The TML Talk | August 22nd, 2025

Market Overview

• This week, markets roared back with commanding strength, erasing last week’s pullback as the Nasdaq and S&P surged to within a whisker of all-time highs, fueled by a constructive Fed outlook and robust accumulation. The Nasdaq bounced sharply off its 50-day and 10-week lines, closing with powerful weekly gains, while the S&P held its 21-day line, showcasing superior resilience. Small caps stole the show, leading with outsized moves, while the Dow broke to new highs, reflecting broadening participation across indices, with no structural damage despite brief midweek volatility rattling larger portfolios.
• Rotational flows into construction, travel, and mining sectors underscored healthy breadth, with leaders holding firm against market shakes and negative news, signaling institutional conviction. The Fed’s rate cut signals at Jackson Hole amplified momentum, lifting sentiment while pushing indicators like NAAIM to near extremes, keeping the uptrend intact. Gold and crypto proxies rallied alongside growth stocks, defying traditional inverse correlations, further bolstering the market’s vibrant tone.
• Leaders maintained poise at critical supports like the 50-day, forming tight bases with high-volume breakouts, pointing to early-stage opportunities in high-growth sectors like biotech, semiconductors, and software. Fresh setups in liquid IPOs and construction plays, coupled with fading volatility, suggest a market poised for selective upside. As long as accumulation persists and key averages hold, this rally sets the stage for potential new highs, with focus on names exhibiting organized action and relative strength.

Actionable Takeaways

• Capitalize on Support Bounces: Target leaders holding 50-day or 10-week lines during market shakes, entering on volume-driven reversals to capture upside while setting tight stops at logical supports.
• Screen for Relative Strength: Sort up-on-volume names by 12-month RS to identify liquid setups in biotech or construction, prioritizing those with tight action and earnings catalysts for conviction.
• Favor Post-Earnings Clarity: Focus on names with reports cleared, buying tight consolidations near key averages; avoid whippy pre-earnings plays to sidestep volatility traps.
• Exercise Patience in Rotations: Track rotational flows into travel or mining sectors, waiting for high-quality setups to tighten at supports rather than chasing extended breakouts.
• Size for Mental Capital: Keep volatile IPOs or crypto proxies as small enhancers to limit emotional stress, preserving cash for disciplined entries in core leaders forming bases.
• Demand Group Confirmation: Prioritize setups in hot groups like semiconductors or software, validated by volume spikes and RS line upturns, avoiding isolated movers without thematic support.

Stock Mentions and Commentary

Communication Services – Interactive Media & Services:

• $GOOGL: Holding tight at 21-day support with strong volume, signaling benchmark resilience; core leader in tech, watch for green-line breakout potential.
• $META: Pulling back post-highs with tight action, showing AI-driven strength; core leader, monitor for breakout resumption above key averages.
• $RBLX: Holding 50-day support with relative strength, post-earnings resilience; core leader with breakout potential, favor green-line strength for adds.
• $RDDT: Explosive post-earnings breakout with beat-and-raise catalyst, now consolidating; high-conviction enhancer, watch for tight 10-day hold.
• $WBTN: Small-cap IPO surging on record volume, shaping for breakout; volatile enhancer, monitor for tighter setup in interactive media.

Consumer Discretionary – Automobiles & Specialty Retail:

• $CCL: Cruise stock rallying with group strength, forming bull flag; enhancer with momentum, watch for breakout above short-term averages.
• $MOD: Auto parts leader with powerful bull flag, post-earnings strength; enhancer in strong group, track for green-line breakout potential.
• $NCLH: Cruise name showing group confirmation, tightening at highs; enhancer with upside, favor volume-driven moves for entry.
• $RCL: Leading cruise stock with strong weekly action, holding supports; core position in travel, monitor for breakout continuation.
• $RSI: Online gaming platform rallying with group strength, whippy but promising; enhancer in gambling theme, watch for tight consolidation.
• $TSLA: VCP setup with rising RS line, showing post-earnings resilience; core EV leader, watch for tight pullbacks to key averages.
• $UBER: Sideways action with solid fundamentals, awaiting personality change; benchmark leader, track for breakout above resistance for conviction.
• $VIK: Cruise IPO with group momentum, shaping for breakout; enhancer with potential, watch for tight action at supports.
• $XPEV: Chinese EV showing relative strength, post-earnings volume surge; enhancer with breakout vibes, track for consolidation at averages.
• $ZK: Newer Chinese EV IPO with early-stage base, high volume; conditional enhancer, monitor for tighter setup confirmation.

Financials – Capital Markets, FinTech, & Crypto Infrastructure:

• $COIN: Crypto platform reclaiming key averages with strong volume; core leader in crypto, watch for breakout follow-through post-gap.
• $HOOD: Holding new highs with post-earnings resilience, showing leadership; top-tier core position, favor tight pullbacks for adds.
• $IREN: Bitcoin miner with massive volume, holding supports post-triple; volatile enhancer, watch for tighter action at key levels.
• $LMND: Insurance name surging off lows, showing high volatility; enhancer with doubling potential, monitor for pullbacks to supports.
• $SOFI: Tech-driven finance stair-stepping with institutional support; core position, favor tight consolidations for breakout entries.
• $WULF: Bitcoin mining IPO with record volume, whippy action; speculative enhancer, track for tighter setup to avoid volatility.

