Day 2 of the Rally Attempt. Bases Forming
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
April 1, 2025
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Market Action
QQQ – Good action and strong close after a slight gap down open. The 10 ema and 21 ema will be key tests above.
The short term expectation based on today’s close is follow through higher, however we are below all the moving averages with a key catalyst coming tomorrow with tariffs April 2. Expecting continued volatility
Bulls want to see us follow through higher and then form a higher low
Bears want to see us reverse down lower and undercut yesterday’s key low.
Daily Chart of the QQQ:
IWM – Similar action except a weaker close, longer term downtrend
IBIT- Yesterday looks to be a higher low, up against the declining 21ema
Trends (0/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing
Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Prebuilt Deepvue Theme Tracker
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap – Rotation out of health care
S&P 500.
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is a preset for Deepvue Members
Leaders and Key Moves
Important Note: Many of these “leaders” are leading to the downside. Still they provide a good gauge of market environment. As new leaders reveal themselves I will curate this list.
NVDA Follow through up after the undercut
TSLA yesterday looks to be the second higher low. Up against the 21ema and 200sma area above
META Good action after testing the 200sma
PLTR holding the key level
MSTR back through the 21ema
BABA tight day, expecting expansion tomorrow
TGTX inside day although weak, many biotech related names similar type action
Stocks Setting Up / Showing RS
Note: The market is very weak, continuing to note RS but looking for persistent RS over time as this correction unfolds.
NTNX below the 50 sma, however watching if it can recover higher. This has been building a large base near highs since may 2024
UBER watching for follow through up
BROS watching for a push from this inside day. I like the look of the monthly if this can push higher from base lows
GRPN watching for continuation higher, ideally pulls back more into the key level
TEM watching for follow through up after this consolidation day
NEM watching for reconfirmation up.
BABA watching for a pop higher, make or break it point at the 21ema
CNX watching for follow through higher
SPOT watching for continued push higher
EAT watching for pop higher from the 21ema
FNV watching for breakout higher
PAAS watching for push from the inside day
OLLI inside day, ideally builds a handle here
OLLI inside day, ideally builds a handle here
CRK inside day, watching for breakout from this range
OKTA inside day, watching for reversal up and reclaim of the weekly level
EQT watching for breakout. RRC same setup
SE one to watch carefully
RIVN popping through the 200sma, one to watch how it develops. Longer term still Stage 1 for now
Watchlist in List form
Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Overall leading to the downside for now)
NVDA, TSLA, META, PLTR, MSTR, BABA, TGTX
Stock on Watch
NTNX, UBER, BROS, GRPN, TEM, NEM, BABA, CNX, SPOT, EAT, FNV, PAAS, OLLI, CRK, OKTA, EQT, RRC, SE, RIVN
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: Miners, Oil & Gas, Insurance, Health Care Equipment, China, Biotech/Pharma,
Market Thoughts & Focus
Day 2 of a potential rally as new base lows/higher lows are starting to shape up. Key day tomorrow with tariff news.
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way