The TML Report, March 3rd, 2026 – Constructive Shakeout or Fake-out?

Market Overview

On one hand, today’s action looked like a constructive shakeout across all four major indexes. On the other hand, all four indexes are now trading below their key 50-day SMAs following a major Nasdaq non-confirmation.

The bulls are pointing to the fact that the major indexes gapped down at the open, undercutting key support, then rallied back to close near session highs.

Conversely, bears point out that all four major indexes made a lower low today, even though they didn’t close there.

Most of the semiconductor group finally weakened today, ASML and LRCX rolled over and are now testing their 50-day SMAs, not to mention the leading memory stocks such as SNDK, WDC, and STX also weakened significantly this afternoon.

The bottom line is that high-RS leaders aren’t holding up the market; they are now being dragged down by it. The only area of the market showing clear relative strength across the board right now is the oil and gas stocks.

So, until we have further confirmation that a new uptrend is underway, minimal exposure is recommended. Continue updating your watchlists, make sure your alerts are set, and be ready for anything.

Indexes

qqq

The NASDAQ Composite made a lower low this afternoon as it undercut near-term support not too far from its 200-SMA, but it ultimately bounced and finished near session highs. Today's action was constructive; however, the tech-heavy index is still trending lower below its key 50-day SMA.

spy

The S&P 500 shook out constructively on the day, just like the NASDAQ did; however, it continues to trade below its key 50-day SMA, which is not a sign of a healthy index.

iwm

The Russell 2000 continues to hold up the best of the four major indexes; however, today was its first close below its 50-day SMA.

dia

The Dow shook out constructively below significant prior lows and finished the day strong; however, today was its third day in a row living below its 50-day SMA, which is not ideal.

Focus List

TSLA

TSLA has pulled back to a significant area of support at its 200-day moving average and it's hi, it's from the end of 2021. How it handles this area will be telling.

NVDA

For now, NVDA is acting instructively above its key 200-day SMA. How it handles this significant area of support could make or break the group and affect the rest of the tech sector.

ASML

Ideally, I'm looking for ASML to continue base building above its key 50-day SMA.

LRCX

Ideally, I'm looking for LRCX to continue base building above its key 50-day SMA.

SKYT

SKYT has been trading sideways in a tight range on light volume over the last month and looks like it wants to move up the right side of its consolidation despite weakness in the general market.

ICHR

ICHR is exhibiting extreme strength in a weak market and shaping up extremely well on all three time frames.

PL

PL continues to work its way up the right side of its most recent consolidation, in a healthy and constructive manner, ignoring weakness in the general market.

ASTS

Today's range breakout from a tight sideways consolidation on heavy volume in the ASTS, back above all of its key moving averages, put it back on my radar this afternoon. This group continues to hold up pretty well.

SATS

SATS picked up volume as it broke out of a tight sideways consolidation along its 65-day EMA, and it looks like it's setting up to go higher.

FSLY

FSLY has broken out since the last report and continues to look healthy and constructive.