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Back Below the 21ema to End 2025

Richard Moglen
Richard Moglen

Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue

January 1, 2026
14 min read
Market Trend Status
Trend: 3 of 4 DOWN
✗ 10 EMA ✗ 21 EMA ✗ 50 SMA ✓ 200 SMA

Market Action

Distributive action to end the year and we are back below the 21ema. Not many themes working currently.

But all that can change quickly!

I have a few shorts on the watchlist for feedback but I am currently in cash and not looking to do much.

The best action for the bulls would be some more intense selling to spike fear and then positive expectation breakers/gap ups as names shape up.

QQQ
Follow through down breaking below the moving averages
QQQ chart
IWM
Testing the 50sma now. Leading to the downside
IWM chart
IBIT
Gap up the sold off the open back to the range
IBIT chart

Trends 1/4 Up – based on the QQQ

Shortest – 10 Day EMA –   Below
Short-term – 21 ema – Below
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Above Rising

Current View: Choppy/Corrective

Groups/Sectors

Deepvue Theme Tracker
Growth themes sold off the open
Deepvue Theme Tracker
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
Semis expansion down
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P Heatmap
S&P Heatmap

Leadership Stocks & Analysis

TSLA
If this is going to lead in 2026, it will reclaim the 21ema first.
TSLA chart
GOOG
Holding up in this range above the 21ema
GOOG chart
AAPL
Close below the 50sma, still overall in this range
AAPL chart
META
Inside day but close at lows. All moving averages compressed
META chart
AMZN
Downside reversal off the range high
AMZN chart
INTC
Slight downside reversal off the 21ema
INTC chart
PLTR
More follow through down
PLTR chart
NVDA
Downside Reversal
NVDA chart
MU
Pull in lower. holding up much better than most
MU chart
BE
Below the moving averages, slight upside reversal
BE chart
LLY
Extremely tight. likely expands.
LLY chart
FSLR
Leaking lower
FSLR chart
MSFT
Could not push from the range.
MSFT chart

Key Moves

AXSM
Strong Catalyst move on FDA Priority Review for their alzheimers drug
AXSM chart

Setups and Watchlist

CSIQ
Watching for a range breakdown. For feedback. If it does a failed breakdown that's info as well.
CSIQ chart
FLNC
Watching for a range breakdown
FLNC chart
PL
Space stocks holding up better than most. Watching this
PL chart
TXG
Watching for a 21ema pop
TXG chart
LUNR
Space theme, watching for a range breakout
LUNR chart
ZIM
Just tracking this. Moving towards the big weekly stage 2 level. Growth currently weak.
ZIM chart
RKLB
Pulling into the "pivot"
RKLB chart
AMD
Semis currently weak but want to track this. I like how it's holding above the reversal low.
AMD chart
SNDK
Watching for a pullback to the 21ema/level
SNDK chart
TVTX
Watching for a push higher off the 10ema
TVTX chart
WVE
Watching for a push off the former range pivot area
WVE chart
NAVN
Will be keeping an eye on this name
NAVN chart
TTAN
Tracking this
TTAN chart
FTAI
Inside day after the breakout
FTAI chart

Watchlist & Themes

Larger Watchlist/ Relative Strength List

CSIQ FLNC PL TXG LUNR ZIM RKLB AMD SNDK TVTX WVE NAVN TTAN FTAI TSLA

Daily Focus List

MENTAL_CAPITAL PL LUNR CSIQ

Universe List

AAPL ALAB AMD AMZN APLD ARM BABA BE BKKT CCJ CLSK CRDO CRS DELL FIX FLS FSLR GGAL GOOG GOOGL GRAL HOOD HUT INSM INTC LEU LMND MELI META MSFT MU NBIS NET NIO NVDA OPEN PATH PLTR QCOM RGTI RKLB RMBS SHOP SNDK SNOW SOUN STNG STRL STUB TAC TEM TER TWLO VRT MDGL RIVN SEDG TDC VCYT U QLYS NXT DDOG METC TXG ASTS CRWD FLY CSIQ RDDT ANF BTU FROG LRCX LUMN REAL UPWK VICR SANM INOD GSAT JAZZ APPN COLL ESTA SMTC DOCN TSLA DY GEV WGS AMTM EGO KSS FLNC CIFR AEIS BKV LSCC EOSE PL TVTX PARR SEI LLY HCC CLS TTAN HOUS RGEN MDB GEMI YOU HNGE TARS COCO GH NTRA LLY

Recent Gaps

AKAM AMD AMGN AMZN ANF APPN BBAI BE CAH COHR CRS DDOG DOCN DY EXPE FLS FROG GCT GGAL GH GTX HAE HCC ILMN INTC ISRG LC LMND MEDP NET OPEN PAM PBF PEGA PGNY PLNT QCOM QLYS RDDT RIVN ROK SANM SITM SLDP TDC TWLO TXG U VCYT VIAV VICR VIST XMTR YPF AEO FROG CRDO MDB CRDO AEO PATH PL PLAB MSOS TLRY PL MU

Additional Thoughts

Choppy Distributive action to end 2025. Not much going on. Biotech and Space themes acting the best. Expecting chop to start the year. Just have to do the homework to be ready for when the opportunities shape up which can happen very quickly.

Recent Trade Lab Reports

  • xnapper 2025 12 30 16.34.13.png

    Fade. TSLA Below the 21ema
    December 30, 2025
    13 min read

  • Gap Down, Attempted Reversals Up
    December 29, 2025
    15 min read
  • xnapper 2025 12 28 07.25.37.png

    Semis and Mega Caps Coiled
    December 28, 2025
    15 min read
  • xnapper 2025 12 25 16.10.08.png

    Tight Ranges. Semis Ready for Expansion
    December 25, 2025
    15 min read
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