Big Reversal – Fade off Highs
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
April 7, 2025
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Market Action
QQQ – Big Reversal Up today from “oversold” conditions. There is a new key low in place. 2nd leg down may be complete (3rd if you count December chop) It would feel unnatural to just rip to all time highs from here, IF today is the low there will be higher lows formed, reclaims of moving averages, tightening ranges, and plenty of growth stocks and groups setting up
The declining MAs area will be a key test for any continued rally. Still expecting big volatility, headline surprises and lots of headfakes. Will be looking for hints of tariff resolutions and watching closely for “bad” news that the market ignores/ responds positively to.
The short term expectation based on today’s close is sideways or up. Continuing to expect volatility especially as risk is increased of news catalysts. Big fade off highs
Bulls want to see us follow through up and have a resolution of the tariff situation
Bears want to see us reverse back lower and undercut today’s low
Daily Chart of the QQQ.
IWM – Big fade off highs, downtrend
IBIT- Negative expectation breaker, at the 200sma
Trends (0/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing
Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Prebuilt Deepvue Theme Tracker
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500.
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is a preset for Deepvue Members
Leaders and Key Moves
Important Note: Many of these “leaders” are leading to the downside. Still they provide a good gauge of market environment. As new leaders reveal themselves I will curate this list.
NVDA Big reversal up, still below all the moving averages
TSLA subtle undercut, watching for it to hold this low
META Reversal up, below MAs
PLTR Reversal, up, good close
MSTR Big fade at the 21ema
TGTX Big reversal, holding the pivot
Stocks Showing RS
Even through the market is in a correction, it’s best practice to continue to monitor for persistent RS and developing themes. Tracking names every day will point you to the leaders early as the market is entering it’s last stage of the correction.
However just because a stock is showing RS one day does not mean it is buyable, and RS matters most in the later third of a correction.
ALHC holding trend
GRPN pulling back to the 21ema
VRNA watching how a base forms here, powerful trend
CELH holding the 21ema
X significant move
GH higher low today
TMDX forming out base lows
Today’s Watchlist in List form
Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Overall leading to the downside for now)
NVDA, TSLA, META, PLTR, MSTR, TGTX
Stock on Watch
X TMDX VITL GH CELH VRNA GRPN ALHC
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: Miners, Oil & Gas, Insurance, Health Care Equipment, China, Biotech/Pharma,
Market Thoughts & Focus
The type of reversal we were expecting today. Today could be the “low” but is likely not the best low risk buy point even if that is the case. Nothing terribly exciting shaping up yet. See if we get follow through up
I will be focusing on growth names that are holding above or near their 200 smas.
I’m continuing to monitor RS although I know that stocks showing up right now are unlikely to be the best names. This preparation each day will set me ahead when the market begins to look to turn.
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way