State of the Market and Setups going into the Week
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
June 29, 2025
Market Action
QQQ – Continued trend into new highs above the moving averages. Expecting shakes along the way. We are later in a market cycle.
Bulls want to see us keep trending above the 10ema
Bears want us to reverse and take out multiple lows at once
Daily Chart of the QQQ.
IWM – Some indecision at the 200 sma.
IBIT – In a short flag, good action after the gaps up
Trends (4/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Above
Short-term – 21 ema – Above
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Above Rising
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Above Rising
Groups/Sectors
Deepvue Theme Tracker
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500.
Leadership
TSLA in the middle of the prior range, tightening, could go either way.
PLTR certainly a negative bar, needs to stick a strong day early next week
NVDA continuation higher
META some follow through up
HOOD tightening in a short flag at highs
MSTR fade but watching for a re-breakout
CRWD tight inside day
Key Moves
SATS from the focus list, strong push from the consolidation. fast mover
AS breakout, watching for follow through
Setups and Watchlist
ELF watching for a range breakout
KRUS Sushi. Watching for a consolidation breakout.
ORCL watching for a consolidation breakout
RDDT little whippy but subtle tightening, watching for a range breakout
MBLY tightening but would prefer one more pullback day before expansion. Self driving theme
CRK watching for a 10ema range breakout
GOGO watching for a range breakout
OSCR watching for a range breakout. would prefer a bit more tightness
ATRO watching for a range re-breakout
FROG watching for a range breakout through recent highs
CRWV tightening a bit to end the week as it pulls back to the prior range breakout. Watching for a reversal up. If it breaks the 21ema the setup is void
LYFT setting up in a flag. UBER also on watch for a range breakout
ARLO watching for a consolidation breakout
TEM forming a range here. Has frustrated many. Bit wild but watching for tightness and a range breakout
Today’s Watchlist in List form
Key Names
NVDA, TSLA, META, PLTR, MSTR, CRWD UBER HOOD
ELF KRUS ORCL RDDT MBLY CRK GOGO OSCR ATRO FROG CRWV LYFT ARLO TEM
Focus:
MSTR RDDT TEM
Themes
Strongest Themes: BTC, Miners, Software, Cyber, Nuclear Power
Market Thoughts & Focus
Decent number of setups this weekend. The Market continues to climb a wall of worry. PLTR on watch as a market gauge.
Mentally aware that we are on the longer end of a market cycle and that we are entering a more seasonally weak/choppy period.
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way
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