The TML Talk | October 9th, 2025
Ross
Ross is a co-founder of TraderLion and Deepvue. He was mentored by William O’Neil, and co-authored The Model Book of Greatest Stock Market Winners at WON + Co.
October 10, 2025
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Weekly Market Summary
Market Overview
Major indexes demonstrated sustained strength throughout the week, with the NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500 continuing to make new all-time highs on constructive price action. The technical character remained healthy across all major indices, with the NASDAQ showing inside days on lighter volume well above average levels, indicating orderly consolidation at elevated levels. Distribution concerns remain minimal given the healthy rotation and broad leadership participation, with any potential distribution days occurring far enough back in time to be negligible in the context of the continued all-time high progression.
Small cap indexes confirmed their strength by approaching and trading near recent all-time highs, with the Russell 2000 completing a pattern remarkably similar to its 2018-2020 base formation followed by the sharp COVID recovery rally. This parallel structure suggests potential for significant continuation once sustained breakouts above prior highs are achieved, particularly with the accelerating up-volume characteristics on the monthly timeframe. The broader market foundation remains solid with the Dow Jones Industrial Average holding tight above its 21-day and 23-day moving averages, while sector rotation dynamics show increasing participation from previously dormant areas including biotechnology and nuclear energy themes.
Leadership characteristics reveal a market transitioning from multi-month consolidation patterns into potential acceleration phases, with established mega-cap technology names working through base structures alongside emerging themes in quantum computing, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and nuclear power generation. Setup quality trends show increasing numbers of stocks breaking out from tight consolidations with declining volume patterns, suggesting accumulation ahead of potential explosive moves. The forward outlook remains constructive with institutional positioning favoring both core technology leaders and emerging sector rotations, creating opportunities across multiple market timeframes and capitalization ranges.
Key Lessons & Quotes
“Watch your stocks, don’t get ahead of your rules, try and trade them on an individual basis.”
“Don’t buy garbage that doesn’t make money with earnings and sales like that.”
“My expectation is it will continue to be whippy, so if I get the rip from here in a few days, I wouldn’t think twice about selling it.”
“I always leave these winked out if you will, and I just open this up here so you can see the extra line of reference for confirmation.”
Actionable Takeaways
- Focus on individual stock behavior relative to key moving average support levels rather than attempting broad market timing, as the strongest alpha generation occurs through selective positioning during periods of orderly consolidation
- Monitor multiple moving average confluences including the 21-day simple, 21-day exponential, and 23-day exponential for optimal entry zones on pullbacks, particularly when stocks demonstrate tight price action above these support levels
- Implement strategic position sizing that accounts for stock personality and volatility characteristics, with performance enhancers warranting tighter stops and smaller initial positions compared to core holdings with established trend strength
- Emphasize volume confirmation on breakouts through declining tops lines and consolidation pivots, prioritizing overwhelming volume characteristics that signal institutional accumulation rather than retail participation
- Consider green line breakout opportunities on monthly chart patterns for stocks emerging from extended base formations, particularly those showing stage two characteristics with accelerating volume on the upside
- Utilize logarithmic charts for proper perspective on high-volatility names, ensuring apples-to-apples comparisons across different price levels when assessing pattern quality and candle characteristics
- Practice disciplined averaging strategies versus predetermined support levels rather than arbitrary price points, with clear line-in-the-sand stops that account for both position size and stock personality traits
Stock Mentions and Commentary
Automotive & Transportation
| Ticker | Setup Description & Key Themes |
|---|---|
TSLA |
Multi-month base formation showing four consecutive days of higher highs and higher lows with declining volume pattern; Holding above 21-day and 23-day moving average confluence with approaching earnings catalyst; Monitor for consolidation above 10-day moving average and declining tops line breakthrough with volume confirmation |
Financial Services & Blockchain
| Ticker | Setup Description & Key Themes |
|---|---|
BETR |
Recent IPO showing initial strength with above-average volume; Declining volume pattern on tight consolidation suggests accumulation phase; Monitor for breakout through consolidation pivot with volume expansion |
BLSH |
Extremely recent IPO with undercut of day-one lows completed; Blockchain exchange infrastructure with billion-dollar quarterly revenue projections; High volatility personality requiring strategic entry versus short-term moving average support; Watch for volume-confirmed push through declining tops line formed across recent highs |
CRCL |
Stablecoin infrastructure leader showing powerful launch pad formation with converging moving averages; No undercut of IPO low yet but strong right-side recovery pattern developing; Monitor for volume-confirmed breakthrough of declining tops line with stops at consolidation support levels |
COIN |
Cryptocurrency exchange leader holding above prior consolidation high near 382 level; 50-day moving average providing support structure with gap confluence; Bitcoin strength driving institutional crypto adoption theme; Watch for green line breakout continuation on monthly timeframe |
