The TML Report January, 17, 2026 – Will the NASDAQ Finally Break Out or Break Down?

Market Overview

The NASDAQ was still the weakest major index of the bunch by the end of Friday’s trading session, while the Russell 2000 continued to lead the way. On a positive note, NVDA has reclaimed its 50-day SMA, which is helpful.

More importantly, a healthy rotational process continues to produce healthy, broad-based leadership. The list below focuses on technology- and energy-related names. However, there’s no shortage of sound setups developing in other areas of the market’s high-growth leadership, including, but not limited to, healthcare, space, defense, and other big themes within the tech sector.

As I always say, watch the leaders and do your homework. This means maintaining an up-to-date watchlist, setting your alerts, and then waiting patiently, with your focus on risk management.

Indexes

QQQ

Waiting on the NASDAQ to pick a direction as it continues to struggle below the November 4th gap down, yet remains above key support at its 50-day SMA.

SPY

The S&P 500 continues to exhibit stronger, tighter price action than the tech-heavy index, which is much closer to its 50-day SMA.

IWM

Russell 2000 continues to lead the way, moving almost vertically higher for the last two weeks.

DIA

The Dow continues to hold up in a fairly tight range above prior highs and its 10-day SMA.

Focus List

GOOGL

Google has pulled back constructively to the confluence of its prior high and 10-day SMA, where it may offer a prime spot to buy or add soon if you are already long. action will be telling.

AMD

AMD has pushed through major resistance over the last week on heavy volume, and it looks like it setting up to continue higher. Another day or two of rest above key support would be ideal before another attempt to move higher.

ALAB

ALAB is a very volatile name, so being selective with your entry is key. On one hand, if volume is there, strength can be used to buy through the $182.53 pivot point with a sell stop at Friday's low. On the other hand, constructive weakness to key support above its KMAs, works as well.

TSEM

Leading semiconductor stock, TSEM, is attempting to break out of a six-week base showing extremely tight weekly price action, which is constructive and usually leads to a continued move higher.

APLD

APLD is in a position where it can be bought on both strength or weakness. Constructive weakness can be used to buy against key support at the confluence of its $34.86 pivot and 10-day SMA, which is the easiest way to manage risk. However, if volume is clearly well above average for the day, strength can be bought as well, as long as you have a tight, logical sell stop.

CIFR

CIFR picked up volume as it continued to push through resistance last Friday and looks like it's setting up to continue higher, and finish off the right side of its current base.

EOSE

EOSE has pushed up the right side of its current base on increasing and heavy volume over the last few weeks. With a bit more time, it looks like it's setting up for a big breakout that could lead to a powerful move higher. I am watching for another buy/add area to develop with tight logical stops, whether that be on strength or weakness.

IREN

IREN has blasted powerfully up the right side of its current consolidation, offering a few early entry areas along the way. This is a big leader in its space, and with a little more time, I'm watching for another entry area to develop with optimal risk/reward.

BE

BE blasted out of a double bottom base on heavy volume just seven sessions ago. It has since broken out again through its prior all-time high. Now it's a matter of seeing how this breakout develops to try and find an entry with optimal risk reward.

OKLO

OKLO is the performance enhancer of the bunch. However, if it can manage to push through the prior gap down and get moving up the right side of its current consolidation on heavy volume, it could lead to a powerful move higher.