TML Report November 12, 2025

Market Overview

Last week’s sharp selloff ended on Friday, with all of the major indexes bouncing at logical support levels. The NASDAQ, S&P 500, and DOW all shook out to, or below, their key 50-day SMAs, while the Russell ultimately shook out below its 65-day EMA. The DOW finished the session at a new all-time high, the S&P 500 finished above its 10-day SMA for the third day in a row, the NASDAQ has found support at its 21-day SMA, while the small-cap index is resting above its 50-day SMA.

The market’s leadership is undergoing intense rotation. Some of the stocks that have led the way since April are still showing major weakness after massive moves over a very short period, while others continue to ride up their short-term 10-day SMAs, ignoring all weakness in the general market. Many are currently testing key moving averages.

At the end of the day, my Long Watch list shrank notably, with no apparent signs of where rotation is headed. Based on my assessment of the market’s leadership today, versus a few weeks ago, I am surprised at how well the major indexes have continued to hold up on a relative basis. It was noticeably harder to find stocks worth discussing out today.

Today’s list is what’s continuing to hold up, much more than potential actionable setups. There are still quite a few big leaders like SNDK, WDC, STX, CIEN, etc that remain in powerful channels to the upside. We will discuss these on Friday.

QQQ

The NASDAQ is looking healthy and constructive despite last week’s sharp sell-off. Last Friday’s shakeout below the 50-DMA was exactly how you want to see it, and this week’s rally back above the 21-day SMA and then holding tight is incredibly sound action, despite all the volatility in the NASDAQ’s leadership.

SPY

Just as the NASDAQ did, the S&P 500 shook out constructively below the 50-day SMA last Friday and then rallied this week even more powerfully. The S&P 500 finished above its 10-day SMA for the third day in a row, not far off its prior all-time high.

IWM

The Russell 2000 is still the weakest of the bunch. It shook out below its 65-day EMA, and is still the only major index trading below its prior all-time high from 2024.

DIA

The DOW was the strongest index of the bunch this afternoon. It closed at a new all-time high.

Focus List

AMD

AMD closed only slightly below its 23-day SMA last Friday and is now trading well above its 10-day SMA, just a bit below its all-time high.

GOOGL

GOOGL held up above its 10-day SMA last Friday and has remained there, just a tad below new all-time highs.