HOOD |
Fintech leader showing remarkable 10-day moving average adherence throughout extended trend; Multi-week consolidation building above 50-day moving average providing profitable trailing stop zone; Leading financial services group rotation with clean technical structure |
FUTU |
Hong Kong-based brokerage platform approaching green line breakout on monthly chart; Tight weekly consolidation above key moving averages suggesting accumulation; International expansion theme with 2021-style personality characteristics returning |
SOFI |
Digital finance platform holding above green line breakout level with earnings gap high providing critical support; Tighter consolidation pattern than peer group suggesting relative strength; Los Angeles-based operations with consistent growth profile in digital lending and financial services |
KLRN |
Very recent IPO with completed undercut of initial low showing classic U-turn pattern; Buy-now-pay-later platform with similar business model to established competitors; Liquid trading characteristics at 40-dollar price point; Monitor for volume-confirmed move through early resistance with tight stops |
GEMI |
Crypto platform showing recent IPO development pattern; Stablecoin infrastructure theme aligning with blockchain adoption trends; Watch for volume confirmation and pattern development alongside peer group leaders |
ETHA |
Ethereum ETF pulling back constructively to 50-day moving average after extended move; Institutional-quality cryptocurrency exposure showing typical personality of consolidation at key support; Monitor for volume-confirmed bounce off moving average confluence |
IBIT |
Bitcoin ETF showing half-retracement pullback to moving average support after gap breakout to new highs; Classic pattern suggesting potential for next leg higher once moving averages catch up to price; Institutional crypto exposure with superior liquidity characteristics |
Biotechnology & Healthcare
| Ticker | Setup Description & Key Themes |
|---|---|
CDTX |
Biotech leader showing explosive flag pattern with high-volume accumulation; Performance enhancer candidate for short-term swing trades capturing one-to-three day momentum moves; Monitor for extended moves off moving average support |
QURE |
Gene therapy specialist demonstrating strong relative strength in biotech group rotation; Suitable for performance enhancer positioning on volume-confirmed strength; Watch for tight consolidation above moving averages for optimal entry zones |
INDV |
Recent IPO with exceptional earnings and sales characteristics showing classic U-turn pattern; Billion-dollar quarterly revenue expectations with profitable operations rare for biotech IPOs; Beautiful setup across all three timeframes suggesting potential for explosive move on volume confirmation; Watch versus 50-day moving average support or on strength through declining tops line |
CELC |
Biotech showing tight consolidation pattern with quarterly revenues demonstrating solid fundamental backing; Tiny cup-with-handle formation developing above 10-day moving average; Monitor for volume expansion on breakout attempt |
ALNY |
Profitable biotech leader with billion-dollar quarterly revenue run rate providing sector leadership quality; Rare combination of growth and profitability in biotech space; Watch for consolidation resolution with volume confirmation |
Technology Infrastructure & Semiconductors
| Ticker | Setup Description & Key Themes |
|---|---|
NVDA |
AI infrastructure leader reclaiming 50-day moving average after consolidation period; Relative strength line requires recovery above 21-day moving average for momentum confirmation; Benchmark semiconductor name showing signs of accumulation after pullback |
AMD |
Semiconductor leader following through on green line breakout with accelerating monthly volume; OpenAI partnership announcement catalyzing institutional interest; Historically last semiconductor name to move but tends to show explosive catch-up characteristics once initiated |
AVGO |
Semiconductor equipment and specialty chip leader showing tight flag pattern consolidation; OpenAI chip-building partnership driving institutional accumulation narrative; Revenue projections from 63 billion to 86 billion over next two years demonstrating extraordinary growth trajectory; Watch for strength through consolidation pivot with stops at 21-day moving average |
ALAB |
AI infrastructure connectivity specialist showing support at purple line confluence with moving averages; Optical networking and data center cabling provider for hyperscale deployments; Monitor for tightening above 21-day simple and 23-day exponential before potential acceleration phase |
CRWV |
AI cloud infrastructure provider showing double high-volume-extreme pattern suggesting major accumulation; Trading above critical 140-level gap support with 10-day moving average reclaim; Similar precedent patterns to eBay and PLTR IPO developments; High volatility personality requiring strategic position sizing with line-in-the-sand at gap support confluence |
CRDO |
Specialty chip maker showing second pullback to 50-day moving average within extended uptrend; Declining tops line providing resistance alongside 21-day moving average recovery zone; Seven consecutive up months on monthly chart suggesting powerful momentum characteristics; Monitor for volume-confirmed strength through consolidation pivot with stops at moving average confluence |
SITM |
Semiconductor specialty name approaching major green line breakout on monthly timeframe after extended base formation; Tight action above 10-day moving average with declining volume suggesting accumulation phase; Strong earnings and sales characteristics with favorable revenue estimates; Watch for overwhelming volume on breakthrough of declining tops line with stops at 10-day or short-term consolidation support |
MU |
Memory chip leader showing extended move requiring consolidation; Previous positioning opportunities missed during optimal entry zones at moving average support |
