’s close is sideways or down. Continuing to expect volatility, risk is increased of news catalysts.
Bulls want to see a rally higher filling the recent gap down
Bears want to see us follow through lower approaching the prior key lows
Daily Chart of the QQQ.
IWM – Forming a tight range the past few days
IBIT – Holding up better above the 21ema
Trends (0/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing
Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Prebuilt Deepvue Theme Tracker
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap – Rotation out of health care
S&P 500.
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is a preset for Deepvue Members
Leaders and Key Moves
Important Note: Many of these “leaders” are leading to the downside. Still they provide a good gauge of market environment. As new leaders reveal themselves I will curate this list.
NVDA follow through down
TSLA some follow through down
META Testing lows
PLTR Fade off highs but still holding this range
MSTR Fade off highs but above the MAs
CRWD gap down below the 21ema
TGTX range breakouts are being sold into
Stocks Setting Up / Showing RS
UBER holding the 200 sma for now. Needs to build
AU gold names up but need to tighten and reform for another leg up. Still the strongest trending theme
AEM same story, needs to consolidate
TEM needs to form out base lows, up today but still needs to develop
NFLX earnings move was sold off highs
SDGR watching for follow through higher
Today’s Watchlist in List form
Key Names
NVDA, TSLA, META, PLTR, MSTR, CRWD, TGTX
SDGR TEM UBER NFLX AEM AU
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: Miners Cyber??
Market Thoughts & Focus
The market had tightened and was potentially set up for higher but instead broke lower. The bulls want to see a quick rally back up and formation of a higher low.
Less is still more as we are below the MAs and in a news driven market
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way