The TML Talk | September 12th, 2025

Market Overview

• This week, markets roared to new all-time highs with unwavering momentum, as the Nasdaq surged straight up since last Friday, poking through Wednesday and closing higher through Friday on consistent above-average volume, confirming a breakout despite being the weakest index. The Dow blasted decisively above prior highs for broad confirmation, while the S&P traced the Nasdaq’s path but edged lower Friday, holding tight without distribution, underscoring a healthy cooperative environment. Small caps shrugged off midweek dips to the 10-day line, reclaiming new highs Thursday on light Friday volume, highlighting expanding breadth and leadership resilience amid earnings wind-down.
• Rotational vigor into biotech/pharma bull flags and construction/specialty retail drove breadth expansion, with stair-step resolutions on light downside volume evidencing institutional conviction, as software/IT services rotated back in, offsetting semiconductor breathers and amplifying the rally’s vitality. Energy/uranium doubled on thematic fire, joining gold’s tight leg higher, while crypto paused briefly, bucking norms and reinforcing dynamic undertones without damage, as Chinese liquid names joined the advance.
• Leaders maintained composure at supports like 50-day lines, forging tight consolidations with higher highs/lows, flagging nascent setups in AI proxies and high-growth semis. Emerging patterns in uranium holds and EV confirmations, alongside ebbing volatility, signal a terrain primed for selective surges. With averages intact and catalysts like FOMC looming, this uptrend gears for extended gains, spotlighting names with directional thrust and rotational backing.

Key Lessons and Quotes

• “One of the most frustrating patterns in trading is the ‘mental health position’—that small nibble I take out of FOMO, convinced a stock is about to leave the station without me, only to watch it shake out and force me to sit on a tiny stake while it consolidates. I’ve learned the hard way that this habit stems from impatience, not conviction; it rarely pays off and often distracts from better opportunities. The real discipline lies in waiting for the optimal setup—whether it’s a tight U-turn at support or a volume-backed break—rather than chasing with irrelevant size. If you can’t commit fully without a clear edge, stay out and preserve your focus for trades that align with your rules.”
• “Volatility isn’t just a feature of certain stocks; it’s a test of your personality fit as a trader. I’ve stared at charts with explosive potential, only to realize their wide, loose swings turn me into a nervous wreck, constantly second-guessing holds even when the structure remains intact. Experience has taught me that no amount of fundamental strength or group momentum justifies owning something that disrupts your mental game. Always assess if the stock’s behavior—tight and directional versus erratic and churning—matches your tolerance; forcing a fit leads to emotional exits and missed gains on more compatible names.”
• “Seasonality can whisper warnings, like the treacherous late September stretch that’s burned traders nine out of thirteen times, but ignoring current action to chase ghosts is a recipe for regret. I’ve felt the pull to lighten up preemptively, only to watch healthy rotations and leader resilience turn pullbacks into buying chances. The evergreen truth: markets don’t follow calendars; they follow price and volume. Stay anchored to the leaders’ behavior—higher highs/lows on average volume—and let data override historical noise, adjusting only if distribution emerges, not hypothetical dates.”
• “Group rotation isn’t luck; it’s the market’s way of signaling where smart money flows, as seen when biotech flags resolve in unison or software names reclaim their averages amid broader weakness. Too often, I dismissed clustered patterns as coincidence, missing the institutional footprint of accumulation across peers. Now, I prioritize setups validated by sector breadth—similar power moves, light downside volume—over isolated charts. This alignment amplifies conviction, turning good trades into portfolio drivers; ignore it, and even strong names falter without thematic tailwinds.”

Actionable Takeaways

• Capitalize on Rotational Flows: Target broadening sectors like biotech/pharma with bull flag resolutions on light volume, entering on upside breaks to harness group strength while setting tight stops at key averages for control.
• Prioritize Tight Personalities: Focus on liquid names shifting to organized action at green-line levels, buying strength through pivots with confluence supports for manageable holds in leading themes.
• Anticipate FOMC Outcomes: Position for rate cut reactions by watching leaders for higher highs/lows on weekly/monthly, adding on constructive dips to 50-day lines if volume confirms.
• Buy Weakness Within Strength: Use faux failures on lighter volume for entries at prior pivots, demanding intraday U-turns above averages to validate re-accumulation.
• Scale with Mental Health Positions: Initiate small nibbles in FOMO-prone stocks like IPOs, adding on holds or weakness to preserve cushion, exiting on breaks for discipline.
• Demand Group Confirmation: Validate plays in energy/uranium with similar power moves across tickers, avoiding isolated volatility by awaiting breadth and earnings catalysts.

Stock Mentions and Commentary

Communication Services – Interactive Media & Services:

• $RBLX: Tightening post-50-day hold with gap through 23-day, higher highs/lows intact; core leader nearing green-line, favor buys on strength through highs with 21-day stops or careful adds on weakness.
• $WBTN: High tight flag tightening with highest volume ever and user growth; performance enhancer in interactive, monitor for overwhelming volume on pushes through highs with stops near 10-day.
• $PSKY: Bull flag IPO followed through higher, impressive power; performance enhancer in movies, monitor for tighten-up without low undercut.