Software & Cloud Services
| Ticker | Setup Description & Key Themes |
|---|---|
PLTR |
AI and government data platform showing volatile personality with outside-day recovery holding 10-day moving average; Hammer candle formation with volume pickup suggesting potential for continuation; High-volatility characteristics requiring patience for constructive weakness entries rather than strength chasing; Watch for breakthrough of 200-level consolidation with stops at 10-day moving average |
SNOW |
Cloud data platform showing strength with moving average convergence providing support structure; IT services and software group rotation leader demonstrating institutional accumulation; Monitor for continuation through prior resistance levels |
NET |
Cloud infrastructure and partial cybersecurity provider working on green line breakout attempt; Tightening above 50-day moving average suggesting accumulation phase; Software group leader with potential for explosive move on volume-confirmed breakthrough to new all-time highs |
ZS |
Cybersecurity software leader building new base structure after extended prior move; Green line breakout level only extending back several months suggesting early-stage potential; Whippy personality requiring strategic entry timing; Monitor for massive volume breakout characteristics given group leadership status alongside Crowd |
CRWD |
Cybersecurity leader already achieving new all-time highs above green line breakout level; Benchmark software security name showing relative strength advantage over peer group; High liquidity with institutional backing; Watch for consolidation above recent highs before next potential acceleration phase |
FIGR |
Recent IPO in fintech lending space showing tight consolidation development; Housing-based loan provider with emerging pattern quality; Monitor alongside better-established fintech leaders for group confirmation |
FIG |
Design collaboration platform showing powerful bounce off 50-day moving average after OpenAI connected apps integration announcement; Daily-use design tool with established user base and institutional backing; Legitimate revenue stream with strong technical recovery pattern; Watch for continuation of strength off moving average support |
Consumer Discretionary & Entertainment
| Ticker | Setup Description & Key Themes |
|---|---|
STUB |
Secondary ticket marketplace showing completed IPO undercut with big outside-day reversal on huge volume; Inside-day consolidation on declining volume confirming accumulation pattern; Liquidity leader in secondary ticket market alongside primary providers; Watch for volume-confirmed continuation of initial thrust off lows |
Energy & Nuclear Power
| Ticker | Setup Description & Key Themes |
|---|---|
GEV |
Nuclear power generation leader showing 65-day exponential moving average adherence throughout trend; Moving averages beginning to expand higher after tight convergence suggesting acceleration potential; Clean energy and nuclear renaissance theme with legitimate product development; Bellwether for nuclear group including OKLO, NNE, SMR, VST, and NRG; Watch for volume-confirmed push through declining tops line and consolidation pivot with stops at moving average confluence |
OKLO |
Small nuclear technology company showing tiny cup-with-handle formation above 10-day moving average; Already experienced significant move off lows requiring careful position sizing; Performance enhancer candidate given extended nature and smaller market capitalization; Monitor tight above 10-day with awareness of potential volatility on any pullback |
Aerospace & Satellite Technology
| Ticker | Setup Description & Key Themes |
|---|---|
BKSY |
Satellite technology provider showing explosive 50-percent-plus move off 23-day moving average in seven sessions; Space infrastructure theme with group momentum; Getting support above prior high suggesting continuation potential; Performance enhancer candidate if consolidation develops with volume characteristics |
RKLB |
Space launch services leader showing extended move from recent support levels; Neutron project funding providing fundamental catalyst for institutional interest; Holding above 50-day moving average in higher-highs pattern |
VOYG |
Satellite space laboratory showing IPO U-turn development with legitimate revenue stream; Space theme participant requiring volume confirmation for pattern validation; Monitor for accumulation characteristics and moving average support development |
Data Centers & Infrastructure
| Ticker | Setup Description & Key Themes |
|---|---|
CORZ |
AI data center infrastructure showing sloppy base structure but powerful monthly green line breakout potential; Following group leaders including IREN, WULF, and APLD in hyperscale infrastructure theme; Performance enhancer strictly for volume-confirmed breakout with tight sell stop given personality concerns; Recent shake to 21-day and 23-day moving average providing potential entry zone for volume-confirmed strength through prior high |
GLXY |
Crypto blockchain and AI data center hybrid showing nearly double performance since September; Spectacular earnings and sales characteristics with institutional-quality fundamentals; Extremely whippy personality making timing difficult but providing tradeable setups on moving average pullbacks; Best entry zones occur at 21-day exponential or 23-day exponential moving average support with tight line-in-the-sand stops |
Satellite Communications
| Ticker | Setup Description & Key Themes |
|---|---|
SATS |
Satellite communications combining Boost Mobile, Dish Networks, and Sling TV with SpaceX spectrum sale agreement for satellite service; Highest volume ever on news catalyst with no shake into gap support; Technically exceptional pattern despite concerning earnings and sales deceleration; Fundamental quality concerns override technical attractiveness per William O’Neil methodology requiring caution |
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