Health Care – Biotechnology:

• $AORT: Biotech forming tight bull flag, breaking out with group strength; enhancer with momentum, watch for consolidation at averages.
• $AUPH: Biotech with bull flag breakout, holding above 10-day; enhancer with group support, track for green-line continuation.
• $CDTX: Biotech stair-stepping with high volume, nearing resistance; enhancer in rotational group, monitor for breakout above averages.
• $CELC: High tight flag post-strong run, resilient vs. market; volatile enhancer, verify event risks for breakout potential.
• $CEM: AI-driven biotech with massive volume, shaping for breakout; high-potential enhancer, monitor for tighter action due to volatility.
• $COGT: Biotech tightening post-earnings, with group momentum; speculative enhancer, watch for right-side strength in rotation.
• $IDXX: Healthcare equipment nearing green-line breakout, strong revenues; core leader, watch for volume-driven moves at supports.
• $IRTC: Healthcare equipment showing group strength, whippy but promising; enhancer with potential, track for personality change at resistance.
• $NKTR: Biotech with tight consolidation, showing group strength; enhancer with potential, monitor for breakout above key averages.
• $RNA: Liquid biotech with constructive pullback, high volume; enhancer with breakout potential, watch for right-side consolidation.
• $SUPN: Biotech with post-earnings strength, shaping for breakout; enhancer with group support, track for tight consolidation at averages.
• $TARS: Biotech with accelerating revenues, shaping cup-and-handle; enhancer with green-line potential, monitor for tight breakout setup.
• $TEM: AI-driven biotech coiling after strong move, high volume; enhancer with potential, favor tight action for breakout cues.

Industrials – Aerospace & Defense, Infrastructure:

• $IBP: Construction leader with bull flag, showing high volume; core position in strong group, watch for green-line breakout cues.
• $PRIM: Construction stock with powerful bull flag, post-earnings strength; enhancer with momentum, track for consolidation at averages.
• $REZI: Building products surging with group strength, forming bull flag; enhancer with upside, favor volume-driven breakouts.
• $RKLB: Space tech pulling back post-breakout, holding key supports; enhancer in hot theme, watch for tight consolidation at averages.
• $STRL: Construction leader with doubled move, forming bull flag; core position, monitor for green-line breakout potential.
• $TPC: Fresh green-line breakout with massive earnings volume; enhancer with group support, watch for consolidation at key levels.

Information Technology – Semiconductors, Software, & AI Infrastructure:

• $ALAB: IPO leader with green-line breakout, holding above highs; core position in semis, watch for tight pullbacks to averages.
• $COMM: High tight flag with record volume, showing breakout potential; enhancer in tech, track for consolidation at supports.
• $CRDO: Semiconductor leader with 50-day bounce, strong weekly action; core position, favor strength at key averages for entries.
• $CYBR: Cybersecurity name shaping up with group strength, tight action; enhancer with breakout potential, watch for breakout above averages.
• $FIG: IPO with design/AI pedigree, forming early base; enhancer with high potential, monitor for tight consolidation post-earnings.
• $LASR: Semiconductor stock with bull flag, high volume breakout; enhancer with group momentum, track for strength at averages.
• $NBIS: Cybersecurity IPO with tight action, showing group support; enhancer with breakout potential, watch for volume-driven moves.
• $NET: Liquid cybersecurity leader doubling off lows, holding supports; core position, monitor for green-line breakout resumption.
• $PI: Semiconductor equipment nearing highs, showing resilience; enhancer with potential, track for tight breakout setup.
• $PLTR: AI leader with 50-day bounce, breaking out strongly; core position, favor pullbacks to key averages for entries.
• $PRCH: Software stair-stepper with quadrupling move, shaping base; enhancer with potential, watch for green-line breakout cues.
• $RBRK: Cybersecurity leader with tight consolidation, strong volume; enhancer with breakout potential, track for right-side strength.
• $SHOP: Big-cap benchmark with green-line breakout, tight action; core leader, monitor for strength above key averages.
• $SITM: Semiconductor equipment with breakout potential, holding supports; enhancer with group strength, watch for tight consolidation.
• $SMTC: Semiconductor name shaping up off lows, prior leader; enhancer with potential, monitor for earnings-driven breakout.
• $XMTR: Manufacturing tech with powerful move, shaping base; enhancer with doubling potential, watch for tight consolidation.

Materials – Industrial Metals & Mining:

• $MP: Rare earths leader with strong contracts, flagging tightly; enhancer with breakout potential, cautious on volatility until consolidated.

Thematic ETFs, IPOs, & Bitcoin Proxies:

• $ETHA: Ethereum proxy rallying with crypto strength, highly liquid; enhancer, watch for consolidation at key averages.
• $IBIT: Bitcoin proxy holding firm post-breather, steady action; enhancer for crypto exposure, track for group momentum.