Choppy Inside Day
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
March 20, 2025
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Market Action
QQQ – Still building out this range. We feel ready for a meaningful move up or down from it. The 10ema above is still resistance with a close off highs today. We remain below the moving averages. Bear Flag or local bottom? Time will tell
The short term expectation based on today’s close and recent action is consolidation or higher. Continuing to expect volatility.
Bulls want to see us push firmly from this range with a strong move
Bears want to see us reverse lower and test the lows of this range
Daily Chart of the QQQ:
IWM – Inside bar with a weak close after yesterday’s nice push. Up against the declining 21ema
IBIT- Downside reversal and a short opportunity up again the declining 21ema. Watching for follow through to fill the recent gap
Trends (0/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing
Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500. Energy leading today
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is now a preset for Deepvue Members
Leaders and Key Moves
Important Note: Many of these “leaders” are leading to the downside. Still they provide a good gauge of market environment. As new leaders reveal themselves I will curate this list.
NVDA Rejected again at the 21ema, watching for further weakness, or a push through the 21
TSLA inside bar near the recent range low. Needs to hold here or likely test lows. Below the moving averages
META Big fade off highs, expecting a test of the 200sma
RDDT tight day, expecting a directional move tomorrow
PLTR still in this range just below the MAs
OKTA Forming a tight range here, watching for a push higher
MSTR consolidation day above the 21ema, 50 sma above
ROOT Stuttering a bit at this pivot, needs to hold and break through
BABA breaking expectations here with a gap down to the 21ema, needs to hold that area. On guard for further weakness
TGTX tight day after the reconfirmation
Stocks Setting Up / Showing RS
5 Day Slope % Change in Deepvue has been my new favorite way of spotting stocks showing Relative Strength.
Now that this rally is about 5 days old I also like to use Price % Change 5 Days to see what has bounced the hardest.
As mentioned before 1 day of positive action is not enough, we want to look for persistent relative strength and stocks that are forming sound bases in new leading themes.
AAOI fast mover setting up a range at the 21ema after a strong push off the bottom
AEM after the base breakout pulling back into the 10 ema area, watching for reconfirmation or a upside reversal on the 10 ema.
AMT double inside days
CRK ideally builds out 1-2 more days here then breaks upwards
DOCS fade at 21ema but holding this key level, watching for it to firm up and break up through the MA
RBRK focus in the growth space, watching for a range breakout
KRYS biotech double inside days
MP fade off highs and needs to hold the 10 ema
PTGX 10ema range, watching for break higher
ZLAB fade off highs but still in this range for now
LINE REIT ipo watching for a breakout higher
ASND tight inside day, a bit short term stretched still could use more pullback into the pivot
HSAI needs to hold here
AXSM watching for range breakout
PAGP good action, could use a few more days to build out this range and let MAs catch up
SWTX watching for range breakout
ACLX setup in this range
Watchlist in List form
Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Overall leading to the downside for now)
NVDA, TSLA, META, RDDT, PLTR, OKTA, MSTR, ROOT, BABA, TGTX
Stock on Watch
AAOI, AEM, AMT, CRK, DOCS, RBRK, KRYS, MP, PTGX, ZLAB, LINE, ASND, HSAI, AXSM, PAGP, SWTX, ACLX
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: China, Biotech/Pharma, Insurance, Miners, Health Care Equipment, Oil & Gas
Market Thoughts & Focus
Feels like an expansion day is coming as I’m noticing a lot of tight ranges. Up or down remains to be seen but for most names the daily trends are down. Biotech a lot of names setup in ranges. China took a hit today with gap downs, negative. Miners trending with short term ranges
In the growth space there is not much going on outside of OKTA and RBRK, and lone warriors often don’t fare well when there is no market suport.
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way