The 5 Biggest Winners of 2024 traderlion

Analyzing 2024’s Five Biggest Winners

Ameet Rai
Ameet Rai

Electrical Engineer and Swing Trader focused on achieving super-performance. Through extensive studies of previous super-performance stocks and proprietary data-based research I provide guidance for new traders with an emphasis on building processes and teaching traders how to think and trade for themselves.

Consistently catching life-changing moves in the stock market is difficult, and for most nearly impossible. This is because they don’t put in the work to…

  1. Build the skill to spot these types of moves
  2. Have the confidence to trade these types of moves
  3. The determination to improve if they missed these types of moves

The purpose of this week’s edition is to provide you with the analysis to strengthen your pattern recognition so that you can build a system (and more importantly, the confidence) to catch these names in the future.

The General Market Environment to End ‘23 Into ‘24

To effectively study historical winners, it’s a must to identify the environment in which those stocks were able to perform. That’s why we’re starting today’s deep dive with a look at the market environment to end 2023 into the start of 2024.

The facts:

  1. The SPX Bottoms on October 27th, 2023 with a classic Reversal Extension (Oliver Kell Price Cycle). Base depth from the August pullback to lows was right around 11%
  2. The SPX then has a breakaway gap on November 14th, 2023 in response to inflation data news. Lockout rally engaged…
  3. On December 11, 2023 the SPX reclaimed August highs, continuing the strength from November’s breakaway gap.
  4. Price action was then strong to start ‘24, and only pulled back to the rising 21EMA 2x before continuing much higher over the next couple of months. New highs on January 19th, 2024
  5. The SPX tops out on April 1st, 2024 before undergoing nearly a 6% correction in a 3 week span

We say all of this to show that the environment was quite healthy, and when this is the case your focus should be on trading individual stocks, which is where most of the alpha is generated for retail investors.

image 23
We’ve plotted the 21-Day EMA as this is a good MA to use for historical study.

Key Industries / Sectors So Far This Year (Group Moves!)

Why is Sector and Industry Strength Important?

image 24

Once you have determined the direction of the general market, the next most important thing to get correct is which sectors and industry groups are leading the market, no matter the direction.

It’s important to remember that the direction of a stock’s price is almost 50% directly attributable to its sector and industry group, according to studies done at William O’Neil + Co. So, it’s an essential component not only to achieving enormous gains in the stock market but to your risk management process as well.

So far this year, these are the industries seeing the most upside action:

  • Semiconductors / AI (NVDA, PI, SMTC, SMCI, ARM, AMD, SOUN)
  • Cryptocurrency (COIN, CLSK, MSTR, MARA)
  • Precious Metals (Silver, Copper, Gold)
  • Restaurants (SG, SHAK, CAVA)
  • Energy (CEG, VRT)
  • Biotechnology/Healthcare (CGEM, VKTX, RNA, SWAV, ESTA)
  • Software (APP, GCT)

With that being said, let’s get into our chart deep dive.

Deep Dive #1: NVDA

image 25

Key Notes:

  • Prior uptrend (over 200%)
  • Multi-month base (August – January)
  • Base Depth: 22%, 2x the market level (within range for the strongest growth stocks)
  • Bottomed: October 31st, 2023 (4 days after the market did)
  • Broke Out: January 8th, 2024 (the same day market bounced off 21EMA)
  • Topped: March 8th, 2024 (3 weeks before the market did)
  • % Gain from Breakout To Top: 94.5%

Entry & Stop Loss Tactics:

  • 50DMA Bounce: Could be starting a position in this area as price holds the rising 50DMA. $475 entry with a stop under $450 makes sense in this region.
  • Major Livermore Level Breakout: Price breaks above the $500 whole number and to new highs on January 8th, 2024. Using the low of the recent swing low, you’d be able to have stops within 7%.