Consumer Discretionary – Automobiles & Specialty Retail:

• $MOD: Bull flag with light volume recovery post-shake, earnings catalyst intact; performance enhancer in auto, watch for tightening and resolution higher if group rotates back.
• $TSLA: Sideways grind with higher highs/lows nearing resistance; anticipation core in EV/ride-share, monitor for volume push through highs or weakness to 50/65-day for patient adds.
• $ZK: Chinese EV in group confirmation with Tesla, constructive action; performance enhancer, watch for resolution with liquid peers if China strengthens.

Financials – Capital Markets, FinTech, & Crypto Infrastructure:

• $COIN: Broke through prior highs with volume pickup after tight weeks, crypto hot; performance enhancer, monitor for gap close and green-line push if Bitcoin recovers.
• $FUTU: Tight support at 21/23-day in green-line anticipation, powerful history; performance enhancer in fintech, favor buys on strength through highs with tight stops if tightens.
• $HOOD: Gap up post-S&P add, back in play after wide/loose phase; core focus in markets, watch for fade to gap/averages for re-adds on constructive weakness.
• $SOFI: Getting tighter post-wide/loose, sitting above prior highs nearing green-line; performance enhancer in lending, monitor for personality change on breakout if group shapes up.

Health Care – Biotechnology:

• $ALNY: Constructive bull flag below 10-day with tapered volume, profitable revenues/growth; better biotech, watch for 21-day catch-up and U-turn for potential entries or adds on bounce.
• $CDTX: Stair-step bull flag with light volume pullback, group rotation strong; performance enhancer, monitor for resolution higher as biotechs broaden.
• $COGT: Holding 10-day post-reversal, wide/loose but group traction; performance enhancer, track for shape-up on consolidation pivot with 21/23-day stops.
• $HNGE: Wide/loose after doubled move, pulled back on lighter volume holding averages; performance enhancer, monitor for resolution higher if tightens, but likely last on list due to whipsaw.
• $IDXX: Tight bull flag above 21-day with constructive shakeout hammer; performance enhancer in equipment, favor buys on strength through highs with minimal risk to 21-day.
• $IONS: Flag-like behavior with positive earnings/revenues, liquid in group; performance enhancer, monitor for tighten-up and power if biotechs persist.

Industrials – Aerospace & Defense, Infrastructure:

• $CAR: Tight channel post-breakout, similar to COIN resolution; performance enhancer in auto, monitor for push toward 50-day on volume.
• $BKSY: Phenomenal follow-through on volume, closing through 50-day post-tight lows; performance enhancer in space, watch for right-side build on monthly for potential entries.
• $PSIX: Tight sideways post-triple churning, higher highs/lows holding 50-day; performance enhancer in electrical, monitor for resolution through resistance with confluence stops.

Information Technology – Semiconductors, Software, & AI Infrastructure:

• $AMSC: High-tight flag definition with double in <7 weeks, wide/loose but power intact; performance enhancer in semis, watch for personality reclamation on push through highs.
• $AMD: Below 50-day but pushing DTL, action at 65-day constructive; potential enhancer in semis, monitor for volume anticipation through pivot or resolution higher.
• $CLS: Big winner with flag work post-hard trade, later stage but strong; potential enhancer, monitor for personality change on green-line if tightens.
• $CRWV: Massive power with new base build post-undercut shakeout; performance enhancer in AI, watch for tighten-up above 50-day for position potential.
• $IONQ: Big weekly breakout with retest hold, government contracts catalyst; performance enhancer in quantum, watch for new highs if group surges.
• $LASR: Amazingly tight with RS phase intact through market whip; performance enhancer in laser semis, monitor for explosion on volume if group leads.
• $NVDA: Recovering post-earnings in semis comeback, big cap leader; core in semis, watch for resolution higher as manufacturers/equipment rotate back.
• $QBTS: Screaming quantum back in play with big move; performance enhancer, monitor for confirmation if group surges.
• $RGTI: Quantum play with percentage surge catching eye; performance enhancer, watch for momentum if thematic rotates favorably.
• $SNOW: Back in play post-earnings catalyst after fell off; big leader enhancer in software, monitor for resolution if group rotates in.
• $SOUN: Tightening with consistent higher lows and volume return; performance enhancer in AI, monitor for green-line push if personality changes.
• $TTMI: Reclaim 50-day via 65 EMA post-earnings, sideways after triple; performance enhancer in tech, monitor build for more if constructive.

Materials – Industrial Metals & Mining:

• $LEU: Powerhouse in uranium group with giant move, earnings/sales fine; performance enhancer, monitor for tighten if energy persists.
• $MP: US rare earth play with 50-day support adds; performance enhancer, monitor for bounce or U-turn if holds, cutting on gap below.
• $UUUU: Strong in uranium group with relative holds; performance enhancer, watch for resolution if sector broadens.

Thematic ETFs, IPOs, & Bitcoin Proxies:

• $GLD: Blasted higher with constructive 10-day shakeout, moving with growth; not typical hedge, watch for resolution higher if tightens.
• $ETHA: Great chart post-breather, Ethereum on fire; performance enhancer, monitor for momentum if crypto hot.
• $IBIT: Longer-term great as Bitcoin recovers; performance enhancer, watch for new highs if sector rotates back.

Utilities – Nuclear Power:

• $GEV: New base on base with 65-day support reclaiming 50; big leader in energy/nuclear, watch for constructive weakness above key levels.
• $OKLO: Wide/whippy/loose but tightened above 50-day; performance enhancer in nuclear, monitor for personality if group confirms.