Deep Dive #2: SMCI

image 26

Key Notes:

  • Prior uptrend (over 150%)
  • Multi-month base (August – January)
  • Base Depth: 35%, right at that 3x the market level which is normal for high-octane growth stocks
  • Bottomed: October 31st, 2023 (4 days after the market did)
  • Broke Out: January 19th, 2024 (same day as market reached new highs)
  • Topped: March 8th, 2024 (3 weeks before the market did)
  • % Gain from Breakout To Top: 241%

Entry & Stop Loss Tactics:

  • Alternative Pivot / Early Entry on 1/4/2024 as price breaks through 10/20EMAs, Stop Loss under the $275 whole number (anywhere from 2-5% stop loss from entry)
  • 20EMA Pullback Entry on 1/17 or 1/18 (cherrypicked, hard in real time but doable if you have the system in place), Stop Loss Under $300 whole number (anywhere from 2-5% below entry)
  • Breakout To New Highs on gap & go news @357 on 1/19/2024, Stop Loss under $340 (LOD) about 5% from entry

Deep Dive #3: ARM

image 27

Key Notes:

  • IPO Base Depth: 21% (2x general market, same as NVDA)
  • 9-week long base before breakout
  • Bottomed: October 20th, 2023 (1 week before the market)
  • Broke Out: November 11th, 2023 & February 8th, 2024
  • Topped: February 12th, 2024 (2 months before the market)
  • % Gain from Breakout To Top: 185%

Entry & Stop Loss Tactics:

  • IPO Base Breakout on November 20th, 2023 @ $56.50, stop loss under swing low @ $53.50
  • High Volume Close on February 9th @ $113.90, stop loss dependent on style but if chose LOD, about 8.5%

Deep Dive #4: COIN

image 28

Key Notes:

  • Prior uptrend (over 110%)
  • Multi-month base (July – November)
  • Base Depth: 38%, 3x general market
  • Bottomed: September 25th, 2023 (one month before the market did)
  • Broke Out: November 24th, 2023 19th, 2024
  • Topped: March 25th, 2024
  • % Gain from Breakout To Top: 150%

Entry & Stop Loss Tactics:

  • Post earnings in November: COIN gapped through the moving averages on 11/3/2023, and hung around the earnings day close for a couple of sessions. Active traders could have been positioning in this area if conviction in this name was high.
  • Off of Prior Highs: After breaking out to new highs in December, COIN pulled back to this exact point from the start of 2024 into mid-February. Active traders could have been establishing positions in this area on February 7th, 2024.

Overall, the COIN chart visualized above does not provide a ton of clean opportunities like NVDA, SMCI, or ARM. This is how the market goes — it’s never easy, and some winners require less than traditional entry tactics to get on board.

Deep Dive #5: MSTR

image 29

Key Notes:

  • Prior uptrend (over 100%)
  • Multi-month base (July – November)
  • Base Depth: 35%, 3x general market (normal for high-octane growth stocks to correct 2-3x the general market)
  • Bottomed: October 4th, 2023
  • Broke Out: February 8th, 2024 (through the 10/20/50DMAs)
  • Topped: March 27th, 2024
  • % Gain from Breakout To Top: 280%

Entry & Stop Loss Tactics:

Much like COIN, MSTR did not provide many ‘traditional’ breakout buy points. There were many gap ups in price (especially through moving averages) that could have been traded for aggressive participants, but the clearest/most traditional buy point was the following:

  • 10 EMA Consolidation: After a big move which started February 8th, MSTR consolidated on the 10EMA for 4 sessions. This consolidation allowed for traders & investors alike to build a position vs. the 10EMA, accepting risk to be anywhere from 3-5% depending on entry prices. From this area, price would go on to nearly triple.

67 Stocks To Study

We wanted to end today’s deep dive by giving you a list of names that are performing well so far this year.

While each of these names may not be leading the market now or by the end of the year, their setups are worth studying nonetheless.

Here’s the list:

AAXN ALAB ALPN ALTM APGE APP AS BMA CAVA CEG CGEM CLSK CTRI CVNA DELL DJT DOOR DXYZ DYN EME ESTA FLEX FLR FMC FNF FNV FTAI FUSN GCT GE GEV GGAL JANX KLG KSPI LOAR MNDR MOD MRUS MSTR NVDA OSCR PACS PI PRAX RBRK RDDT RILY RNA ROOT SE SG SMCI SMTC SOLV SPOT STAA SWAV TARS TBBB ULS VERA VITL VKTX VRT VST

And, if you want to generate a similar scan on your own, here’s the criteria we’ve used to generate these names via Deepvue:

image 30

Putting It All Together

The only way you’re going to catch future winners in the stock market is by studying historical ones. This exercise allows you to build a feel for what winning stocks do, how they breakout, and where your system would have been able to get you in/out of the name in question.

We hope you’ve enjoyed today’s deep dive and will spend some time over the next couple of weeks marking up some of these charts on your own!

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